Author Topic: Knowing when to stop  (Read 6600 times)

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Offline liondani

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I think what people are worried about is that you won't stop here. Once you have erased a hard line you put in place (no dilution), how can the random investor know which other lines will be preserved? The uncertainty is hurting the community, and we are not without competition.

I think his proposal is very very good but he handled the situation not very well... Many communication mistakes... And a "feeling" that the community had not an active role because  the decisions have already been  made... It was more like a announcement, than a proposal to the community...I really believe we could end up with the merge decision without the big negative impact (at least not so much) we had,coming to consensus before the decision and not after it.... We are in the middle of a crisis and if I am not wrong in Chinese the word "crisis" is synonym with the word "opportunity"... I believe/hope it is in reality the greatest opportunity we could ever imagine ...these precious.... bitshares are waiting for us  :)


« Last Edit: November 01, 2014, 06:53:58 am by liondani »

Offline Method-X

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The halving occurs every 210,000 blocks, which is roughly equivalent to four years. Why not simply perform a miniscule adjustment on every block, which occurs roughly every 10 minutes? To be equivalent to the four-year halving, the reward amount would simply be multiplied by a cumulative constant. That constant would be the inverse of the 210000th root of 2, which is 0.99999669930458749782628258129969. The resultant value would need to be rounded down to the nearest satoshi, so that it eventually rounded down to zero.

To make the conversion as equivalent as possible, it could either be done at the midpoint between two halvings (the next one being Nov 2014), or, at the next halving (in Nov 2016), a "half of a halving", i.e., a reduction by the square root of 2 (0.70710678118654752440084436210485) could be performed.

I'm surprised that this was not implemented in the original protocol by Satoshi. It just avoids a big abrupt event that will cause chaos.

EDIT: Read what bytemaster had to say: https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=9217.msg119662#msg119662
« Last Edit: November 01, 2014, 06:03:15 am by MeTHoDx »

Offline Ander

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I think what you predict is accurate in what will unfold. I guess it depends on how many mining operations go dark and can the remaining miners foot the bills until the diff adjusts.

The well capitalized will live longer.  As soon as some of the weaker miners start dying, difficulty falls and the other miners start doing better.


It seems like this actually happened a little bit in september.  Hash rate flatlined for a few weeks because some smalller miners had to shut down due to crashing prices. 
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Offline Riverhead

I think what you predict is accurate in what will unfold. I guess it depends on how many mining operations go dark and can the remaining miners foot the bills until the diff adjusts.

Offline Ander

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So is it your belief that mining determines price? Because the big mining outfits need to pay their bills with half the revenue until price adjusts. Yes, they've been through it before but with each halving it is more centralized and the pain is much worse.

No, mining doesnt determine price.  (Price determines level of investment into mining is a lot more accurate).


If block reward halves, and price DOESNT increase, then tons of miners die off, and mining gets centralized further into the regions of the world that are most energy efficient, and the remaining miners continue on at a reduced difficulty where they can break even again.


The halving could hurt MINERS a lot.   Honestly I dont think that matters much.  Most people who use bitcoin dont mine it.  They buy and spend it, or they invest in it.  The price of bitcoin going up or down helps or hurts is popularity.  Most people dont care if some miners go out of business because they couldnt be profitable.
« Last Edit: November 01, 2014, 05:15:39 am by Ander »
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Offline Riverhead

So is it your belief that mining determines price? Because the big mining outfits need to pay their bills with half the revenue until price adjusts. Yes, they've been through it before but with each halving it is more centralized and the pain is much worse.


I think BTC will survive...but I think it's going to hurt.

Offline Ander

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There has been talk of a new difficulty algorithm called, "Gravity well" that may help BTC survive the 08/16 halving. However given BTC's lethargic pace to implement change this may not happen.

For the diff to drop they need to find blocks. If the big mining powers lose half their revenue on 8/16 and go dark it could be years before anyone else finds a block and the diff can adjust. It doesn't mean BTC is dead; just that supply is fixed until they figure something out. Nevertheless some will jump ship.

This seems kindof ridiculous to me.

Bitcoin will go through the halvening and literally nothing will happen.  Bit coin will be fine.

Its already happened before.


The problems with bitcoin are NOT that its reward is going to get halved in 2016.   In fact, bitcoin becomes a LOT more attractive at that point, with inflation down to 4%.  Proof of Work isnt nearly as much of a drag at only 4%.
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Offline Riverhead

There has been talk of a new difficulty algorithm called, "Gravity well" that may help BTC survive the 08/16 halving. However given BTC's lethargic pace to implement change this may not happen.

For the diff to drop they need to find blocks. If the big mining powers lose half their revenue on 8/16 and go dark it could be years before anyone else finds a block and the diff can adjust. It doesn't mean BTC is dead; just that supply is fixed until they figure something out. Nevertheless some will jump ship.

Offline Thom

Awesome post luckybit, thanks for spelling out what the implication of a powerful scripting engine can have on the utility of BitShares tech!

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Offline joele

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I like bytemaster's approach.

