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Offline jonasmeyer

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Knowing when to stop
« on: October 31, 2014, 09:53:25 PM »

Several people have attempted to explain why the price of BTSX has fallen so dramatically recently. I can't claim any special authority, but I haven't seen my theory expressed yet, so I will do so and let the community judge the correctness.

BitShares offers some of the best technology in the cryptocurrency space. Specifically, DPOS and the peg mechanism are both brilliant economic / technological solutions that are proven, solve two of the largest problems with Bitcoin, and represent a real advancement over their competitive ideas.

Unfortunately, I am seeing a pattern that I have seen at several of the early stage silicon valley startup flame-outs that I have participated in as an engineer. (OK, so I guess I am claiming a LITTLE bit of special authority). Namely, the following pattern.

1) A brilliant engineer and technologist comes in and produces an amazing new solution to a real problem, and collects a sizable seed community. This attracts VCs (or in this case, capital from investors like myself).
2) The technologist now turned CEO, upon receiving this massive validation of their work in the form of millions of dollars of capital inflow, correctly concludes that the ideas that they have had so far were brilliant.
3) The technologist concludes that since their past ideas were great, that the future ones will be also. This is also probably true. However, large swaths of the community get alienated. They were buying into a particular vision, and that vision is now being discarded. They pull their capital, and the business suffers deeply. Sometimes it recovers, and sometimes it doesn't.

I'm not pulling my funding, but I suspect large swaths of our community have. It's important to know when to stop drawing outlines, and when to start coloring in the details of the vision. The most successful entrepreneurs know when to do that. Some of them go too far in the opposite direction, stop innovating altogether, and coast for the rest of their lives, but all the successful ones know when to stop making sweeping changes, or when to put the sweeping changes into a new vehicle.

Bytemaster, this particular set of changes you are advocating implementing might be good. Frankly, I'm not equipped to figure it out, and I suspect that it will take years of market validation to determine the answer. However, the BitSharesX of just a few weeks ago was brilliant, and was growing by leaps and bounds (if you compared it to a traditional business) even when the larger industry (cryptocurrencies in general) were shrinking. This is hard feedback, but I hope that you understand that I am coming from a place of constructive criticism, and an honest desire to improve BitSharesX.

I think what people are worried about is that you won't stop here. Once you have erased a hard line you put in place (no dilution), how can the random investor know which other lines will be preserved? The uncertainty is hurting the community, and we are not without competition.

Offline luckybit

Re: Knowing when to stop
« Reply #1 on: October 31, 2014, 09:56:39 PM »
Several people have attempted to explain why the price of BTSX has fallen so dramatically recently. I can't claim any special authority, but I haven't seen my theory expressed yet, so I will do so and let the community judge the correctness.

BitShares offers some of the best technology in the cryptocurrency space. Specifically, DPOS and the peg mechanism are both brilliant economic / technological solutions that are proven, solve two of the largest problems with Bitcoin, and represent a real advancement over their competitive ideas.

Unfortunately, I am seeing a pattern that I have seen at several of the early stage silicon valley startup flame-outs that I have participated in as an engineer. (OK, so I guess I am claiming a LITTLE bit of special authority). Namely, the following pattern.

1) A brilliant engineer and technologist comes in and produces an amazing new solution to a real problem, and collects a sizable seed community. This attracts VCs (or in this case, capital from investors like myself).
2) The technologist now turned CEO, upon receiving this massive validation of their work in the form of millions of dollars of capital inflow, correctly concludes that the ideas that they have had so far were brilliant.
3) The technologist concludes that since their past ideas were great, that the future ones will be also. This is also probably true. However, large swaths of the community get alienated. They were buying into a particular vision, and that vision is now being discarded. They pull their capital, and the business suffers deeply. Sometimes it recovers, and sometimes it doesn't.

I'm not pulling my funding, but I suspect large swaths of our community have. It's important to know when to stop drawing outlines, and when to start coloring in the details of the vision. The most successful entrepreneurs know when to do that. Some of them go too far in the opposite direction, stop innovating altogether, and coast for the rest of their lives, but all the successful ones know when to stop making sweeping changes, or when to put the sweeping changes into a new vehicle.

Bytemaster, this particular set of changes you are advocating implementing might be good. Frankly, I'm not equipped to figure it out, and I suspect that it will take years of market validation to determine the answer. However, the BitSharesX of just a few weeks ago was brilliant, and was growing by leaps and bounds (if you compared it to a traditional business) even when the larger industry (cryptocurrencies in general) were shrinking. This is hard feedback, but I hope that you understand that I am coming from a place of constructive criticism, and an honest desire to improve BitSharesX.

