Author Topic: Prediction Markets now available in GUI  (Read 17733 times)

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Offline morpheus

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I have set SPORTS.SBLAFC to be resolved by commitee-trade.  I have created a new asset BTSPREDICT in response to https://www.reddit.com/r/BitShares/comments/43iyiq/will_bitshares_hit_12000000_in_market_cap_in/.  BTSPREDICT is to be resolved by the committee-account.  I have also modified WTICRUDE and SPFIVE to be resolved by the committee-account.  We will see which way of resolving works best.

Would it be possible to resolve by price feed?

Offline puppies

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BTW.. the title of this topic is a lie.

we - bitshares community - should name things properly. We should stop overpromise things. Right now this is at most a Proof of Concept.

How so?
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Offline noisy

BTW.. the title of this topic is a lie.

we - bitshares community - should name things properly. We should stop overpromise things. Right now this is at most a Proof of Concept.



Take a look on: https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,19625.msg251894.html - I have a crazy idea - lets convince cryptonomex developers to use livecoding.tv

Offline xeroc

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From what I realized by tests, we can reset the global_settle flag, but due to the fact that we cannot remove the settlement price, we cannot yet reuse prediction market assets.
I would propose to have the settlement price expire similar to price feeds by a definable parameter .. after that time, the asset should be re-useable to other prediction marktes if the global settle flag is reset.
before the expiration of the settlement price, the issue could withdraw customers unsettled assets, settle them for them and return the earnings (if any) minus fees or so.

But we certainly need to update the graphene base for this. Not sure if it requires a hardfork though, I assume we do!

Offline sports-owner

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Having as secondary description that would show up in the gui that we could use numbers in would be very userful.  It would be nice if WTICRUDE could show as WTICRUDE-16-12-30-20:00:00-$40.00 for example.  Preferred market would be great once we get enough bitasset liquidity to collateralize PMs with USD CNY or BTC.  Expiry and short and long descriptions would also be great.  If you could find a way to have borrow and sell be a single click in the GUI I think that would be a great simplifying feature as well.  Would have to explain somewhere why it takes more upfront to short an asset.  Thanks for all your hard work SVK.


In my opinion, all assets for prediction market should have separate prefix.

I agree.  Also being able to use numbers would be very useful.  While you are at it allow me to reuse markets.  EIther that or dramatically reduce the price of registering and closing out a PM, and have the PM decay after all assets are settled.  So names can be reused.

Did you see my post about adding description fields for assets?

Some fields I'm thinking would be useful are:
  • A long description
  • Preferred market, if you want the GUI to link to a non-BTS pair for example
  • Expiry
  • Short description of the condition

Any more you'd like to see? I could add an alternative symbol field that could include numbers..

What would you like to see included

Offline svk

In my opinion, all assets for prediction market should have separate prefix.

I agree.  Also being able to use numbers would be very useful.  While you are at it allow me to reuse markets.  EIther that or dramatically reduce the price of registering and closing out a PM, and have the PM decay after all assets are settled.  So names can be reused.

Did you see my post about adding description fields for assets?

Some fields I'm thinking would be useful are:
  • A long description
  • Preferred market, if you want the GUI to link to a non-BTS pair for example
  • Expiry
  • Short description of the condition

Any more you'd like to see? I could add an alternative symbol field that could include numbers..

What would you like to see included
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Offline sports-owner

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In my opinion, all assets for prediction market should have separate prefix.

I agree.  Also being able to use numbers would be very useful.  While you are at it allow me to reuse markets.  EIther that or dramatically reduce the price of registering and closing out a PM, and have the PM decay after all assets are settled.  So names can be reused.

Offline noisy

In my opinion, all assets for prediction market should have separate prefix.
Take a look on: https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,19625.msg251894.html - I have a crazy idea - lets convince cryptonomex developers to use livecoding.tv

Offline sports-owner

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I have set SPORTS.SBLAFC to be resolved by commitee-trade.  I have created a new asset BTSPREDICT in response to https://www.reddit.com/r/BitShares/comments/43iyiq/will_bitshares_hit_12000000_in_market_cap_in/.  BTSPREDICT is to be resolved by the committee-account.  I have also modified WTICRUDE and SPFIVE to be resolved by the committee-account.  We will see which way of resolving works best. 

Offline puppies

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@morpheus Thanks for the attention, and the added liquidity.

@fuzzy I sent you some Trump and Clinton PMA's to hand out on twitter.  Hopefully you can get some rabid Trump or Clinton fans to notice us.

can we get a little group to do so? 

also, remember anytime you sharedrop on beyond bitcoin volunteers and attendees, i will do my best to plug your token...unless i find it ridiculous, though hilarious, like (SPERM)...
I sent some REPGENSIXTEEN to my twitter sharebits account to help out, but I don't think its shown up yet.  Is the bot deposit function working properly?  Maybe I am just doing something wrong.
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Offline svk

Fyi i will be revamping the use of the descriptions field for prediction markets to be a serialized json object.

This is similar to how we defined delegate info in BTS 1, only this time the GUI will construct the json for you.

I think expiry, short_name, primary_markets and condition should be included as descriptive fields, what else do you think would be good to have?
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Offline tonyk

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@xeroc should shed some light on how exactly are PM assets reusable? (i.e. what needs to happen/be done before they are reused.
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline Akado

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If you want to set the committee as the decider for your PMs.  I'll create the proposals, and vote.  Even better might be the committee-trade account.  It's still owned by the committee, but doesn't have the same level of difficulty to complete as it's currently only a 2 of 4 multi Sig.

@puppies
Could you create one for "Bitcoin price inferior to $300 American Dollars before the halving?" Idk maybe with a bit more detail like "according to bitstamp" or something like that.



I think that's really the safer method and would set a good precedent. Either do that or allow people to vote for a "Prediction Markets Committee" where people voted in would share the multi signature account and serve as oracles. Don't know if that's over complicating things. I like the idea of using your shared committee account to do that

It will also be awesome to start these markets and tweet about them! People will start to come. Maybe make a thread where people can request what markets they would like to be done and your account would create them, what do you think? Maybe having a prediction markets section for that where we would then have on thread per market where people could discuss about them. The faster we do this the more market share we can grab.

People are impatiently waiting for augur and we can start immediately!
« Last Edit: January 30, 2016, 08:57:54 pm by Akado »
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Offline fuzzy

@morpheus Thanks for the attention, and the added liquidity.

@fuzzy I sent you some Trump and Clinton PMA's to hand out on twitter.  Hopefully you can get some rabid Trump or Clinton fans to notice us.

can we get a little group to do so? 

also, remember anytime you sharedrop on beyond bitcoin volunteers and attendees, i will do my best to plug your token...unless i find it ridiculous, though hilarious, like (SPERM)...
WhaleShares==DKP; BitShares is our Community! 
ShareBits and WhaleShares = Love :D

Offline sports-owner

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If you want to set the committee as the decider for your PMs.  I'll create the proposals, and vote.  Even better might be the committee-trade account.  It's still owned by the committee, but doesn't have the same level of difficulty to complete as it's currently only a 2 of 4 multi Sig.

I may take you up on that.  the committee trade account is something I hadn't thought of.  That could be the perfect solution.