Author Topic: Where have all the bids gone?  (Read 9726 times)

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Offline GaltReport

I think people are still learning the best strategies....  I made some money over night with the following strategy.

1) Buy BitUSD when prices BTSX is high and BitUSD is cheap vs USD
2) Sell BitUSD at the "peg price"  (I make money on corrections automatically)
3) Places shorts low to catch a market correction. (when the market overshoots on the down side I get solid short positions)
4) Cover shorts with USD that was bought cheap.

Anyone who wants to trade on the BTSX volatility can make a killing right now. 

So for the BTSX bull who is also a trader the slight discount on BitUSD vs USD is irrelevant and mostly a constant offset that will gradually move closer and closer to the peg over time as liquidity is added.
bytemaster, you are wrong.  The current market mechanic is flawed.

Using the price feed to set a floor price for valid bitUSD shorts is imperative.  The good news is that this will make bitUSD really work and it will actually track the value of the dollar nicely!  Please act quickly.

Agent, I am going to disagree with you on this one.  The price needs to offer people incentive to go long USD and thus the peg will currently be biased and thus BitUSD is currently 14% cheaper than USD.   To me 14% seems like a reasonable premium to entice people into BitUSD.  It means many people want to leverage up and are so sure of their position they are willing to do it at 14% above market.   The next time we get to bubble highs you will see this spread approach 0 or go negative as demand for a hedge increases. 

So if you want to trade BitUSD vs USD you just have to ask yourself which way will the spread be moving and trade accordingly.

If we were to use "price fixing" as you suggest then you would just dry up the supply of BitUSD and nothing would happen.  I already hate the 10% limits on either side of the feed which were interfering the other day.

I agree this is price fixing.  Basically hard coding the price.  I think another reason for low BitUSD  is that it's not that easy  to use yet, as in converting to actual USD Fiat or purchasing goods and services.  Once you can more easilly get actualy USD fiat or purchase goods and services with it, people will have more confidence in owning it. 

Right now, if you look at the BitUSD  "markets" on bter with a goal of converting to USD fiat, it doesn't inspire confidence IMHO.
« Last Edit: August 27, 2014, 02:12:21 pm by GaltReport »

Offline Agent86

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bytemaster, you are wrong.  The current market mechanic is flawed.

Using the price feed to set a floor price for valid bitUSD shorts is imperative.  The good news is that this will make bitUSD really work and it will actually track the value of the dollar nicely!  Please act quickly.

Agent, I am going to disagree with you on this one.  The price needs to offer people incentive to go long USD and thus the peg will currently be biased and thus BitUSD is currently 14% cheaper than USD.   To me 14% seems like a reasonable premium to entice people into BitUSD.  It means many people want to leverage up and are so sure of their position they are willing to do it at 14% above market.   The next time we get to bubble highs you will see this spread approach 0 or go negative as demand for a hedge increases. 

So if you want to trade BitUSD vs USD you just have to ask yourself which way will the spread be moving and trade accordingly.

If we were to use "price fixing" as you suggest then you would just dry up the supply of BitUSD and nothing would happen.  I already hate the 10% limits on either side of the feed which were interfering the other day.
I have to do something for work but will respond when I can.

Offline bytemaster

I think people are still learning the best strategies....  I made some money over night with the following strategy.

1) Buy BitUSD when prices BTSX is high and BitUSD is cheap vs USD
2) Sell BitUSD at the "peg price"  (I make money on corrections automatically)
3) Places shorts low to catch a market correction. (when the market overshoots on the down side I get solid short positions)
4) Cover shorts with USD that was bought cheap.

Anyone who wants to trade on the BTSX volatility can make a killing right now. 

So for the BTSX bull who is also a trader the slight discount on BitUSD vs USD is irrelevant and mostly a constant offset that will gradually move closer and closer to the peg over time as liquidity is added.
bytemaster, you are wrong.  The current market mechanic is flawed.

Using the price feed to set a floor price for valid bitUSD shorts is imperative.  The good news is that this will make bitUSD really work and it will actually track the value of the dollar nicely!  Please act quickly.

Agent, I am going to disagree with you on this one.  The price needs to offer people incentive to go long USD and thus the peg will currently be biased and thus BitUSD is currently 14% cheaper than USD.   To me 14% seems like a reasonable premium to entice people into BitUSD.  It means many people want to leverage up and are so sure of their position they are willing to do it at 14% above market.   The next time we get to bubble highs you will see this spread approach 0 or go negative as demand for a hedge increases. 

So if you want to trade BitUSD vs USD you just have to ask yourself which way will the spread be moving and trade accordingly.

If we were to use "price fixing" as you suggest then you would just dry up the supply of BitUSD and nothing would happen.  I already hate the 10% limits on either side of the feed which were interfering the other day.
For the latest updates checkout my blog: http://bytemaster.bitshares.org
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract between myself and anyone else.   These are merely my opinions and I reserve the right to change them at any time.

Offline bitmeat

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bytemaster, you are wrong.  The current market mechanic is flawed.

Using the price feed to set a floor price for valid bitUSD shorts is imperative.  The good news is that this will make bitUSD really work and it will actually track the value of the dollar nicely!  Please act quickly.