I think what people are worried about is that you won't stop here. Once you have erased a hard line you put in place (no dilution), how can the random investor know which other lines will be preserved? The uncertainty is hurting the community, and we are not without competition.

It's also true that companies that cannot adapt quickly don't last. Google is still around.
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Offline matt608

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Re: Knowing when to stop
« Reply #2 on: October 31, 2014, 09:57:46 PM »
 +5% Agree.  Enough visionary thinking, we need code-crunching.  We've got bitUSD and bitassets and other awesome stuff.  Lets get it out there.

Offline xeroc

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Re: Knowing when to stop
« Reply #3 on: October 31, 2014, 10:01:11 PM »
Thanks for posting!
My opinion on this is:
+ I can wait some years!
+ people keep on talking about dilution hear dilution there .. they don't see the big picture and they don't see that BTC has a significantly higher dilution that is WASTED ..

Anyway, once people understand what this "share injection"/"dilution" is good for .. and that it IS GOOD for the ecosystem .. we (the strong hands) will feel glad to be part of it! </IMHO>
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Offline suwoder

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Re: Knowing when to stop
« Reply #4 on: October 31, 2014, 10:03:25 PM »

“I think what people are worried about is that you won't stop here. Once you have erased a hard line you put in place (no dilution), how can the random investor know which other lines will be preserved? The uncertainty is hurting the community, and we are not without competition.”

 +5% +5%




Offline bytemaster

Re: Knowing when to stop
« Reply #5 on: October 31, 2014, 10:07:34 PM »
I agree with the OP and fully recognize the problem.   Every change I am making right now is toward focusing in on *ONE THING* and doing it right/well with a long term plan.

I want to color in the details on BitAssets and make them easy to use prior to branching out to many different features.

We are focusing and correcting and as a result are now stronger than ever.   We need a solid foundation prior to major growth even if it means taking a few steps back in the short term.
For the latest updates checkout my blog: http://bytemaster.bitshares.org
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract between myself and anyone else.   These are merely my opinions and I reserve the right to change them at any time.

Offline Method-X

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Re: Knowing when to stop
« Reply #6 on: October 31, 2014, 10:11:33 PM »
Yeah, investor uncertainty is what I'm hearing from people I speak privately with too. Nobody knows what will be proposed next and this frightens them quite a bit. However, I do believe bytemaster recognises this and it working on one simple message going forward. I'm optimistic for the future.

Offline luckybit

Re: Knowing when to stop
« Reply #7 on: October 31, 2014, 10:12:18 PM »
+5% Agree.  Enough visionary thinking, we need code-crunching.  We've got bitUSD and bitassets and other awesome stuff.  Lets get it out there.

We need both. I don't think we can ever stop innovating if you want the Bitshares community to compete with Vitalik and Ethereum. They aren't going to stop having bigger and better visions if you look at their grand designs. Vitalik is always researching, always coming up with new ideas, always willing to try new things.

Lessons learned from other industries don't apply to here 1:1. Time moves a lot slower in those other industries while time for us moves extremely quickly. 2 years in our space is like 5 or 10 years in the tech industry.

How did Google manage to stay on top? They have a strategy of always innovating, testing out moonshot ideas, but also improving on what they have which is a success. The advantage of Bitshares is that it's more adaptable than Bitcoin and decisions can be made at this time with minimal consequences.

So in my opinion it is better that Bytemaster innovate as much as he can right now and put the foundation in place so that these sorts of decisions can be made formally through Bitshares VOTE in the future. He has to make Bitshares future proof or else Bitcoin could come with sidechains, Ethereum could come with Turing complete scripting, NXT could come with transparent forging, and they all have programmers who can crunch out code.

What the Bitshares community has is Bytemaster who is not just a programmer but also a visionary. If he stops being a visionary then Bitshares will lose everything that makes it unique in my opinion.
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Offline Method-X

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Re: Knowing when to stop
« Reply #8 on: October 31, 2014, 10:14:19 PM »
I agree with the OP and fully recognize the problem.   Every change I am making right now is toward focusing in on *ONE THING* and doing it right/well with a long term plan.

I want to color in the details on BitAssets and make them easy to use prior to branching out to many different features.

We are focusing and correcting and as a result are now stronger than ever.   We need a solid foundation prior to major growth even if it means taking a few steps back in the short term.

