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Offline Ander

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The absolute hard cap on # of BTS is 3,761,440,000
« on: November 11, 2014, 08:26:16 AM »

With the addition of the pay reward halving every 4 years, there will now be an absolute hard cap on the number of bitshares.


Starting BTS total: 2.5 billion.    This comes from current BTSX (2 billion), plus stake allocated to PTS, AGS, DNS, and VOTE (500 million total).

Starting reward per year: 157,680,000.    (50 BTS per block * 6 blocks per minute * 60 minutes per hour * 24 hours per day * 365 days per year).

4 years at this rate is 630,720,000.  After that, the reward halves, and in the next 4 years, we add half that.  And so on.   The total number of bitshares that will EvER be paid to delegates is capped at 1,261,440,000.    (In reality it will be less, because many delegates are low pay delegates).



Here is the hard cap of BTS at 4 year intervals:

Nov 2014:  2,500,000,000  (maximum 6.3% a year inflation)
Nov 2018:  3,130,720,000  (maximum 3.1% a year inflation)
Nov 2022:  3,446,080,000  (maximum 1.6% a year inflation)
Nov 2026:  3,603,760,000  (maximum 0.8% a year inflation)
Nov 2030:  3,682,600,000  (maximum 0.4% a year inflation)
Forever:     3,761,440,000


Also, every share of BTS that is ever burned reduces all of these numbers by 1!  So every time a share of BTSX is ever burned for trasnaction fees, etc, this cap goes down!

Every time any delegate ever receives less than a full pay block reward, the hard cap goes down!

For example, we are going to have many 3% pay delegates, in with a few full pay delegates who are developers, marketing team, etc.
Every single time one of those 3% pay delegates signs a block, these numbers go down by 48.5, because that is 48.5 BTS that cannot be created (because the opportunity to pay the full 50 BTS was missed).



So what is the reality of how many BTS there will be?  Significantly less than these numbers!  These are a hard cap which occurs only if there are 101 full pay delegates and no shares of BTSX are burned ever.  Both of those are not true, and thus the actual amount of BTS will be much lower.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2014, 11:04:37 PM by Ander »
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Offline eagleeye

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Re: The absolute hard cap on # of BTS is 3,760,800,000
« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2014, 08:30:59 AM »
the dynamics of inflation and burning.  Nice! +5%

Offline lakerta06

Re: The absolute hard cap on # of BTS is 3,760,800,000
« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2014, 08:32:07 AM »
With the addition of the pay reward halving every 4 years, there will now be an absolute hard cap on the number of bitshares.


Starting BTS total: 2.5 billion.    This comes from current BTSX (2 billion), plus stake allocated to PTS, AGS, DNS, and VOTE (500 million total).

Starting reward per year: 157,680,000.    (50 BTS per block * 6 blocks per minute * 60 minutes per hour * 24 hours per day * 365 days per year).

4 years at this rate is 630,720,000.  After that, the reward halves, and in the next 4 years, we add half that.  And so on.   The total number of bitshares that will EvER be paid to delegates is capped at 1,261,440,000.    (In reality it will be less, because many delegates are low pay delegates).



Here is the hard cap of BTS at 4 year intervals:

Nov 2014:  2,500,000,000
Nov 2018:  3,130,400,000
Nov 2012:  3,445,600,000
Nov 2016:  3,603,200,000
Nov 2020:  3,682,000,000

Forever:     3,761,440,000


Also, every share of BTS that is ever burned reduces all of these numbers by 1!  So every time a share of BTSX is ever burned for trasnaction fees, etc, this cap goes down!

Every time any delegate ever receives less than a full pay block reward, the hard cap goes down!

For example, we are going to have many 3% pay delegates, in with a few full pay delegates who are developers, marketing team, etc.
Every single time one of those 3% pay delegates signs a block, these numbers go down by 47, because that is 47 BTS that cannot be created (because the opportunity to pay the full 50 BTS was missed).



So what is the reality of how many BTS there will be?  Significantly less than these numbers!  These are a hard cap which occurs only if there are 101 full pay delegates and no shares of BTSX are burned ever.  Both of those are not true, and thus the actual amount of BTS will be much lower.

small correction

Offline mint chocolate chip

Re: The absolute hard cap on # of BTS is 3,760,800,000
« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2014, 08:35:42 AM »
For example, we are going to have many 3% pay delegates, in with a few full pay delegates who are developers, marketing team, etc.
Every single time one of those 3% pay delegates signs a block, these numbers go down by 47, because that is 47 BTS that cannot be created (because the opportunity to pay the full 50 BTS was missed).

Is 47 right? Think maybe it is 48.5

Offline Ander

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Re: The absolute hard cap on # of BTS is 3,761,440,000
« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2014, 08:38:04 AM »
Fixed the fact that I missed an 8 in the initial calculation of the yearly reward, 1,576,800,000 instead of 1,576,000,000. 
Fixed the fact that 48.5 BTS is not created when a 3% pay delegate creates a block, not 47.
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Offline xeroc

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Re: The absolute hard cap on # of BTS is 3,761,440,000
« Reply #5 on: November 11, 2014, 09:44:01 AM »
With the addition of the pay reward halving every 4 years, there will now be an absolute hard cap on the number of bitshares.


Starting BTS total: 2.5 billion.    This comes from current BTSX (2 billion), plus stake allocated to PTS, AGS, DNS, and VOTE (500 million total).

Starting reward per year: 157,680,000.    (50 BTS per block * 6 blocks per minute * 60 minutes per hour * 24 hours per day * 365 days per year).

