The LatestGreatestNewThing(tm) is always one gamble beyond what is established and more stable. The greater the risk you take, the greater the potential reward. For medium term, Notes is not as wild a gamble, given what it offers it is very likely to succeed but BTSX is a safe bet. If you're looking for a bargain then wait and see if the interest in the presale of Notes keeps up, as you might get more for your money if everyone else is buying in early. My guess would be BTSX wins big longer term; Notes wins big medium term; and likely BTSX wins shorter term - next 6 months, subject to other factors and fluxes, like what price you got your Notes for. It's to be expected as with all IPOs that ~20% will sell out on the first rise. Notes will succeed if it can maintain interest widely, and that's unproven yet.