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Offline luckybit

Bitcoin Black Friday could dramatically affect the price of BTS
« on: November 20, 2014, 06:28:07 PM »

I think now that the holiday seasons are kicking in we might begin to see a dramatic drop in price of BTS over the same time period.

I also think Bitcoin prices might go down as people spend it more than usual. Are my economics wrong?

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Offline xeroc

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Re: Bitcoin Black Friday could dramatically affect the price of BTS
« Reply #1 on: November 20, 2014, 06:29:54 PM »
I gave up predicting short term valuations .. but your arguments are reasonable!
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Offline Ander

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Re: Bitcoin Black Friday could dramatically affect the price of BTS
« Reply #2 on: November 20, 2014, 06:31:33 PM »
I dont believe that people using bitcoin by spending on merchants actually hurts the price.  Generally people also buy bitcoin when they do this.

Traditionally this is one of the best times of the year for bitcoin.  We had strong rallies in november in 2011 and 2013. 



Of course, the price could continue to drop.  But I dont think it is because of black friday.
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Offline luckybit

Re: Bitcoin Black Friday could dramatically affect the price of BTS
« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2014, 06:46:33 PM »
I gave up predicting short term valuations .. but your arguments are reasonable!

So far I seem to have been right. I've been predicting a downtrend through the entire holiday season.

I don't think we can expect the price to go up unless there is both marketing and people with money to spend. Last year Bitcoin spiked up because people in China were buying at the same time people in America were selling but also possibly because of manipulation.

This year we aren't seeing a spike in Bitcoin buying coming from the USA or from China. This would mean the price of all altcoins could continue going down as miners keep printing more, as early adopters spend during Black Friday, etc.

The good thing about Bitshares is we have BitUSD for bear markets like this. Bitshares in particular isn't in a bear market but Bitcoin itself is in a bear market and that is what I think is slowly draining the money out of all altcoins in general. It will only be when people figure out they can save their money in BitAssets and trust it enough that Bitshares will rise in price.

These are just theories of mine though. I don't know if it is true myself so this thread is to hear about different theories on how to actually protect ourselves from volatility in Bitshares.

Another question is how much impact will the delegate dilution have on the price? Wouldn't some delegates cash out?
« Last Edit: November 20, 2014, 07:02:03 PM by luckybit »
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Offline Ander

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Re: Bitcoin Black Friday could dramatically affect the price of BTS
« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2014, 07:04:09 PM »
You might be right on the price direction, but even then I think you are wrong on the reason.  People using bitcoins doesnt decrease their value.  On the contrary, people being able to use bitcoins is why they have value.

Bitcoin is not in a bear market due to people being able to use their bitcoins.  (And also, the 'black friday' spending hasnt even happened yet, so it couldnt be the cause of a recent decline).   Its in a bear market to correct the over exuberance from 2013.


The good thing about Bitshares is we have BitUSD for bear markets like this. Bitshares in particular isn't in a bear market but Bitcoin itself is in a bear market

Actually both are in a bear market.  Bitshares has gone down from 9000 satoshis to 4000 over the past two months.  Thats a more than 50% drop when measured in bitcoins.   
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Offline luckybit

Re: Bitcoin Black Friday could dramatically affect the price of BTS
« Reply #5 on: November 20, 2014, 07:11:08 PM »
You might be right on the price direction, but even then I think you are wrong on the reason.  People using bitcoins doesnt decrease their value.  On the contrary, people being able to use bitcoins is why they have value.
I was talking about price not utility. The price could go a lot lower and still have utility but then all of the market caps for altcoins would go down. When you bought into Bitshares Bitcoins were going for $1000 so when Bitcoins are going for $100 how much did you lose?

Bitcoin is not in a bear market due to people being able to use their bitcoins.  (And also, the 'black friday' spending hasnt even happened yet, so it couldnt be the cause of a recent decline).   Its in a bear market to correct the over exuberance from 2013.
It's going to happen very soon though and people might be preparing now. What will delegates do though? If they cash out then what happens?

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Offline Ander

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Re: Bitcoin Black Friday could dramatically affect the price of BTS
« Reply #6 on: November 20, 2014, 07:25:10 PM »
You might be right on the price direction, but even then I think you are wrong on the reason.  People using bitcoins doesnt decrease their value.  On the contrary, people being able to use bitcoins is why they have value.
I was talking about price not utility. The price could go a lot lower and still have utility but then all of the market caps for altcoins would go down. When you bought into Bitshares Bitcoins were going for $1000 so when Bitcoins are going for $100 how much did you lose?

