Author Topic: A Call to the Truthcoin Prediction Market  (Read 15583 times)

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Offline Stan

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Re: A Call to the Truthcoin Prediction Market
« Reply #45 on: April 29, 2014, 11:49:01 pm »
I really don't think Dan ever meant to show that Bitshares would not want to help you guys because you're the competition. To the contrary I think the whole point here is that *any* value-adding DAC idea can find a win-win arrangement with bitshares.

The usual deal is you honor at least 10% PTS and 10% AGS and in return you get to use bitshares_toolkit and get the support of everyone in the community. This is something you might want to do anyway if you use snapshots for allocation - better than dropping purely on bitcoin's utxo set!

Pretty soon there should be several DAC engineers who might be willing to contribute more focused effort in exchange for more equity in the DAC. I myself am intensely interested in Truthcoin and my grant from Bitshares allows me to work on any DAC that honors the social consensus. It's just a matter of still being at school .p2p taking up more time at the moment. The bitshares landscape will also look much different once XT and then .p2p/Lotto are launched.

In other words, don't turn your back to collaborating just yet! We want you guys!

We are interested.

The main limitation is that Bytemaster is heads-down with his whole team working to get XT out the door.

Truthcoin is one of the more intellectually deep DACs and it deserves much more mindshare than is available at this particular instant in time.  Hopefully we can thoroughly review their proposal in the next few weeks.

Nothing stops this community from contributing to the vetting of the ideas and recruiting of talent in the mean time.

For what it's worth, we did issue their first bitshares.org email account yesterday...   :)
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Offline santaclause102

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Re: A Call to the Truthcoin Prediction Market
« Reply #46 on: April 29, 2014, 11:58:14 pm »
any updates on this?
I am also curious about what is going on with this project.  Can anyone comment?

I am still working on the project in my free time, writing and reviewing my code for clarity and performance. Recently, I (finally) perfected Scaled Claims, which allow a PM to take on a final value between 0 and 1, which can be scaled and shifted to represent a price index such as the DJIA or a number of House of Representative seats (the two examples I used in the R code). I have yet to rewrite this in Python or document it. I also still have to write a FAQ and more clearly document the project's requirements.

For details of what I am working on, see the 'Pipeline' section of my GitHub ReadMe, which I update occasionally https://github.com/psztorc/Truthcoin#pipeline

One issue is the economic model. Should this create new currency units (in addition to creating shares)? I had originally planned to use Bitcoin, but this depends on the development of, for example, side chains / tree chains / whatever. I may use Bitcoin's UTXO set purely to gain network effects and testing (distributing the shares [not currency] to the developers [currently just me]).

Many individuals have expressed interest in the project via private message or email, including one developer here. However, no one has volunteered to do what is actually required, and commit a few weeks of undivided development attention. Currently, I am not comfortable hiring anyone, mainly because half-finished code is worthless.

Bitcoinfan indicated to me that Bitshares would be able to provide dedicated developers and/or funding-for-developers in exchange for proportional ownership of the project's shares, but I instead expressed the opinion that Dan would (understandably) be hesitant to fund something which might directly compete with his own project. While meeting with Dan, he indicated that he had not read the whitepaper/code/supporting-documentation, and that he would not be able to directly provide any funding. Nearly all of his questions were about how Truthcoin would compare to his BitsharesX + Feed(s) idea. I interpreted this as confirming my original expectations.

So I am not sure that there is any room for partnership, but Bitcoinfan remains very optimistic so I am leaving it to him to arrange.

I think the community has shown great interest in the project. When a few DACs are out and Invictus is a well recognized brand/company it will be much easier to hire developers. I'd like to see a collaboration!

Offline tonyk

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Re: A Call to the Truthcoin Prediction Market
« Reply #47 on: April 30, 2014, 04:27:57 pm »
Read the white paper! (several times) 
Great Idea! Well almost…

Let me get some things straight.
So the owners/voters try to guess what the others vote will be, and not what the actual outcome would be! Their incentive is vote with the majority not to guess correctly! If they want to gain by correctly predicting the outcome they must become traders! I.e. bet correctly not vote for the correct outcome.

The consequence of this is that their voting (as a whole, as a group) is completely unrelated to how well the market they are  supposed to care about performs. If they (as a majority) always get the prediction correctly or they are always wrong the actual (trading) market will perform as it wants- i.e. successfully or unsuccessfully based on totally unrelated factors (advertising, competition, fees etc) -all factors pertaining to the trading market itself.
Which leads to the logical question – Why  are they needed at all?
I have more points but let’s see if you will answer  this one first.

I understood my mistake. Disregard the above!
« Last Edit: April 30, 2014, 07:42:45 pm by tonyk »
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline toast

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Re: A Call to the Truthcoin Prediction Market
« Reply #48 on: April 30, 2014, 04:46:17 pm »
^^ tonyk how do you imagine bts X works? The theory is that in a distributed environment you cannot establish a consensus point that isn't the "real" one because you cannot coordinate otherwise.

