Author Topic: Dan Larimer - Your thoughts on what's happening to Bitcoin right now  (Read 18910 times)

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Offline tonyk

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Lol yea sorry I've been having trouble with my comp. I felt like a schoolteacher writing that.

Dare to translate this in plain(er) English?

Insults are not worth much if not understood, is what I mean.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2014, 07:21:41 am by tonyk »
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline xeroc

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Lol yea sorry I've been having trouble with my comp. I felt like a schoolteacher writing that.
depending on your country this statement can be interpreted very widely!

Offline Frodo03

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Lol yea sorry I've been having trouble with my comp. I felt like a schoolteacher writing that.

Offline tonyk

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I generally agree with you regarding under-the-toilet-man... buy can you please change the red color with something friendlier for my old eyes, please...[bold blue] ???

[Edit] Thanks for doing it.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2014, 06:32:00 pm by tonyk »
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline Frodo03

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There have been many negative predictions regarding Bitcoin's demise so I don't expect to be taken seriously but here's my take.

Three fundamental factors are in play:

Firstly people are realising virtually no one is using Bitcoin for payments and likely will not, why would they given the hoops they jumped through to buy it.

"People are realising"- what people? Who? Very general statement. And of course we've all had to jump through some hoops to get Bitcoin- you need to jump through even more hoops to get BTSX- let alone even understand what it is! It is slowly getting easier and easier to buy Bitcoin because there are many companies (ex: Circle) working hard to make Bitcoin "grandma-proof". All new technologies are pretty clunky and confusing at first- it takes time for things to get simple. For the record, people ARE using Bitcoin to buy things, not "virtually no one". I don't even need to get started on that one.

Secondly without a valid payment example, cryptos don't have consumer support and consequently investors have tacitly recognised that no one other than the crypto community gives a damn about regulations. smh

Finally and most importantly PoW, once seen as a pure solution, is increasingly seen as flawed as there is now a credible alternative, something that Dan and DPoS can take some pride in revealing.

"Increasingly seen as flawed"- by who? The only people I've seen bashing PoW's flaws are people who have a vested interest in competing cryptos. Of course they're going to bash it- they're biased! I'm not a tech guy, so I can't comment on PoW's long term viability, but I can say that nobody really knows what the best algorithm is- it's all an experiment- all a matter of testing what actually works, and Bitcoin has been working great for a while. No other crypto comes close. People also seem to forget that Bitcoin can adapt and be modified...

In summary the fanaticism that kept Bitcoin alive has simply run out of air.

In my view Bitcoin it's simply kept alive by a tight Chinese business model stemming from the need of the cadres to discreetly move money out of China.

http://coinmarketcap.com/currencies/bitcoin/#markets

As this reality sinks in a vacuum is being created, one that the Bitshares platform can fill but only if we see it associated with a currency that is 'used' by consumers and adopted by the existing Bitcoin infrastructure.

Only a VERY tiny fraction of the population has heard of Bitcoin- let alone knows what it even is. You seem to imply that all consumers aren't using Bitcoin- most consumers haven't even heard of it.


Lots of bias and general statements, as usual. No offense, just something to be aware of :)

Side note: I hold both BTC and BTSX.
« Last Edit: September 24, 2014, 07:05:08 am by Frodo03 »

Offline tonyk

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Underjohn, that is a very insightful first post!

Pretty insightful name also! ... under john....
« Last Edit: September 24, 2014, 04:27:02 am by tonyk »
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline donkeypong

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Underjohn, that is a very insightful first post!

Offline underjohn

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There have been many negative predictions regarding Bitcoin's demise so I don't expect to be taken seriously but here's my take.

Three fundamental factors are in play:

Firstly people are realising virtually no one is using Bitcoin for payments and likely will not, why would they given the hoops they jumped through to buy it.

Secondly without a valid payment example, cryptos don't have consumer support and consequently investors have tacitly recognised that no one other than the crypto community gives a damn about regulations.