Bitcoin is not in a bear market due to people being able to use their bitcoins.  (And also, the 'black friday' spending hasnt even happened yet, so it couldnt be the cause of a recent decline).   Its in a bear market to correct the over exuberance from 2013.
It's going to happen very soon though and people might be preparing now. What will delegates do though? If they cash out then what happens?

Actually when I bought into bitshares, bitcoins were going for around $300-400.   

I get that you are super bearish on bitcoin and think its going to $100 but I think you are wrong.  If bitcoin continues to go down from here I think the bottom will be mid 200s at the lowest. 

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Offline liondani

Re: Bitcoin Black Friday could dramatically affect the price of BTS
« Reply #7 on: November 20, 2014, 07:32:08 PM »
But is it not a good opportunity for most people to invest on holidays?
I mean I know a lot of people in Greece they wait to invest on December because it's the only opportunity they have due the double pay check of the end of year...(we have still the Christmas paycheck "gift")And for most family’s it's the only month where  money can spend for "not important" things... I think identical thinking have people from other Country’s too... So in my opinion maybe it will happens  exactly the opposite from what you are saying!

PS I think on holidays that's a reason so many gadget are sold...and bitshares in a way, is a gadget !!! (maybe it's worth for a slogan :P)
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Offline kisa

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Re: Bitcoin Black Friday could dramatically affect the price of BTS
« Reply #8 on: November 20, 2014, 07:43:22 PM »
Imho BTC consolidating for another strong bull. The thing is far from dead and might slowly but surely dominate certain niches and gain wider acceptance. More people experiment with it and more people consider it rather normal to hold some and pay with BTC. Just patience needed for now, don't bet on new BTC lows anytime soon. BTS devs and marketers are hopefully working hard on resolving issues and preparing major pushes to come over the next several months...
« Last Edit: November 20, 2014, 08:10:57 PM by kisa »

Offline luckybit

Re: Bitcoin Black Friday could dramatically affect the price of BTS
« Reply #9 on: November 20, 2014, 08:32:52 PM »
You might be right on the price direction, but even then I think you are wrong on the reason.  People using bitcoins doesnt decrease their value.  On the contrary, people being able to use bitcoins is why they have value.
I was talking about price not utility. The price could go a lot lower and still have utility but then all of the market caps for altcoins would go down. When you bought into Bitshares Bitcoins were going for $1000 so when Bitcoins are going for $100 how much did you lose?

Bitcoin is not in a bear market due to people being able to use their bitcoins.  (And also, the 'black friday' spending hasnt even happened yet, so it couldnt be the cause of a recent decline).   Its in a bear market to correct the over exuberance from 2013.
It's going to happen very soon though and people might be preparing now. What will delegates do though? If they cash out then what happens?

Actually when I bought into bitshares, bitcoins were going for around $300-400.   

I get that you are super bearish on bitcoin and think its going to $100 but I think you are wrong.  If bitcoin continues to go down from here I think the bottom will be mid 200s at the lowest.

The reason I'm not sure how low Bitcoins can go is because you have miners who can dump, you have hackers of MtGox who can dump, you have hackers from scams who can dump, you have all the various businesses accepting via BitPay on Black Friday who can dump immediately.

Then you have exchanges, mining pool operators, it's just a mess. If it does hit $100 I don't think it would stay there for long but with sufficient dumping I don't see what would prevent it from hitting $100 either. We basically just have to hope that there isn't another big hack where tens of thousands of coins go missing.

Imho BTC consolidating for another strong bull. The thing is far from dead and might slowly but surely dominate certain niches and gain wider acceptance. More people experiment with it and more people consider it rather normal to hold some and pay with BTC. Just patience needed for now, don't bet on new BTC lows anytime soon. BTS devs and marketers are hopefully working hard on resolving issues and preparing major pushes to come over the next several months...

When the market cap was $100 million we heard the same promises. When Bitcoin was $1000+ we heard the same excuses. At this point just looking at the charts the trend line points down.

BTS looks to be headed to below a penny and once that happens I think the floor is whatever price the average person bought BTS at. But I don't see it going that low unless marketing fails and people get out for better opportunities like Ethereum / Counterparty.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2014, 08:35:58 PM by luckybit »
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