How to Create a Prediction Market using Privatized BitAssets TODAY!

[jakub]

too complicated

If you want to bet in favor of an event happening you buy the PM asset.
If you want to bet against you borrow and sell the PM asset.

It does not sound complicated, does it?
Even more so if it's wrapped in a good UI hiding away the underlying process.

The only concerns left are those two:
(1) the legal aspect (but I'm sure those PM assets can be issued by businesses registered in jurisdiction where this is not an issue)
(2) the issuer trust aspect (as is the case with all private bit-assets and UIAs)
Otherwise it's just a matter of time before someone does it and makes tons of money on it.

[jakub]

Won't this lead to a massive bloat in issued assets?

Did @bytemaster address the bloat problem?
It's a big concern for me.

Yes I did in the mumble session.

Thanks, your explanation made sense to me.
The only outstanding concern is whether the blockchain itself can handle the bloat if hundreds of assets get created as one-off events.
But I guess the answer is that we are going to be OK in terms of blockchain efficiency.

[bytemaster]

Won't this lead to a massive bloat in issued assets?

Did @bytemaster address the bloat problem?
It's a big concern for me.

Yes I did in the mumble session.

[jakub]

Won't this lead to a massive bloat in issued assets?

Did @bytemaster address the bloat problem?
It's a big concern for me.

[betax]

The backed is rather complex, but this does not mean the fronted could hide all this.

[Akado]

if it's cancelled, part should be converted into fees for the dac. neither of the events you bet on happened so... the house wins.

[alt]

If an asset cannot be reused then the issuer will need to recover at least the cost of issuing the asset per event.  It seems as if we are caught between preventing spam, and promoting use. 

Am I correct in my assumption that prediction market assets cannot be reused? 

Won't this lead to a massive bloat in issued assets?

yes,this is the issue I care about.
and some other thing you need consider:
what if the event don't happen? no win or lose, it's just delay for ever.

i think then you can settle at 0.5 because it would be a tie!

I think the best end should be nobody will  lose if the event is cancel.
if you settle the price at 0.5, still somebody win and others lose.

You can always voluntarily settle / cover at the market price.   BitUSD is similar to a prediction market that never ends, the only difference is that the range / leverage of BitUSD price relative to BTS is greater.  Prediction Markets have sufficient collateral at all times to cover being wrong.

As far as complexity goes, most of it could be automated away in the GUI.   You can "borrow and sell" in one transaction.

so currently there is no way to force all asset settle, and the asset can't be reset, then be reused for other prediction event right?

[bytemaster]

If an asset cannot be reused then the issuer will need to recover at least the cost of issuing the asset per event.  It seems as if we are caught between preventing spam, and promoting use. 

Am I correct in my assumption that prediction market assets cannot be reused? 

Won't this lead to a massive bloat in issued assets?

yes,this is the issue I care about.
and some other thing you need consider:
what if the event don't happen? no win or lose, it's just delay for ever.

i think then you can settle at 0.5 because it would be a tie!

You can always voluntarily settle / cover at the market price.   BitUSD is similar to a prediction market that never ends, the only difference is that the range / leverage of BitUSD price relative to BTS is greater.  Prediction Markets have sufficient collateral at all times to cover being wrong.

As far as complexity goes, most of it could be automated away in the GUI.   You can "borrow and sell" in one transaction.

[Shentist]

If an asset cannot be reused then the issuer will need to recover at least the cost of issuing the asset per event.  It seems as if we are caught between preventing spam, and promoting use. 

Am I correct in my assumption that prediction market assets cannot be reused? 

Won't this lead to a massive bloat in issued assets?

yes,this is the issue I care about.
and some other thing you need consider:
what if the event don't happen? no win or lose, it's just delay for ever.

i think then you can settle at 0.5 because it would be a tie!

[alt]

If an asset cannot be reused then the issuer will need to recover at least the cost of issuing the asset per event.  It seems as if we are caught between preventing spam, and promoting use. 

Am I correct in my assumption that prediction market assets cannot be reused? 

Won't this lead to a massive bloat in issued assets?

yes,this is the issue I care about.
and some other thing you need consider:
what if the event don't happen? no win or lose, it's just delay for ever.

[Shentist]

@bytemaster

you said the GUI does not do the right thing.

if someone is creating a prediction asset can i borrow it like BTC or USD as a GUI user?

[fav]

too complicated

[Akado]

Still in time for UEFA Champions League

[Shentist]

If an asset cannot be reused then the issuer will need to recover at least the cost of issuing the asset per event.  It seems as if we are caught between preventing spam, and promoting use. 

Am I correct in my assumption that prediction market assets cannot be reused? 

Won't this lead to a massive bloat in issued assets?

good point - can the asset be reused after it got settled?

[donkeypong]

It's cool, but it sounds like a niche game for someone who can follow through with all your steps. That pretty much limits its use to a few nerds (term used affectionately) for the time being, and that means not enough volume. If someone can make an interface to exploit this, that would be awesome.

Otherwise, waste of time.