4 years at this rate is 630,720,000.  After that, the reward halves, and in the next 4 years, we add half that.  And so on.   The total number of bitshares that will EvER be paid to delegates is capped at 1,261,440,000.    (In reality it will be less, because many delegates are low pay delegates).



Here is the hard cap of BTS at 4 year intervals:

Nov 2014:  2,500,000,000  (maximum 6.3% a year inflation)
Nov 2018:  3,130,720,000  (maximum 3.1% a year inflation)
Nov 2012:  3,446,080,000  (maximum 1.6% a year inflation)
Nov 2016:  3,603,760,000  (maximum 0.8% a year inflation)
Nov 2020:  3,682,600,000  (maximum 0.4% a year inflation)
Forever:     3,761,440,000


Also, every share of BTS that is ever burned reduces all of these numbers by 1!  So every time a share of BTSX is ever burned for trasnaction fees, etc, this cap goes down!

Every time any delegate ever receives less than a full pay block reward, the hard cap goes down!

For example, we are going to have many 3% pay delegates, in with a few full pay delegates who are developers, marketing team, etc.
Every single time one of those 3% pay delegates signs a block, these numbers go down by 48.5, because that is 48.5 BTS that cannot be created (because the opportunity to pay the full 50 BTS was missed).



So what is the reality of how many BTS there will be?  Significantly less than these numbers!  These are a hard cap which occurs only if there are 101 full pay delegates and no shares of BTSX are burned ever.  Both of those are not true, and thus the actual amount of BTS will be much lower.
+5% .. thanks for the summary
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Offline Riverhead

Re: The absolute hard cap on # of BTS is 3,761,440,000
« Reply #6 on: November 11, 2014, 01:04:18 PM »
The math is correct. For anyone interested in the full table here it is. The antidilutionists will be happy in 2140 :).

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1M65Gt1mFstAgTkECJfUX18f187tGzqJeXT7877qLv-M/edit?usp=sharing



Offline carpet ride

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Re: The absolute hard cap on # of BTS is 3,761,440,000
« Reply #7 on: November 11, 2014, 05:50:17 PM »
Don't forget that we will be able to vote and even hard fork to change this rule.  No need to constrain consensus.  There may be opportunities we do not yet see


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Offline islandking

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Re: The absolute hard cap on # of BTS is 3,761,440,000
« Reply #8 on: November 11, 2014, 05:52:56 PM »
There will be BTS that is burned over time correct?
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Offline bytemaster

Re: The absolute hard cap on # of BTS is 3,761,440,000
« Reply #9 on: November 11, 2014, 05:54:19 PM »
There will be BTS that is burned over time correct?

Yes... at some point fees will be greater than dilution and thus BTS is burned.
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Offline Riverhead

Re: The absolute hard cap on # of BTS is 3,761,440,000
« Reply #10 on: November 11, 2014, 05:55:16 PM »
Yes. This is a cap.The real dilution will be much less. For example at the fork all delegates will be 3%. That's burning 48.5 out of 50 shares per block.

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Offline Ander

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Re: The absolute hard cap on # of BTS is 3,761,440,000
« Reply #11 on: November 11, 2014, 05:55:28 PM »
There will be BTS that is burned over time correct?

Yes, for many reasons.  There will also be lots of this BTS that wont actually be paid out.

I doubt the BTS supply wil ever actually be higher than 3 billion.  At some point we should reach a point where supply is actually going down.
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Offline carpet ride

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The absolute hard cap on # of BTS is 3,761,440,000
« Reply #12 on: November 11, 2014, 06:10:58 PM »
There will be BTS that is burned over time correct?

Yes, for many reasons.  There will also be lots of this BTS that wont actually be paid out.

I doubt the BTS supply wil ever actually be higher than 3 billion.  At some point we should reach a point where supply is actually going down.

Remember that it won't be long before there is a litecoin to our bitcoin.  If we can't compete, we'll eventually be overtaken.  We may always need marketing via dilution to stay #1.  Why put a cap on it at all? 


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Offline Ander

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Re: The absolute hard cap on # of BTS is 3,761,440,000
« Reply #13 on: November 11, 2014, 06:15:15 PM »
Remember that it won't be long before there is a litecoin to our bitcoin.  If we can't compete, we'll eventually be overtaken.  We may always need marketing via dilution to stay #1.  Why put a cap on it at all? 

Because you are the only one who likes the idea of unlimited dilution, and there are tons of people out there that dumped their BTSX because they were afraid of the dilution, especially the part where it was not a fixed, known amount.

There will eventually be a litecoin to our bitshares, and like litecoin to bitcoin, it will be under 5% of our market cap.  Unless we dilute infinitely and they do not, in which case they will pass us. 

The hard cap is absolutely critical to investor confidence.  We need this to win back a lot of the support we lost in october.
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Online Frodo

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Re: The absolute hard cap on # of BTS is 3,761,440,000
« Reply #14 on: November 11, 2014, 06:18:12 PM »
In the (very) long run this isn't feasible. As delegates don't get paid by tx fees anymore and the reward approaches 0. I guess that is not really a problem right now, but seems a bit weird to me. People opposed to BitShares might use this argumentation to show that either our "hard cap" is a lie (due to inevitable hard fork) or the system is just going to break.

This is probably not a popular opinion but denying dilution is just like this:



Someone simply has to pay for stuff.
« Last Edit: November 11, 2014, 06:31:23 PM by Frodo »

 

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