And there it is. I couldn't agree more.

« Last Edit: August 27, 2014, 01:51:02 pm by bitmeat »

Offline Agent86

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I think people are still learning the best strategies....  I made some money over night with the following strategy.

1) Buy BitUSD when prices BTSX is high and BitUSD is cheap vs USD
2) Sell BitUSD at the "peg price"  (I make money on corrections automatically)
3) Places shorts low to catch a market correction. (when the market overshoots on the down side I get solid short positions)
4) Cover shorts with USD that was bought cheap.

Anyone who wants to trade on the BTSX volatility can make a killing right now. 

So for the BTSX bull who is also a trader the slight discount on BitUSD vs USD is irrelevant and mostly a constant offset that will gradually move closer and closer to the peg over time as liquidity is added.
bytemaster, you are wrong.  The current market mechanic is flawed.

Using the price feed to set a floor price for valid bitUSD shorts is imperative.  The good news is that this will make bitUSD really work and it will actually track the value of the dollar nicely!  Please act quickly.

Offline Riverhead

I think people are still learning the best strategies....  I made some money over night with the following strategy.

1) Buy BitUSD when prices BTSX is high and BitUSD is cheap vs USD
2) Sell BitUSD at the "peg price"  (I make money on corrections automatically)
3) Places shorts low to catch a market correction. (when the market overshoots on the down side I get solid short positions)
4) Cover shorts with USD that was bought cheap.


Now I just need to capture that in a python script and retire :D.

Offline bytemaster

I think people are still learning the best strategies....  I made some money over night with the following strategy.

1) Buy BitUSD when prices BTSX is high and BitUSD is cheap vs USD
2) Sell BitUSD at the "peg price"  (I make money on corrections automatically)
3) Places shorts low to catch a market correction. (when the market overshoots on the down side I get solid short positions)
4) Cover shorts with USD that was bought cheap.

Anyone who wants to trade on the BTSX volatility can make a killing right now. 

So for the BTSX bull who is also a trader the slight discount on BitUSD vs USD is irrelevant and mostly a constant offset that will gradually move closer and closer to the peg over time as liquidity is added.
For the latest updates checkout my blog: http://bytemaster.bitshares.org
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract between myself and anyone else.   These are merely my opinions and I reserve the right to change them at any time.

Offline Empirical1

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At the moment people in BTSX are long term BTSX bulls the BitUSD market hasn't really come here yet. (The main time BitUSD will be heavily bid atm till that market arrives is if people are short term bearish.)
 
There's a conundrum that if you think BTSX is a relatively safe place to store the value of $ for the next few months that would make you a BTSX bull in which case you'll probably prefer to short BitUSD with your BTSX.

I identified this could be a problem before trading started,

https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=7416.msg99591#msg99591

Possible ideas for solutions

Introduce BitUSD + 10%. It's the same as shorting below the peg but it might look better if BitUSD was trading closer to the peg.

make a trading pair where the people going short aren't actually taking a leveraged position on the future of BTSX If/how this will work I don't know.

----

Either way I think it will all work out once BTSX is worth a few billion dollars. Might just be limited general BitAsset demand beforehand but plenty of people willing to short
« Last Edit: August 27, 2014, 01:27:09 pm by Empire »

Offline Riverhead

My very simple theory is that the only reason to buy and or hold bitUSD as a trader is if you think BTSX is over valued. Given the pull back in the last 48 hours people think we've neared the bottom which makes bitUSD less compelling.

Offline cygnify

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What will more than likely help is when BTSX start rising in price. Demand should pick up for bitUSD as people want to lock in profits. The way it is now most of the first users are bitshares believers. I think this is the best theory. Which means it just needs time and movement.

Offline bitmeat

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No I don't but why such interest in BitUSD buyers? Thats all you guys have been talking about for last several posts. Unless you are holding many BitUSD's and looking to unload.

Because it's a big deal. If there are no BitUSD buyers, then the whole experiment that BTSX is, doesn't work.

There is a breakdown somewhere and I'm trying to figure out where. It could be a bootstrapping problem - no BitUSD buyers = no support = no trust in the system = even less BitUSD buyers.

Add to that the other theory above, that it is just not worth for anyone to buy this high, since I believe there are theoretical maximums.

Offline cygnify

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No I don't but why such interest in BitUSD buyers? Thats all you guys have been talking about for last several posts. Unless you are holding many BitUSD's and looking to unload.

In case you haven't worked it out there is one asset trading currently and we are talking about it on the bitshares forum. I'll leave that at that.

Offline cygnify

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I'm in the same boat as bitmeat trying to work it out too, and that's what my conclusion came too. Not sure how that sounds scammy?

I pretty much am all in on bitshares not that that proves any thing here.

Offline jae208

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No I don't but why such interest in BitUSD buyers? Thats all you guys have been talking about for last several posts. Unless you are holding many BitUSD's and looking to unload.
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Offline bitmeat

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You guys are sounding kind of scammy.
Personally, after reading your last several posts I wouldn't listen to what you have to say in the future.

Umm confused, sure. Scammy?!? I'm trying to understand how all this works. I said it's a theory, and I asked for other people's opinion. It just puzzles me that there are no bids.

Do you have a better theory?