I am gonna try and get all the facts about lisk in this post :
3900 Participants
14.000 BTC (BTC increased in value so more than 6M USD)
1000 BTC in XCP (XCP recently tripled its price with 80% being held by Lisk)
4 Exchanges offered an IOU.
If Yobit is a scam, but wants to treat its customers right without going bankrupt, it will have to purchase all the
Lisk it promised. Same for Bloombit. Openledger is very trustworthy, but its volume was too small. In case they are not
scams and Yobits volume is real, it will validate the current price, as people will have more trust in it.
The last 4 days Bitcoin started recovering by 2% up and Ethereum started going down by 20%.
If only 0.1% of Bitcoins volume was made in order to by Lisk and about 10% of Ethereums as well, then more than
10M USD are waiting to buy Lisk. Also many more people might sell their altcoins or buy bitcoin, to buy Lisk soon.
Given the recent success of Ethereum that went above 1B$, whose price increased a lot and has to do with smart contracts,
I would expect Lisk to have gone up because of that as well. Also don't forget that Lisk is include by Microsoft's Azure.
About 83-90M Lisk will be available to be traded not 100M, as some of them were not included in the crowdfunding
but also some people haven't validated their passphrases.
The DAO, Waves, Mycelium and other minor crowdfunding campaigns might pose as competitors (at least 'moneywise'),
as they took money that could potentially go to Lisk. However, they might have also created a positive buzz.
That's because their campaign's started after Lisk's and it was because of Lisk's success that they managed
to get the much money.
Poloniex will be one of the first exchanges and that is very significant, as most coins that have gotten into Poloniex
recently like Decred and Voxel etc were pumped. If Chinese exchanges include lisk as well, then the price will go even higher.
The PR for Lisk has been pretty good. Even Andreas Antonopoulos tweeted about it. There was a recent PR article
that claimed that Lisk's market cap is 250M. The general sentiment is well above 0.5$/Lisk
Now here is a list of many successful crowdfunding campaigns and their initial launch
These values are just estimates of the value increase in the first few days/months
compared to the money earned before the launch.
Ether 3-4x
NXT 2000x
BTS 2-10x
NEM 60x
Omni 20x
Maid 1-4x
Digix 2-5x
Factom 1-30x
Obits 2x
Bitcryst 10x
Supernet 2-3x
Storj 1-5x
Safe Exchange 10-20x
Neucoin 2-3x
Augur 2-25x
From the current IOU prices, I can see that 0.9$ is a very possible price, plus minus 0.1$ (as a bottom).
Then we could be heading even higher from there. Then I would say the top would be 2.5$