"its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability"

[btstip]

Hey CRAPCOIN, here are the results of your tips...

• emailtooaj: has been credited 100 CRAPCOIN

Curious about ShareBits? Visit us at http://sharebits.io and start tipping BTS on https://bitsharestalk.org/ today!

Source: https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,7558.msg265221/topicseen.html#msg265221

Created by hybridd

[CRAPCOIN]

Even though there is a HUGE party happening inside! They'll just walk on by and go to some crapcoin and potentially invest there.

#sharebits "emailtooaj" 100 CRAPCOIN

Thank you for advertising CRAPCOIN and welcome to the club of CRAPCOIN hodlers!

[infovortice2013]

good time to buy more btsx !!!

[bodenliu]

wow that is exactly a 50% pullback, if the down trend stops

[donkeypong]

Amen.

[xeroc]

........I don't want this to come off the wrong way but it was a shockingly smooth launch for bitUSD. I expected more well issues. Updates were very fast and taking the way the market was paused was very clever.  Even with the price drop I feel even better then before about where this is heading.

[Gentso1]

Also I strongly believe no more than 3 markets should be operating until liquidity improves and more people start using bitshares in general.

I agree.  USD, BTC, CNY are the only markets that I believe there is enough interest in to trade right now.  Once tools and user base is established we can grow to more, but software needs to be more robust first.

   Btw I'm very impressed with how the market is performing at the moment.. the consensus market is tracking bitUSD to USD surprisingly well with current volumes.  My confidence in the platform is even higher than it was which is saying a lot.  Keep up the excellent work, fellow stakeholders! 

........I don't want this to come off the wrong way but it was a shockingly smooth launch for bitUSD. I expected more well issues. Updates were very fast and taking the way the market was paused was very clever.  Even with the price drop I feel even better then before about where this is heading.

[yellowecho]

Also I strongly believe no more than 3 markets should be operating until liquidity improves and more people start using bitshares in general.

I agree.  USD, BTC, CNY are the only markets that I believe there is enough interest in to trade right now.  Once tools and user base is established we can grow to more, but software needs to be more robust first.

   Btw I'm very impressed with how the market is performing at the moment.. the consensus market is tracking bitUSD to USD surprisingly well with current volumes.  My confidence in the platform is even higher than it was which is saying a lot.  Keep up the excellent work, fellow stakeholders! 

[bytemaster]

Also I strongly believe no more than 3 markets should be operating until liquidity improves and more people start using bitshares in general.

I agree.  USD, BTC, CNY are the only markets that I believe there is enough interest in to trade right now.  Once tools and user base is established we can grow to more, but software needs to be more robust first.

[cygnify]

Also I strongly believe no more than 3 markets should be operating until liquidity improves and more people start using bitshares in general.

[santaclause102]

A 50% drop is ok if shorts have time to adjust their positions. The only time it is not ok is if the price drops so fast that there is insufficient collateral and the insurance fund is exhausted.

But isn't the margin called automatically which would prevent uncovered BitUSD?

The collateral issue only has a negative effect if the drop in BTSX value happens so fast that the margin can not be called automatically, correct? How quick would that have to be?

[Riverhead]

we urgently need bitBTC as well, BTC is looking awfully bullish ..

  I agree completely

I am publishing this. Is it what we need more of? This is BTC/BTSX



{
    "delegate_name": "riverhead-del-server-1",
    "price": 8.1799999999999996e-05,
    "last_update": "20140826T181350",
    "asset_symbol": "BTC",
    "median_price": null
  },

[cygnify]

we urgently need bitBTC as well, BTC is looking awfully bullish ..

I agree completely

[CLains]

we urgently need bitBTC as well, BTC is looking awfully bullish ..

[emailtooaj]

`

Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

Apologies, my post could have been clearer.

When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.

With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.

So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.

This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.

Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.

At least that's what I'd like to see...