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Offline tonyk

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Re: A Call to the Truthcoin Prediction Market
« Reply #49 on: April 30, 2014, 04:58:03 pm »
Nicolai,
I am not even 50 % sure BTS X works, I just hope it does.

[Edit] BTW my logic is more akin to: expected  return 50x to 500x+ if it does work; chance of it working >  2%!

 I understand why it might not work.BUT  this is not the issue I am talking about here!

But if you read what I have written the problem with TRC (truthcoin) is magnitudes bigger! Just read it again. – The TRuthcoin layer is utterly unnecessary for the PM! The same is not true about BTS X – The market needs BTSX (as currency/value holding entity) if the BTS X prediction market is to succeed!

Continued…
« Last Edit: April 30, 2014, 08:09:05 pm by tonyk »
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline Agent86

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Re: A Call to the Truthcoin Prediction Market
« Reply #50 on: April 30, 2014, 05:01:15 pm »
I imagine market depth and voting participation would be important to Truthcoin.  For example if I can go big on a bet and take over 50% of one side (using sybil attack/sockpuppets/collusion with friends) and then I use that power to force the voting in my favor even if it's not the real outcome I can take the money.  For example all my voting shares vote to say that Mitt Romney won the 2012 election and I get the majority vote so I take the money of the people who bet on Obama; you could pick smaller bets that have less participation to use this attack.  I imagine you have thought of ways to deal with it, just pointing out the most obvious attack.
« Last Edit: April 30, 2014, 05:07:16 pm by Agent86 »

Offline fuzzy

Re: A Call to the Truthcoin Prediction Market
« Reply #51 on: April 30, 2014, 05:11:25 pm »
http://www.reddit.com/r/BeyondBitcoinShow/comments/240gyj/26_apr_14questions_for_dev_voice_hangout_w_dan/

This question was asked during the last Dev Voice Hangout.  The above link has a quick rundown of BM's response.
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Offline Bitcoinfan

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Re: A Call to the Truthcoin Prediction Market
« Reply #52 on: May 05, 2014, 01:40:02 am »

It's just a matter of still being at school .p2p taking up more time at the moment.

Finish strong!  School that is! 

We are interested.

The main limitation is that Bytemaster is heads-down with his whole team working to get XT out the door.

Truthcoin is one of the more intellectually deep DACs and it deserves much more mindshare than is available at this particular instant in time.  Hopefully we can thoroughly review their proposal in the next few weeks.

Nothing stops this community from contributing to the vetting of the ideas and recruiting of talent in the mean time.

For what it's worth, we did issue their first bitshares.org email account yesterday...   :)

Whatever we do, it will not be insignificant, and it is very important that we do it.  To echo Stan’s point, we are all coming here to make something great.  If we are to believe we are to do great work, we must challenge each others thoughts, assumptions, beliefs, and conceptual groundwork.  Often our hunches are the beginning of creative ideas.  But, they just stay like that.  They don’t become breakthrough innovations unless they involve and are tested by the hunches of others.  I encourage each one of you to read Paul’s whitepaper, think about it, find ways to break it, and come back here with questions.  In the end, we will arrive at the best approach.  which I firmly believe is the Truthcoin method. 

-- happy to have a Bitshares email!  You all can find me at [email protected]

« Last Edit: May 05, 2014, 02:43:37 am by Bitcoinfan »

Offline Bitcoinfan

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Re: A Call to the Truthcoin Prediction Market
« Reply #53 on: May 05, 2014, 02:00:00 am »
any updates on this?
I am also curious about what is going on with this project.  Can anyone comment?

I am still working on the project in my free time, writing and reviewing my code for clarity and performance. Recently, I (finally) perfected Scaled Claims, which allow a PM to take on a final value between 0 and 1, which can be scaled and shifted to represent a price index such as the DJIA or a number of House of Representative seats (the two examples I used in the R code). I have yet to rewrite this in Python or document it. I also still have to write a FAQ and more clearly document the project's requirements.

For details of what I am working on, see the 'Pipeline' section of my GitHub ReadMe, which I update occasionally https://github.com/psztorc/Truthcoin#pipeline

One issue is the economic model. Should this create new currency units (in addition to creating shares)? I had originally planned to use Bitcoin, but this depends on the development of, for example, side chains / tree chains / whatever. I may use Bitcoin's UTXO set purely to gain network effects and testing (distributing the shares [not currency] to the developers [currently just me]).

Many individuals have expressed interest in the project via private message or email, including one developer here. However, no one has volunteered to do what is actually required, and commit a few weeks of undivided development attention. Currently, I am not comfortable hiring anyone, mainly because half-finished code is worthless.

