Dan Larimer - Your thoughts on what's happening to Bitcoin right now

[CLains]

I sure hope *biophil* and *bluebit* (aka OP) got all the info they expected from this post.... On the same, note BM sure has at least 2 options whenever he decides to stop developing software -Those being teaching (Austrian/True) economics or being a politician....

I agree we should avoid asking BM for his opinion directly, making him feel bad for not answering when he has so so much to do and so little time. We should rather let him chime in when he feels like it or at designated events.

That being said, I don't agree that we should encourage him to code day and night doing little else. First of all educating people is a great way to distill something to its essence, not just dead knowledge, but live theory such as the DAC metaphor. Second, lifting ones head every once in a while to assess the state of crypto is essential to thrive in an exponential market. Third, making predictions and sticking ones neck out is a great way to expose your own biases (although bytemaster is based^2). Fourth, we don't just need massive amounts of coding, we need clarity, big ideas, and people who can integrate all the relevant information BitShares is facing to make unique decisions. Fifth, different times of the day - and week - are suited for different things. Sixth, engaging with and feeling accepted by a home base like this community (at least in small doses) is vital for enduring the harsh world.

Details can can make or break companies, but more often it is the big, strategic decisions or lack of decisions that make them crumble - or rather, make someone else race ahead of them.

[tonyk]

There is what I would like to believe and then there is what is really happening.   I would like to think that people are starting to realize that Bitcoin is unsustainable, expensive, and centralized offering little utility.   That this realization combined with the emergence of dozens of competitors that are better than bitcoin in many ways with their only weakness being the lack of network effect has caused people to realize that Bitcoin is not the long-term rocket to the moon they were looking for.

The competitors lack the network effect Bitcoin has today and thus they are not ready to take over Bitcoins market cap.   Bitcoin will continue to fall and alternatives will rise slowly until major players start adopting support for the next big solution.

Bitcoin miners are among the largest holders of bitcoin, the rise in difficulty is squeezing margins forcing them to sell a larger percentage of the mined coins.   These large mining operations are also owned by some of the largest BTC holders and they are on the front lines of the realization that mining is a dead operation walking.   I suspect that this is causing them to divest of BTC.

But then again it is probably animal spirits driving the market.

I sure hope *biophil* and *bluebit* (aka OP) got all the info they expected from this post.... On the same, note BM sure has at least 2 options whenever he decides to stop developing software -Those being teaching (Austrian/True) economics or being a politician....

[CLains]

We have been in a very consistent down trend since July.... This conspiracy stuff is denial.

Bitcoin rose 10000% in 2013 and now everyone has been expecting a bubble in 2014, and it hasn't happened - meanwhile inflation stands at 10% and we have no idea where the real low is, so we're probably going to overshoot it (did it already happen?) before everything returns to normal and confidence starts rising again.

I would like to think that people are starting to realize that Bitcoin is unsustainable, expensive, and centralized offering little utility.   That this realization combined with the emergence of dozens of competitors that are better than bitcoin in many ways with their only weakness being the lack of network effect has caused people to realize that Bitcoin is not the long-term rocket to the moon they were looking for.

Bitcoin will continue to fall and alternatives will rise slowly until major players start adopting support for the next big solution.

Pretty much agree with this, but I doubt people has "realized" it. It just happens naturally. And I definitely don't believe in slow rises. If BitShares X rises in 2015 say because of 10% YEILD it will have almost nothing to do with the economical value for the individual in the first 12 months and everything to do with speculating on the idea + the fact that they can hedge in FIAT within the system. Because truth is, if it catches on then market cap will explode from 60 million to 600 million, then back to 300 million, then 6 months later go to 3 billion then down to 1.5 billion, etc. etc. just like we have seen with Bitcoin (perhaps smoothed out 50% because of the FIAT hedge?). There are economical laws, and there are "market" laws, and the tenuous relation for us is that soon people will ask for "proof of economy" when they look at what coins to speculate on.

In sum, yes be realist about price movements, and yes be realist about proof of economy, but also yes be realist about the laws of market hype.

[merockstar]

I don't have to believe anymore; I know. Very freeing!

This. So much this. And not even BitShares X, the whole philosophy of Decentralized Autonomous Companies is absolutely the future of blockchain technology.

idk bout yall but i've decided to remain diversified.

the network effect is real, and cryptocurrency is an unprecedented technology. we don't know whether or not and if so how strongly the network effect will apply to bitcoin.

what I do know: some people have many millions of dollars invested into bitcoin. enough to comprise billions of dollars worth of market cap = there's a monster segment of wealthy people motivated to make PoW succeed.

BitShares brings a lot to the table, and I've invested accordingly. But I don't have a crystal ball, and I can't bare to part with my Bitcoin, Peercoin, Litecoin, Primecoin, and NXT.

[hasher]

competition from altcoins and more important is FED plan to increase interest rates, cut QE, BTC price decreasing following global EUR/USD trend
in current debt paradigm near years (2015-20XX) is the period when poor become poorer and rich become richer.