Sorry but this is assumes that most BTSX trading takes place on the X exchange, which is not the case. And its not a satisfying answer for someone who is not yet convinced by BTSX.

if BTSX -> bitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> bitUSD) the traded value is still retained in the Bitshares ecosystem.

Certainly if BTSX -> notbitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> BTC) value leaves the ecosystem.

What I am plugging is that going forward there will be less and less motivation to move value outside of the ecosystem.

ie. why trade BTSX for BTC when you can trade BTSX for bitBTC (faster transfers, TITAN, etc.) or bitBTC5 (faster transfers, TITAN, ROI).

All of this retained value will ultimately be reflected in the market cap of BTSX.

Kind of a Hotel California scenario.

The problem atm is that most people keep their holdings on exchanges to buy and sell for short term profits. This will change hopefully as more people grasp the concept of bitAssets.

When people realize they can buy and sell any asset on a decentralized exchange with low fees and negligible counter party risk (ie. exchange default) trading volume will migrate to the X exchange (good for BTSX shareholders) and trade value will migrate to bitAssets (also good for BTSX shareholders).

At this point the tech has proven viable and we now all we need is a marketing push to bring liquidity....

This is a great discussion!
Made me start to wonder.
Is there any way for the general public to see what actual Market Cap is within the BTSx ecosystem?
Let's take Coinmarketcap.com for instance. It easily shows the value of the crypto markets by linking to exchanges and basically reporting that activity and pegging the coin's price relative to BTC trading rates. Of course most people can easily understand that.
That being said, once money flows into the BTSx Eco system and starts trading internally on the decentralized system, the actual ($) value being created and accumulated within this system isn't being reported to the outside. Is it?
To me it seems that coinmarketcap.com is obviously reporting what $'s is going to the BTSx front door but there is no way to tell whats going on inside.
I hope I'm making sense with this 

The only reason why I bring this up is the fact that if any people want to get involved and invest into BTSx, they aren't getting accurate trading volume by using a site like coinmarketcap.com.
They're only seeing activity at the front door, and it may be quite out there. Even though there is a HUGE party happening inside! They'll just walk on by and go to some crapcoin and potentially invest there.

 

[Riverhead]

The bitshares wallet is rather buggy at the moment. It crashes every 5-10 mins..main reason I'm keeping my btsx in the exchange.

They use the same software we use. Might be better to keep them in your wallet and then create a wallet with a few BTSX to play with. I have three wallets I switch between just be renaming wallets\default directory. default.markets default.portfolio, etc.

[Maximus0352]

The bitshares wallet is rather buggy at the moment. It crashes every 5-10 mins..main reason I'm keeping my btsx in the exchange.

[xeroc]

We need to fix some bugs prior to that push... but yes, we have proven the basic capability.

Yhea

- DPOS: *check*
- TITAN: *check*
- account names: *check*
- blockchain security: *check*
- Asset trades: *check*
- market peg: *check*

almost ready to go

//edit: Ah yhea, .. btw... most moon rockets run on (at least) two-stage igition/thruster systems

[bytemaster]

We need to fix some bugs prior to that push... but yes, we have proven the basic capability.

[oldman]

`

Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

Apologies, my post could have been clearer.

When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.

With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.

So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.

This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.

Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.

At least that's what I'd like to see...

Sorry but this is assumes that most BTSX trading takes place on the X exchange, which is not the case. And its not a satisfying answer for someone who is not yet convinced by BTSX.

if BTSX -> bitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> bitUSD) the traded value is still retained in the Bitshares ecosystem.

Certainly if BTSX -> notbitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> BTC) value leaves the ecosystem.

What I am plugging is that going forward there will be less and less motivation to move value outside of the ecosystem.

ie. why trade BTSX for BTC when you can trade BTSX for bitBTC (faster transfers, TITAN, etc.) or bitBTC5 (faster transfers, TITAN, ROI).

All of this retained value will ultimately be reflected in the market cap of BTSX.

Kind of a Hotel California scenario.

The problem atm is that most people keep their holdings on exchanges to buy and sell for short term profits. This will change hopefully as more people grasp the concept of bitAssets.