The BitShares rocket's ignition is on, but it has not taken off yet. It's a good idea to make changes now to give it enough fuel and the necessary systems to exceed escape velocity and get it into space. People are invested in, and watching the launch and having doubts because of these alterations. It would be too dangerous, though, to overhaul the rocket after lift-off when it's at full acceleration.

So I say make the adjustments now which will allow it to reach the stars. Fine tuning can be done later by spacewalking delegates.
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Offline hadrian

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I like bytemaster's approach.

The BitShares rocket's ignition is on, but it has not taken off yet. It's a good idea to make changes now to give it enough fuel and the necessary systems to exceed escape velocity and get it into space. People are invested in, and watching the launch and having doubts because of these alterations. It would be too dangerous, though, to overhaul the rocket after lift-off when it's at full acceleration.

So I say make the adjustments now which will allow it to reach the stars. Fine tuning can be done later by spacewalking delegates.
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Offline luckybit

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+5% Agree.  Enough visionary thinking, we need code-crunching.  We've got bitUSD and bitassets and other awesome stuff.  Lets get it out there.

We need both. I don't think we can ever stop innovating if you want the Bitshares community to compete with Vitalik and Ethereum. They aren't going to stop having bigger and better visions if you look at their grand designs. Vitalik is always researching, always coming up with new ideas, always willing to try new things.


POW, and the expectations from Etherium shareholders, is the albatross that hangs from Vitalik's neck.  When will the blockchain hire him to implement his vision in an economically sustainable way?  Would Etherium shareholders accept a consensus algorithm thats not based on proof of work?  Would Vitalik be willing to switch teams in order to drop the dead weight, or does he feel imprisoned by external expectations?

The key to give Bitshares an advantage or disadvantage over Ethereum will be based on whether or not Bitshares VOTE is a success.

I think with algorithmic voting we can surpass PoW in decision making flexibility. I think CP nets (conditional preference networks) will make all the difference. I would expect that if this works then Proof of Work will become irrelevant because if you have decentralized reputation, decentralized identity, decentralized decision making, then you've got everything you need to build a decentralized autonomous society.

Algorithmic voting is perhaps the holy grail. The DACs which allow for the best decision making will have advantages over the DACs which can reach a consensus but slow, or which cannot adapt because of politics. Bitcoin has political issues because of Proof of Work creating these issues so now it cannot adapt or innovate. Ethereum if it falls into that same trap will be able to perhaps get out of it because Vitalik is forward thinking but it gives an advantage to Bitshares which is designed specifically to allow humans to operate the DAC through voting.

When we think of voting we usually think of the flawed process we call voting but Proof of Work is also a form of voting. Algorithmic voting could allow users to use a voting language to script their preferences on a range of issues so that certain votes are conditional. So you could for example abide by a smart contract which promises your votes to go down different paths depending on the conditions ( such as market conditions, events that occur or whatever).

In this case over time as the DAC gets smarter it could adjust to the preferences of shareholders ever more efficiently. That advantage is an advantage Bitcoin will never have with it's mining cartel and Ethereum could have due to being Turing complete but may not.

For example you could have your votes scripted to react to an oracle so that if share prices go up for a specific company, DAC or asset your votes will go up or down. You could have the results of a football game determine where your votes if your script chooses to use that feed. This is the sort of power you can have once you have a Turing complete voting language.

These are some of the technical examples of what the big picture could look like. Bitshares could be as big of an advance to human history as democracy was or the birth of the United States was. It sounds crazy but once you have a way for a DAC to learn the preferences of the community and adapt using artificial intelligence then traditional governments (and corporations) will not be able to keep up. Once a DAC knows your preferences due to artificial intelligence it could start recommending, suggesting how you can vote to better meet your own goals based on it's knowledge of your preferences.

Not only do I think we can't stop but I think we need to hire 100 developers so we can rush to innovate, discover, build, and implement. I also think the Bitshares team should seek advice from computer science professors who study computational voting theory.
« Last Edit: October 31, 2014, 11:22:03 pm by luckybit »
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Offline biophil

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Once turning complete scripting is implemented in the SuperDAC, how will it be different than Etherium is trying to be?

It will have the benefits of Ethereum while ALSO having all the benefits of Bitshares.  (DPoS, TITAN, speed, bitAssets, etc).
yhea .. they are still discussing POW .. and honestly .. I don't see a different way of distributing their initial stake as they just don't have PTS/AGS .. just their IPO ..

Sounds like a PTS/AGS sharedrop is in order... ;)

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Offline jae208

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“I think what people are worried about is that you won't stop here. Once you have erased a hard line you put in place (no dilution), how can the random investor know which other lines will be preserved? The uncertainty is hurting the community, and we are not without competition.”

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I think everyone is just nervous about the changes. I don't think anybody here wants to see Bitshares fail.
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Offline Empirical1.1

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I agree with the OP and fully recognize the problem.   Every change I am making right now is toward focusing in on *ONE THING* and doing it right/well with a long term plan.

I want to color in the details on BitAssets and make them easy to use prior to branching out to many different features.

We are focusing and correcting and as a result are now stronger than ever.   We need a solid foundation prior to major growth even if it means taking a few steps back in the short term.

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