Finally and most importantly PoW, once seen as a pure solution, is increasingly seen as flawed as there is now a credible alternative, something that Dan and DPoS can take some pride in revealing.

In summary the fanaticism that kept Bitcoin alive has simply run out of air.

In my view Bitcoin it's simply kept alive by a tight Chinese business model stemming from the need of the cadres to discreetly move money out of China.

As this reality sinks in a vacuum is being created, one that the Bitshares platform can fill but only if we see it associated with a currency that is 'used' by consumers and adopted by the existing Bitcoin infrastructure.
« Last Edit: September 22, 2014, 10:01:26 pm by underjohn »

Offline liondani

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maybe we are "wasting" all electricity in the name of bitcoin survival letting current unknown/transparent  viruses on our systems keep running ... for mining purposes ... yes I am overthinking some times... feel free to read the next reply without wasting time analyzing  this one   :P

Offline Riverhead

I guess we'll see what happens at block 420000 and 630000. Either BTC will have to double in price to pay the miners or it'll die. Perhaps a combination of both: higher price and thinner margins for miners.

OR - It could put the massive miners out of business, the diff drops down to reasonable levels, and private mining becomes profitable again....for a while. Rinse and repeat?

https://en.bitcoin.it/wiki/Controlled_supply

Offline CLains

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It's all speculation and faith in the end. NOBODY knows what is going to happen, NOBODY knows what is a sure success- and anyone who thinks they know what is a sure success is an idiot in my opinion. Putting all of your eggs into one basket is pretty dumb from an investment standpoint, but if you're going to do that, you are FAR better off putting them into Bitcoin.

Be careful when you jump from "I don't know" to "nobody knows." There was a time when only a few people knew that the atomic bomb was possible. There is a reason why certain people become billionaires and others won't.

Offline speedy

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Mining is quite simply wasteful insanity and unsustainable. Check out this disgusting picture of a water cooled mining rig:

http://www.coindesk.com/cryptocurrency-miners-turn-exotic-cooling-systems-competition-heats/

Doesnt that mining rig make you want to throw up? Some people would say that rig is clever. But thanks to Bytemaster we know better.

Frodo, I personally dont want BTC to go down the gutter - I think it would be great for everyone if they had a carefully managed transition to DPOS.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2014, 02:31:24 am by trader »

Offline Frodo03

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This. I agree that PoW has some issues, but I believe these can be solved in the long term.

Why? PoW is extremely inefficient and that will never change. It's baked right into the whole concept. When you let go of "bitcoin faith", you'll feel a huge weight lifted off your shoulders.

Why? Because there is already such a massive amount of money in Bitcoin (relative to other cryptos) and because of Bitcoin's enormous network effect. Also, because people truly believe it will succeed and believe in the technology. Due to this, I just can't see people letting Bitcoin crash, burn, and eventually die. I trust that they will find a way to work through the problems because there is such a huge amount of personal interest/investment/belief/connection to Bitcoin.

I'm sure that when the Internet was first unleashed to the world, it probably had massive issues. I'm not a tech guy, but I wouldn't be surprised. I'm sure that back then there were so many people bashing it and pointing out all the major issues and explaining how it can't possibly succeed and would eventually crash, burn, and die.

I guess my point is: just because there are big problems with a new technology, doesn't mean it is going to go down the gutter.

And you could apply the "bitcoin faith" thing to any crypto. It's all speculation and faith in the end. NOBODY knows what is going to happen, NOBODY knows what is a sure success- and anyone who thinks they know what is a sure success is an idiot in my opinion. Putting all of your eggs into one basket is pretty dumb from an investment standpoint, but if you're going to do that, you are FAR better off putting them into Bitcoin.
« Last Edit: September 21, 2014, 02:09:27 am by Frodo03 »

Offline CoinHoarder

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If the Willy report is true, which is not clear to me, then the last 2 bubbles where fuelled in part by fake demand.  If you look at the long term log chat, there was an increase in the rate of price increase during the last two bubbles, which could have been caused by Willy if it was really happening.  Therefore if the Willy report was true, then we could correct down to the rate of increase that was present before the bubbles, which would put the current bitcoin price at around $200, and the price may not recover quickly. 