When people realize they can buy and sell any asset on a decentralized exchange with low fees and negligible counter party risk (ie. exchange default) trading volume will migrate to the X exchange (good for BTSX shareholders) and trade value will migrate to bitAssets (also good for BTSX shareholders).

At this point the tech has proven viable and we now all we need is a marketing push to bring liquidity....

[bitbadger]

`

Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

Apologies, my post could have been clearer.

When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.

With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.

So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.

This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.

Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.

At least that's what I'd like to see...

Sorry but this is assumes that most BTSX trading takes place on the X exchange, which is not the case. And its not a satisfying answer for someone who is not yet convinced by BTSX.

if BTSX -> bitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> bitUSD) the traded value is still retained in the Bitshares ecosystem.

Certainly if BTSX -> notbitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> BTC) value leaves the ecosystem.

What I am plugging is that going forward there will be less and less motivation to move value outside of the ecosystem.

ie. why trade BTSX for BTC when you can trade BTSX for bitBTC (faster transfers, TITAN, etc.) or bitBTC5 (faster transfers, TITAN, ROI).

All of this retained value will ultimately be reflected in the market cap of BTSX.

Kind of a Hotel California scenario.

The problem atm is that most people keep their holdings on exchanges to buy and sell for short term profits. This will change hopefully as more people grasp the concept of bitAssets.

Yes, exactly.  There are people who basically live on the 3rd party exchanges and never even download the wallet for the coins that they trade.  It would be interesting to know how many BTSX are held by 3rd party exchanges. 

Apparently over 10,000 BTC worth has been traded on 3rd party exchanges in the past 24 hours.  That is $5M of volume in BTSX on 3rd party exchanges. 

Or, to put it into direct terms, ~125 Million of the 2 Billion BTSX available, or roughly 1/16th of the entire supply, has changed hands within the past 24 hours... on 3rd party exchanges.  Of course, a lot of these coins have been churned, so reduce by a factor of 2 or 4, but still that's a substantial amount of BTSX on 3rd party exchanges and not held in wallets.

[hamiltino]

`

Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

Apologies, my post could have been clearer.

When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.

With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.

So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.

This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.

Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.

At least that's what I'd like to see...

Sorry but this is assumes that most BTSX trading takes place on the X exchange, which is not the case. And its not a satisfying answer for someone who is not yet convinced by BTSX.

if BTSX -> bitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> bitUSD) the traded value is still retained in the Bitshares ecosystem.

Certainly if BTSX -> notbitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> BTC) value leaves the ecosystem.

What I am plugging is that going forward there will be less and less motivation to move value outside of the ecosystem.

ie. why trade BTSX for BTC when you can trade BTSX for bitBTC (faster transfers, TITAN, etc.) or bitBTC5 (faster transfers, TITAN, ROI).

All of this retained value will ultimately be reflected in the market cap of BTSX.

Kind of a Hotel California scenario.

The problem atm is that most people keep their holdings on exchanges to buy and sell for short term profits. This will change hopefully as more people grasp the concept of bitAssets.

[changematey]

Well I still confused by lot of the BitUSD trading. BM, any chances of a layman video? And from the looks of it, there is a huge - 100k bet that BTSX will have trouble crossing 1.3 $/BTSX barrier.

Any bets that far out are likely to be canceled long before we hit that price.

Yeah most likely. Though my confusion is arising from this fact. My 1.3 calculation is derived by current BTSX price in USD X price of BTSX/BITUSD == 0.038439 * 33.33 = 1.28

Now depending on BTSX price movement the same order could change, say BTSX increases to 1 USD, then the price order will be 33.33
or if say decreases to 0.02 then order becomes 0.6666 USD. So in case of an ever increasing market, order will be never hit and in case of a falling price, hit very easily. I am not sure of the repercussion of the same.

Edit: Just realised this is a pretty neat to avoid the BTC denomination which many alts face. They become more susceptible and dependable on how BTC will move.