[Method-X]

I don't have to believe anymore; I know. Very freeing!

This. So much this. And not even BitShares X, the whole philosophy of Decentralized Autonomous Companies is absolutely the future of blockchain technology.

[okidoki]

Exactly 

[donkeypong]

This. I agree that PoW has some issues, but I believe these can be solved in the long term.

Why? PoW is extremely inefficient and that will never change. It's baked right into the whole concept. When you let go of "bitcoin faith", you'll feel a huge weight lifted off your shoulders.

It's quite a relief, isn't it? I never felt comfortable with the mining and the need for Bitcoin to add massive amounts of new money every day just to stay even. I remember when that pit in my stomach disappeared, the one that expressed an inkling of nagging doubt about whether Bitcoin and other cryptos would succeed. First I tried some other Proof of Stake-type cryptos, including NXT, but those experiments did not last long because there wasn't much to them. When I sold everything else and moved to BitShares, any doubt I had was eliminated. I don't have to believe anymore; I know. Very freeing!

[Method-X]

This. I agree that PoW has some issues, but I believe these can be solved in the long term.

Why? PoW is extremely inefficient and that will never change. It's baked right into the whole concept. When you let go of "bitcoin faith", you'll feel a huge weight lifted off your shoulders.

[Frodo03]

Anyone cashing out a significant number of coins is will do so off-market/OTC.

Theories that rationalize the price drop as large holders cashing out on-market do not hold water.

No one with enough wherewithal to accumulate thousands of coins is going to use exchanges to liquidate.

The slippage and security issues are a non-starter.

The price is dropping because folks are acquiring larger amounts of coins off-market and, very reasonably, dropping the price via the exchanges to facilitate accumulation.

Ironically, the good news of the last few months may be the reason for the drop.

Bigger money is now taking the tech seriously and that means folks are going to want open positions.

This is the way smart money opens a position.

Has the protocol failed? No.

Has a government announced a ban? No.

Is adoption decreasing? No.

Is VC investment decreasing? No.

Are adoption, VC investment and transactions increasing? Yes.

Hmmm...

This. I agree that PoW has some issues, but I believe these can be solved in the long term.

[matt608]

If the Willy report is true, which is not clear to me, then the last 2 bubbles where fuelled in part by fake demand.  If you look at the long term log chat, there was an increase in the rate of price increase during the last two bubbles, which could have been caused by Willy if it was really happening.  Therefore if the Willy report was true, then we could correct down to the rate of increase that was present before the bubbles, which would put the current bitcoin price at around $200, and the price may not recover quickly. 

If the Willy report isn't true then bitcoin is dead cheap and I'm long term bullish.

My guess is that Willy isn't true.  After all wouldn't something like that have been discovered by law enforcement and have been confirmed?  In which case there are many possible explanations for the current 'dip/crash' (Alibaba, ethereum cash out, traders giving up on bubble hopes, manipulation, simply not enough buyers, merchant sales) , but I am prepared for further downward movement just in case.  I bought my first BTSX today.  I'm still learning about it but it looks promising so far.

Hey Matt,

I didn't know you were around here in Bitsharesland.. Hi! 

I guess I'm living under a rock.. I've never heard of the Willy report.

Hey coinhoarder, I bought my first BTSX today.  Did you ever go ahead with the LTC farm?

Willy report alleges that on Mtgox there were bots that bought 650,000BTC with fake dollars:
http://www.reddit.com/r/Bitcoin/comments/26g46e/the_willy_report_proof_of_massive_fraudulent/

It's either the most advanced FUD I've seen or pretty damming info, though some seem to argue that it somehow didn't have much impact.

On bitcoin markets I'm asking about it and getting a bunch of mixed replies:
http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2gv09g/daily_discussion_friday_september_19_2014_part_2/ckn2gl6

[donkeypong]

[bytemaster]

There is what I would like to believe and then there is what is really happening.   I would like to think that people are starting to realize that Bitcoin is unsustainable, expensive, and centralized offering little utility.   That this realization combined with the emergence of dozens of competitors that are better than bitcoin in many ways with their only weakness being the lack of network effect has caused people to realize that Bitcoin is not the long-term rocket to the moon they were looking for.

The competitors lack the network effect Bitcoin has today and thus they are not ready to take over Bitcoins market cap.   Bitcoin will continue to fall and alternatives will rise slowly until major players start adopting support for the next big solution.

Bitcoin miners are among the largest holders of bitcoin, the rise in difficulty is squeezing margins forcing them to sell a larger percentage of the mined coins.   These large mining operations are also owned by some of the largest BTC holders and they are on the front lines of the realization that mining is a dead operation walking.   I suspect that this is causing them to divest of BTC.

But then again it is probably animal spirits driving the market.

[oldman]

Where does one acquire large amounts of coins "off market" ?

Might want to PM Charlie Shrem: http://www.reddit.com/r/BitcoinMarkets/comments/2grvkh/correcting_a_few_bear_misconceptions_who_is/

[gamey]

Where does one acquire large amounts of coins "off market" ?