If the Willy report isn't true then bitcoin is dead cheap and I'm long term bullish.

My guess is that Willy isn't true.  After all wouldn't something like that have been discovered by law enforcement and have been confirmed?  In which case there are many possible explanations for the current 'dip/crash' (Alibaba, ethereum cash out, traders giving up on bubble hopes, manipulation, simply not enough buyers, merchant sales) , but I am prepared for further downward movement just in case.  I bought my first BTSX today.  I'm still learning about it but it looks promising so far.

Hey Matt,

I didn't know you were around here in Bitsharesland.. Hi!  :)

I guess I'm living under a rock.. I've never heard of the Willy report.

Hey coinhoarder, I bought my first BTSX today.  Did you ever go ahead with the LTC farm?

Willy report alleges that on Mtgox there were bots that bought 650,000BTC with fake dollars:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/26g46e/the_willy_report_proof_of_massive_fraudulent/

It's either the most advanced FUD I've seen or pretty damming info, though some seem to argue that it somehow didn't have much impact.

On bitcoin markets I'm asking about it and getting a bunch of mixed replies:
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2gv09g/daily_discussion_friday_september_19_2014_part_2/ckn2gl6

Awesome, welcome to the community! I can't comment as to the validity of the Willy report without a shadow of doubt, but...

It is compelling that the Willy and Markus trading activity adds up to right around the total number of Bitcoins that went missing from Mt. Gox, and the traders existence was corroborated by day traders noticing them before the report came out. On the other hand, that all could just be an intended coincidence, as the data was released by an anonymous source and it could have been altered or completely made up. It also seems odd that the hackers would publicly release evidence of their hack, but hackers are weird like that and like to show off after doing things they can go to jail for.

I am leaning towards it being true as it seems like there is too much data to be completely made up, but then again maybe that is the point. I guess time will tell, and I think the truth will come out eventually whether it be in the bankruptcy case or some civil case. I think at some point Karpales is going to have to prove he didn't steal all those coins, and when he has to do this the truth will come out. It is very interesting though.. I am interested to see what will come of it.

PS: Yes, we made a farm... be glad you didn't join us. I am done with ASICs and PoW, that is part of the reason I adopted Bitshares. ASICs are unprofitable and outright scams for the consumers & lead to centralization, and PoW is incredibly wasteful of electricity.. I know from experience haha. :)
« Last Edit: September 20, 2014, 04:12:15 pm by CoinHoarder »
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Offline feedthemcake

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I sure hope *biophil* and *bluebit* (aka OP) got all the info they expected from this post.... On the same, note BM sure has at least 2 options whenever he decides to stop developing software -Those being teaching (Austrian/True) economics or being a politician....

I agree we should avoid asking BM for his opinion directly, making him feel bad for not answering when he has so so much to do and so little time. We should rather let him chime in when he feels like it or at designated events.

That being said, I don't agree that we should encourage him to code day and night doing little else. First of all educating people is a great way to distill something to its essence, not just dead knowledge, but live theory such as the DAC metaphor. Second, lifting ones head every once in a while to assess the state of crypto is essential to thrive in an exponential market. Third, making predictions and sticking ones neck out is a great way to expose your own biases (although bytemaster is based^2). Fourth, we don't just need massive amounts of coding, we need clarity, big ideas, and people who can integrate all the relevant information BitShares is facing to make unique decisions. Fifth, different times of the day - and week - are suited for different things. Sixth, engaging with and feeling accepted by a home base like this community (at least in small doses) is vital for enduring the harsh world.

Details can can make or break companies, but more often it is the big, strategic decisions or lack of decisions that make them crumble - or rather, make someone else race ahead of them.

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