[bytemaster]

Well I still confused by lot of the BitUSD trading. BM, any chances of a layman video? And from the looks of it, there is a huge - 100k bet that BTSX will have trouble crossing 1.3 $/BTSX barrier.

Any bets that far out are likely to be canceled long before we hit that price. 

[changematey]

Well I still confused by lot of the BitUSD trading. BM, any chances of a layman video? And from the looks of it, there is a huge - 100k bet that BTSX will have trouble crossing 1.3 $/BTSX barrier.

[oldman]

`

Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

Apologies, my post could have been clearer.

When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.

With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.

So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.

This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.

Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.

At least that's what I'd like to see...

Sorry but this is assumes that most BTSX trading takes place on the X exchange, which is not the case. And its not a satisfying answer for someone who is not yet convinced by BTSX.

if BTSX -> bitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> bitUSD) the traded value is still retained in the Bitshares ecosystem.

Certainly if BTSX -> notbitAsset trading occurs on external exchanges (ie. Bter BTSX -> BTC) value leaves the ecosystem.

What I am plugging is that going forward there will be less and less motivation to move value outside of the ecosystem.

ie. why trade BTSX for BTC when you can trade BTSX for bitBTC (faster transfers, TITAN, etc.) or bitBTC5 (faster transfers, TITAN, ROI).

All of this retained value will ultimately be reflected in the market cap of BTSX.

Kind of a Hotel California scenario.

[Maximus0352]

My buy in was at 0.0001 as well..they say we will be 0.43 by the end of September, hold lads hold!

[Riverhead]

My in price was 0.00001337. Wasn't exactly market price but I couldn't resist

[feedthemcake]

Looks like a 20% correction.  Yay.

looks more like a 35% atm 

I bought at .0001 and I'm holding for now.

[progmac]

Looks like a 20% correction.  Yay.

looks more like a 35% atm 

I hate how captivated i am by the stupid btsx price. I think everyone was waiting for someone to flinch. The question is now whether there is enough underlying value for it to pick back up. Of course, there is

[bodenliu]

Looks like a 20% correction.  Yay.

looks more like a 35% atm 

[oldman]

If value flows from BTC to bitBTC as described above,  won't the price of BTC crash?  and the peg take down bitBTC with it?

Yes, a negative feedback loop is entirely possible. Perhaps likely.

At which point the value will flow to the safety of bitUSD.

This is the extraordinary attribute of BTSX. The value, once arrived, never needs to leave.

[patrickb323]

If value flows from BTC to bitBTC as described above,  won't the price of BTC crash?  and the peg take down bitBTC with it?

[Riverhead]

I'm hoping it stays "correct" until some time tomorrow so I can buy more .


The absurdity of it taking me pretty much a week to electronically move funds from one exchange to another underlines the value bitUSD brings. I could have driven to the exchange, gotten the money in a suitcase, and flown to Coinbase in San Fran in that time.

[bytemaster]

Looks like a 20% correction.  Yay.

[oldman]

And it has not been stable, its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability rather than some unforeseen event.

Bitcoin ran from less than a penny to north of $1k in five years in a very under-capitalized market with a very small fiat-crypto pipeline.

There is now a few billion in very mobile crypto-equity available to invest in the next big thing.

BTSX is the next big thing. Each cryptive (crypto-derivative... clever, no?) requires BTSX backing. We are looking at multiples on multiples. bitUSD, bitCNY, bitGLD, bitSLV... then bitGOOG, bitAPPL.

The velocity of crypto-equity is unprecedented. BTSX could potentially hit a market cap of several billion in the next few months... and that would just be getting started.

It certainly could, but it probably wont. Marketing would determine that as well as other factors.

The two chokepoints which are our bottlenecks are getting value into the ecosystem and having a way to get value out. We have found one way to get value in through fiat -> Coinbase -> Bter -> BTSX for example but it's not very efficient. Minebitshares is an attempt to solve this problem by bringing value in through mining but we need more on-ramps into the ecosystem.