Bitcoinfan indicated to me that Bitshares would be able to provide dedicated developers and/or funding-for-developers in exchange for proportional ownership of the project's shares, but I instead expressed the opinion that Dan would (understandably) be hesitant to fund something which might directly compete with his own project. While meeting with Dan, he indicated that he had not read the whitepaper/code/supporting-documentation, and that he would not be able to directly provide any funding. Nearly all of his questions were about how Truthcoin would compare to his BitsharesX + Feed(s) idea. I interpreted this as confirming my original expectations.

So I am not sure that there is any room for partnership, but Bitcoinfan remains very optimistic so I am leaving it to him to arrange.

I think the community has shown great interest in the project. When a few DACs are out and Invictus is a well recognized brand/company it will be much easier to hire developers. I'd like to see a collaboration!

There is good reason why truthcoin is the top alternative dac post.  I think once the community reads and thinks about Paul’s whitepaper, more will see the light and how essential it is to have a decentralized protocol such as Truthcoin. Principally, Truthcoin’s entire theme is that “talk is cheap,” and to actually believe people’s words they should have “skin in the game.”  We are enthusiastic about creating a system that will enable people to put up money where their mouth is before they are seen are credible by the public. 
We hope the interest is enough to get Truthcoin off the ground, but that alone wont be able to kickstart anything.  I know Paul.  He has his own hesitancies about taking people at their own words.  He even has a plaque in his kitchen that says. “Nullius in Verba” (i.e. Take nobody’s word about it.)  He doesn’t care what people say, only which actions will make this project happen. 

Offline santaclause102

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Re: A Call to the Truthcoin Prediction Market
« Reply #54 on: May 05, 2014, 08:50:14 am »

It's just a matter of still being at school .p2p taking up more time at the moment.

Finish strong!  School that is! 

We are interested.

The main limitation is that Bytemaster is heads-down with his whole team working to get XT out the door.

Truthcoin is one of the more intellectually deep DACs and it deserves much more mindshare than is available at this particular instant in time.  Hopefully we can thoroughly review their proposal in the next few weeks.

Nothing stops this community from contributing to the vetting of the ideas and recruiting of talent in the mean time.

For what it's worth, we did issue their first bitshares.org email account yesterday...   :)

Whatever we do, it will not be insignificant, and it is very important that we do it.  To echo Stan’s point, we are all coming here to make something great.  If we are to believe we are to do great work, we must challenge each others thoughts, assumptions, beliefs, and conceptual groundwork.  Often our hunches are the beginning of creative ideas.  But, they just stay like that.  They don’t become breakthrough innovations unless they involve and are tested by the hunches of others.  I encourage each one of you to read Paul’s whitepaper, think about it, find ways to break it, and come back here with questions.  In the end, we will arrive at the best approach.  which I firmly believe is the Truthcoin method. 

-- happy to have a Bitshares email!  You all can find me at [email protected]

+5


Offline MolonLabe

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Re: A Call to the Truthcoin Prediction Market
« Reply #56 on: May 09, 2014, 06:56:37 pm »
GitHub Stats

Bitcoin: 5372 stars, 5726 commits, 198 contributors
Bitshares: 77 stars, 802 commits, 20 contributors
Truthcoin: 183 stars, 106 commits, 2 contributors


Offline toast

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Re: A Call to the Truthcoin Prediction Market
« Reply #57 on: May 09, 2014, 08:21:47 pm »
^ truthcoin has already submitted once to hacker news

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Offline mf-tzo

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Re: A Call to the Truthcoin Prediction Market
« Reply #58 on: May 10, 2014, 09:15:26 am »
Can't I3 use part of the AGS funding to help the development of the Truthcoin and in return Truthcoin gives stakes to AGS shareholders once launched? Why there is no proposal from anyone? It might not worth it to use AGS funding but unless a proposal is on the table we will not be able to judge it.

Isn't that an efficient way to use AGS funding?

Why there are no discussions about possible agreements? I am pretty sure that if we do not support Truthcoin soon someone else will do (like bithaus)

Offline santaclause102

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Re: A Call to the Truthcoin Prediction Market
« Reply #59 on: May 10, 2014, 10:14:24 am »
Can't I3 use part of the AGS funding to help the development of the Truthcoin and in return Truthcoin gives stakes to AGS shareholders once launched? Why there is no proposal from anyone? It might not worth it to use AGS funding but unless a proposal is on the table we will not be able to judge it.

Isn't that an efficient way to use AGS funding?

Why there are no discussions about possible agreements? I am pretty sure that if we do not support Truthcoin soon someone else will do (like bithaus)
+5
I think the barrier atm is that there is some minor disagreement or misunderstanding about the design between BM and AsymmetricInformation. But also BM didnt look to closely into it yet. Once BTS X is launched there will be more time I think. I would greatly appreciate a collaboration!