Author Topic: Prediction Markets now available in GUI  (Read 14410 times)

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Offline puppies

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If you want to set the committee as the decider for your PMs.  I'll create the proposals, and vote.  Even better might be the committee-trade account.  It's still owned by the committee, but doesn't have the same level of difficulty to complete as it's currently only a 2 of 4 multi Sig.
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Offline sports-owner

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@morpheus Thanks for the attention, and the added liquidity.

@fuzzy I sent you some Trump and Clinton PMA's to hand out on twitter.  Hopefully you can get some rabid Trump or Clinton fans to notice us.

Offline fav

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I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

Augur will be the biggest competitor as far as a decentralized prediction market goes.  They look to have a well thought-out process and design and are well funded.  They have some screenshots on their site.

http://www.augur.net/

and you can test the early alpha too

Offline svk

Great feedback guys, thanks!
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TravelsAsia

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I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

Augur will be the biggest competitor as far as a decentralized prediction market goes.  They look to have a well thought-out process and design and are well funded.  They have some screenshots on their site.

http://www.augur.net/

if we did anything close to either Augur or the link I posted above, it would be a good direction. Friendly is key!

Offline morpheus

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I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

Augur will be the biggest competitor as far as a decentralized prediction market goes.  They look to have a well thought-out process and design and are well funded.  They have some screenshots on their site.

http://www.augur.net/

Offline morpheus

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@sports-owner

The PM can also be used as a binary options market.  Some users have requested being able to trade assets such as oil and stock indicies.  Perhaps we could create a few markets for these assets.

For example,

Traditional vanilla options markets are structured and labeled like this:

SPX160331C1900 - where SPX represents the stock index (S&P 500), 160331 represents March 31, 2016, C means it is a call option, and 1900 represents a strike price of 1900 for the option contract


I propose creating the following markets initially:

WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000     -     If the price of WTI CRUDE OIL is above $40.00 on December 30, 2016 17:00 ET, then 1 share of WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000 is worth 1 bts.  I use $40.00 because current futures contracts for the December contract are just under $40. 

SPX123016_187500 - If the price of the S&P 500 is above $1875.00 on December 30, 2016 at 4:00 PM ET, then 1 share of SPX123016_187500 is worth 1 bts.  I use $1875.00 becasue current futures contracts for the December contract are just above $1875.00

Here you are.

http://cryptofresh.com/a/WTICRUDE
http://cryptofresh.com/a/SPFIVE

enjoy

Thanks

https://bitcointalk.org/index.php?topic=1344639.new#new
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,21225.0.html

Offline Akado

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I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

http://financialproreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Capital-Option-affiliates-VIPaffilaites-VIP-Affiliates-binary-options-trading-platform.png

Anyone else like this look? It would make life so much easier for anyone wanting to participate that doesn't have a crypto background?

Never used something like that but seems simple, up or down, potential payout, etc. It immediately gives you the info you need. Complement that with a "help" feature/button and documentation to explain how to do it with more detail and examples and people should get it.

Seems pretty straightforward.
« Last Edit: January 28, 2016, 11:03:06 pm by Akado »
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TravelsAsia

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I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

http://financialproreview.com/wp-content/uploads/2014/12/Capital-Option-affiliates-VIPaffilaites-VIP-Affiliates-binary-options-trading-platform.png

Anyone else like this look? It would make life so much easier for anyone wanting to participate that doesn't have a crypto background?

Offline Akado

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Should we have a prefix for a prediction market to stop asset names getting untidy?

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Offline sports-owner

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I'm not qualified to write these markets nor to close them out.  You could create a UIA and call it SCIENCE then open prediction markets that are backed by SCIENCE.  You could issue SCIENCE only to qualified Scientist. These Scientists could then bet, and be rewarded with more SCIENCE if they win.  I don't know how you could give them a monetary benefit outside of sharedropping on top of the SCIENCE asset, since we wouldn't want non scientist to be able to purchase SCIENCE and bet with it 

From the moment I read about PMs on Bitshares I have been thinking about how we could make them more useful ( I don't care about outcomes of US elections too much, nor sports ). And I just found following idea, what do you think about it?
Quote
Hanson has been a vocal proponent of using prediction markets (or what he also calls “idea futures”) to reform how we deal with controversies in science, academia, and politics. In "Could Gambling Save Science", he writes:
Quote
If the primary way that academics are now rewarded for being right, rather than popular, is an informal process for staking their reputation, which has various biases because of its informality, and if we want a better reputation game, why not literally make bets and formalize the process?
Imagine a betting pool or market on most disputed science questions, with the going odds available to the popular media, and treated socially as the current academic consensus. Imagine that academics are expected to "put up or shut up" and accompany claims with at least token bets, and that statistics are collected on how well people do. Imagine that funding agencies subsidize pools on questions of interest to them, and that research labs pay for much of their research with winnings from previous pools. And imagine that anyone could play, either to take a stand on an important issue, or to insure against technological risk.
This would be an "idea futures" market, which I offer as an alternative to existing academic social institutions. Somewhat like a corn futures market, where one can bet on the future price of corn, here one bets on the future settlement of a present scientific controversy.

There are more ideas for usage of PMs. Here is the source.

Offline oldmine

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I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

https://www.predictious.com/economics/bitcoin-new-all-time-high-2016/2000

Offline sports-owner

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@sports-owner

The PM can also be used as a binary options market.  Some users have requested being able to trade assets such as oil and stock indicies.  Perhaps we could create a few markets for these assets.

For example,

Traditional vanilla options markets are structured and labeled like this:

SPX160331C1900 - where SPX represents the stock index (S&P 500), 160331 represents March 31, 2016, C means it is a call option, and 1900 represents a strike price of 1900 for the option contract


I propose creating the following markets initially:

WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000     -     If the price of WTI CRUDE OIL is above $40.00 on December 30, 2016 17:00 ET, then 1 share of WTICRUDEOIL123016_4000 is worth 1 bts.  I use $40.00 because current futures contracts for the December contract are just under $40. 

SPX123016_187500 - If the price of the S&P 500 is above $1875.00 on December 30, 2016 at 4:00 PM ET, then 1 share of SPX123016_187500 is worth 1 bts.  I use $1875.00 becasue current futures contracts for the December contract are just above $1875.00

Here you are.

http://cryptofresh.com/a/WTICRUDE
http://cryptofresh.com/a/SPFIVE

enjoy

iHashFury

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Should we have a prefix for a prediction market to stop asset names getting untidy?

Offline Empirical1.2

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I'd like to make the interface more suitable for prediction markets but to be honest I'm not sure how it should look like. Anyone have some examples of other binary market interfaces? Or would like to provide some mockups of how they imagine it should look like?

I don't know if there's anything useful here, but this is a political market that gained traction pretty fast and seems fairly simple to use.
https://www.predictit.org/Browse/Featured

I think the fact that you need to short and sell is the thing that complicates BTS prediction markets the most for the end user.

Also many users might be familiar with or want to make comparisons with traditional betting odds.
So it would be really good if the current PM price was also shown in traditional odds so people would know if it was a better/worse bet than they could get elsewhere. http://www.bettingexpert.com/blog/how-to-convert-odds

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