If any of you can think of ways to create these on-ramps in and then the gateways out ASAP then it is possible we could have a market cap in the billions before the end of the year. If you can't get value in and out (value is distinct from money), then that limits the growth rate of our business.

I may have a lot of ideas but I don't have the resources to start businesses. Someone who does have the resources can use me as an advisor along with other creative thinkers in the community so we can push forward. If you want to see it happen and you have the resources to build a gateway service then crowd fund yourself like how Invictus did and recruit whoever you need from the community to make it happen.

I'm specifically looking at the $6bn of value parked in Bitcoin.

bitUSD works; so will bitBTC.

Once bitBTC is issued I can see no compelling reason to hold Bitcoin directly. Particularly if something like bitBTC5 is issued.

BTC enjoys a temporary advantage in the ability to make online purchases (Stan's checking/savings dichotomy), but this will fade as bitUSD circulates. In the interim it would be faster/easier to use bitBTC for purchases anyway.

bitBTC must necessarily be created from BTSX - so to create a billion to two in bitBTC, BTSX will need to increase in market cap by about twice that much.

What I'm saying is the initial run into the billions could be swift and without much resistance as value flows directly from BTC to BTSX. The pipeline is wide and unencumbered.

Thereafter, the usual fiat->crypto throttle will apply.

I'm a frequent Reddit and BTT reader and bitShares is not yet on the map; the BTC community does not see this coming.

If Brian markets well, bitShares will sweep through the Bitcoin community like a wildfire. The rush into BTSX/bitBTC/bitUSD/bitCNY could be an unprecedented market event that is not subject to the usual bubble and burst cycle. BTSX may well just bubble right into the billions without much of a pause.

[xeroc]

Bter has added a BitUSD to USD market... once this has active bids going then users who only want out temporarily can have more confidence that BitUSD is liquid and convertible.  This will remove a major source of selling pressure on exchanges.

For real .. awesome

[bytemaster]

Bter has added a BitUSD to USD market... once this has active bids going then users who only want out temporarily can have more confidence that BitUSD is liquid and convertible.  This will remove a major source of selling pressure on exchanges.

[luckybit]

And it has not been stable, its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability rather than some unforeseen event.

Bitcoin ran from less than a penny to north of $1k in five years in a very under-capitalized market with a very small fiat-crypto pipeline.

There is now a few billion in very mobile crypto-equity available to invest in the next big thing.

BTSX is the next big thing. Each cryptive (crypto-derivative... clever, no?) requires BTSX backing. We are looking at multiples on multiples. bitUSD, bitCNY, bitGLD, bitSLV... then bitGOOG, bitAPPL.

The velocity of crypto-equity is unprecedented. BTSX could potentially hit a market cap of several billion in the next few months... and that would just be getting started.

It certainly could, but it probably wont. Marketing would determine that as well as other factors.

The two chokepoints which are our bottlenecks are getting value into the ecosystem and having a way to get value out. We have found one way to get value in through fiat -> Coinbase -> Bter -> BTSX for example but it's not very efficient. Minebitshares is an attempt to solve this problem by bringing value in through mining but we need more on-ramps into the ecosystem.

If any of you can think of ways to create these on-ramps in and then the gateways out ASAP then it is possible we could have a market cap in the billions before the end of the year. If you can't get value in and out (value is distinct from money), then that limits the growth rate of our business.

I may have a lot of ideas but I don't have the resources to start businesses. Someone who does have the resources can use me as an advisor along with other creative thinkers in the community so we can push forward. If you want to see it happen and you have the resources to build a gateway service then crowd fund yourself like how Invictus did and recruit whoever you need from the community to make it happen.

[toast]

A 50% drop is ok if shorts have time to adjust their positions. The only time it is not ok is if the price drops so fast that there is insufficient collateral and the insurance fund is exhausted.

[liondani]

Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

Apologies, my post could have been clearer.

When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.

With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.

So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.

This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.

Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.

At least that's what I'd like to see...

I like the way you think

[speedy]

Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

Apologies, my post could have been clearer.