I can't +5% this enough.

Offline sschechter

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Re: Knowing when to stop
« Reply #9 on: October 31, 2014, 10:15:30 PM »
If you're new to the community, these kinds of sweeping changes are nothing new.  Whats different now is that BTSX is out in the open being freely traded, with a market constantly judging us, 24 hours a day.  In the past, the controversial decision has been the right one.  Eliminate mining, implement DPOS, and now, consolidation and re-prioritization of focus. It sucks seeing the share price take such a beating, hopefully, this is temporary.
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Offline luckybit

Re: Knowing when to stop
« Reply #10 on: October 31, 2014, 10:24:43 PM »
Thanks for posting!
My opinion on this is:
+ I can wait some years!
+ people keep on talking about dilution hear dilution there .. they don't see the big picture and they don't see that BTC has a significantly higher dilution that is WASTED ..

Anyway, once people understand what this "share injection"/"dilution" is good for .. and that it IS GOOD for the ecosystem .. we (the strong hands) will feel glad to be part of it! </IMHO>

I think most people who are complaining right now don't see the big vision or the true potential of what Bitshares could become. They are looking at the fact that the price is going down and reacting to it like how people react to Bitcoin when the price goes down.

Honestly it seems like we have a lot of speculators who don't really have a grand vision or see a big picture. If the big picture were to make a lot of money then the people who cashed out at $100,000,000 made their money. If the big picture is to change the world and our way of life then that is a much bigger challenge.

To do that you need to create DACs which allow people to quit their day jobs and dedicate themselves full time to this industry. If it requires dilution to get people to do that then let it be. It also has to allow us to do things which no one could have imaged were possible before and by providing greater flexibility levels you can remove limits. It requires speculators but those speculators should be making money from within the Bitshares decentralized exchange and not from the centralized exchanges.

The fact that the price is going down and people are reacting like how they are to Bitcoin provides evidence that a lot of these reactions are from people who are used to day trading Bitcoin. They may not really believe in building the Bitshares community, or see the grand vision, or have a grand vision for Bitshares that they want to help bring into reality, and without these sorts of dreams how do you convince people to do anything except focus on maximum profit?

In my opinion the profits will come in 08-01-2016. Everyone who understands that date knows exactly what will happen on that date. Bitshares has to remain in the top 5 market caps while also innovating, increasing utility, and adapting by implementing the latest breakthrough technologies. It's not a time to focus on share price but it is time to focus on building the foundation so that come 08-01-2016 once people rush into Bitshares with billions of dollars the entire ecosystem will be permanently bootstrapped.

If the correct decisions are made today then 08-01-2016 will be a new start for all altcoins. That new start will bring billions and lots of media attention. The fact that DACs can self fund, that there can be decentralized decision making, sets this technology apart and only Ethereum is thinking bigger at this point. If the level of innovation can be maintained then speculators will have their chance to get rich in a few years.
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Offline bytemaster

Re: Knowing when to stop
« Reply #11 on: October 31, 2014, 10:27:50 PM »
Quote
08-01-2016. Everyone who understands that date knows exactly what will happen

Please tell me... what happens on that date?
For the latest updates checkout my blog: http://bytemaster.bitshares.org
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract between myself and anyone else.   These are merely my opinions and I reserve the right to change them at any time.

Offline Ander

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Re: Knowing when to stop
« Reply #12 on: October 31, 2014, 10:29:43 PM »
Quote
08-01-2016. Everyone who understands that date knows exactly what will happen

Please tell me... what happens on that date?

That is the estimated date when the next bitcoin reward halving will occur.

I dont really see why that is a big deal for us though (other than that it might increase bitcoin prices some, which helps crypto in general).
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Offline xeroc

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Re: Knowing when to stop
« Reply #13 on: October 31, 2014, 10:31:47 PM »
Quote
08-01-2016. Everyone who understands that date knows exactly what will happen

Please tell me... what happens on that date?

That is the estimated date when the next bitcoin reward halving will occur.

I dont really see why that is a big deal for us though (other than that it might increase bitcoin prices some, which helps crypto in general).
For me that explains it ..

Bitcoin halving will result in unprofitable mining! pretty quickly. .
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Offline luckybit

Re: Knowing when to stop
« Reply #14 on: October 31, 2014, 10:32:06 PM »
Quote
08-01-2016. Everyone who understands that date knows exactly what will happen

Please tell me... what happens on that date?

Bitcoin block reward halving.
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