When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.

With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.

So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.

This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.

Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.

At least that's what I'd like to see...

Sorry but this is assumes that most BTSX trading takes place on the X exchange, which is not the case. And its not a satisfying answer for someone who is not yet convinced by BTSX.

[oldman]

Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

Apologies, my post could have been clearer.

When assets bubble and crash it is because value flows into and then out of the asset.

With BTSX it is a one way trip. Value enters via BTSX and flows to cryptives backed by BTSX.

So when BTSX 'crashes' the value flows to bitUSD, bitCNY etc. rather than to fiat, BTC, etc.

This, combined with the very high mobility of crypto-equity (crypto-value?) may result in sustained absorbtion of a vast amount of capital that never leaves the system.

Ie. BTSX just keeps going up. And up. And up.

At least that's what I'd like to see...

[werneo]

Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

How it makes it likely (to say nothing about, 'very likely' - whatever the term means).
What is the logic -'Cause it usually happens like that?'

The logic assumes that the sudden rise in the value of BTSX has captured the imagination of speculators around the globe. Speculators are not investors. Speculators are in it for the quick buck. They will bail all at once when they think the short term boom is over.  No big deal. Investors don't blink.

[tonyk]

Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

How it makes it likely (to say nothing about, 'very likely' - whatever the term means).
What is the logic -'Cause it usually happens like that?'

Well this is what many people expect, and they have a fair point. All Ive heard so far in response is that people just "hope" its not going to happen.

What if 'fair' in random, based on nothing statement... I can say it will likely go up another 400% in the next week or two...at least I can defend on what I base such statements.

[speedy]

Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

How it makes it likely (to say nothing about, 'very likely' - whatever the term means).
What is the logic -'Cause it usually happens like that?'

Well this is what many people expect, and they have a fair point. All Ive heard so far in response is that people just "hope" its not going to happen.

[tonyk]

Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

How it makes it likely (to say nothing about, 'very likely' - whatever the term means).
What is the logic -'Cause it usually happens like that?'

[speedy]

Whilst I share your expectation that we have only just started, that still doesnt answer the point that a 400% bull run makes a 50% crash very likely, and not a "black swan" scenario.

[oldman]

And it has not been stable, its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability rather than some unforeseen event.

Bitcoin ran from less than a penny to north of $1k in five years in a very under-capitalized market with a very small fiat-crypto pipeline.

There is now a few billion in very mobile crypto-equity available to invest in the next big thing.

BTSX is the next big thing. Each cryptive (crypto-derivative... clever, no?) requires BTSX backing. We are looking at multiples on multiples. bitUSD, bitCNY, bitGLD, bitSLV... then bitGOOG, bitAPPL.

The velocity of crypto-equity is unprecedented. BTSX could potentially hit a market cap of several billion in the next few months... and that would just be getting started.

[luckybit]

Regarding the collateral requirements, what is the response to this fair point from someone on bter.com:

And it has not been stable, its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability rather than some unforeseen event.

This seems to be the biggest argument for why the market peg wont work.

Pullback into what? BitUSD?
BitUSD is all we really need now. It's better than Bitcoin in every measure and it's better than the dollar.

Maybe to pay bills people will cash out into dollars or taxes.

[donkeypong]

A little volatility won't hurt the market peg. BitUSD will still be stable, relative to the current price of BTSX, since traders on both sides should ensure a robust market.

[speedy]

50% pullback over how long? 1 hour? That's fine...

So is the point that if the 50% pullback is an hour or longer, then there will be enough time to force the shorter to cover i.e. a margin call. That's the point right?

[toast]

50% pullback over how long? 1 hour? That's fine...

[cygnify]

Its not up 1000% in a week for starters. Closer to 400%

[speedy]

Regarding the collateral requirements, what is the response to this fair point from someone on bter.com:

And it has not been stable, its up 1000% in a week, so a 50% pullback seems an inevitability rather than some unforeseen event.

This seems to be the biggest argument for why the market peg wont work.