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Offline Ander

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Is this the bottom?
« on: November 21, 2014, 02:34:31 AM »

I think there is a good chance that this is the bottom in BTS or very close to it.

The elliot wave count at this point looks simple enough that even I, an amateur, can count it:



I labeled the august rise as a I, because it was the first major move up since BTS began trading this summer.  Of course, people paid various prices for their BTS by donating to AGS or donating PTS, but I dont know how to count all that. 

The entire decline since August looks like like a 3-3-5 ABC.  Wave 3 of C extended due to the terrible sentiment at that time, due to the dilution and merger and all the associated pain.

Note the divergence in he MACD.  We are at a slightly lower low for wave 5 of C of II, but the MACD is much higher. 

The blue wave III arrow is not meant to indicate a timeframe or a price target, it only indicates that the next rise has begun.


Note that wave 5 of C is not necessarily complete yet.  We could continue down into new lows to complete 5 of C.  The decline could be over but it is not necessarily completed yet. 
A rise above .117 CNY or so should indicate that 5 of C was finished and we are in wave 3. 
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zerosum

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Re: Is this the bottom?
« Reply #1 on: November 21, 2014, 02:41:09 AM »
I used other highly unscientific methods to call the bottom as well.
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=11569.msg152504#msg152504

'Other', because I consider the technical analyses voodoo science, sorry nothing personal; actually I think they are helpful if you put like 10-15% weight on the technical analyses results.

But honestly - I have no clue, if this is indeed the bottom.

Offline Ander

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Re: Is this the bottom?
« Reply #2 on: November 21, 2014, 02:43:41 AM »


A closeup of wave V of C (this week).

Note the positive divergence on MACD.  This is what makes me think the decline might be over.

There is also a positive divergence on 4h MACD, between the recent .081 low and the .084 low at the beginning of november. 


My final piece of evidence that this might be the bottom is that when bitcoin tanked an hour ago, from 365 to 350, BTS not only didnt drop with it, but actually managed to rise from .083 to .087.
« Last Edit: November 21, 2014, 02:46:00 AM by Ander »
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Offline Ander

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Re: Is this the bottom?
« Reply #3 on: November 21, 2014, 04:17:22 AM »
Price action so far is very bullish!


Also: more whale signalling sighted.  Someone bought 400k shares at .094 and put up a 1.5 million buy wall there.  Then a 6 million sell wall appeared at .095 and .096, and then disappeared again within seconds.  Then the First guy moved his 1.5M buy wall down to .090.  Then someone bought 300k up to .097.    Very interesting, I wish I knew what it meant.

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Offline Ander

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Re: Is this the bottom?
« Reply #4 on: November 21, 2014, 04:21:20 AM »
This is the first time in a long time I have seen BTS rallying very hard while bitcoin isnt going up at all. 

So far so good.   Getting to .117 CNY should confirm that the low is in and we are going higher.
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zerosum

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Re: Is this the bottom?
« Reply #5 on: November 21, 2014, 08:30:43 AM »
And now a laughable wall of about 5 BTC at about ~0.000048 BTC/BTS.

You called the bottom Ander !!!

Offline vlight

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Re: Is this the bottom?
« Reply #6 on: November 21, 2014, 02:46:17 PM »
It would be even better if BTC price has reached the bottom too.  8) I want some upwards price movement for black friday :D

Offline oldman

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Re: Is this the bottom?
« Reply #7 on: November 21, 2014, 02:58:51 PM »
I would suggest that in a market this thin TA should be considered for entertainment value only.

There's a dozen or so folks pushing this market around at will, and perhaps less.

Offline Ander

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Re: Is this the bottom?
« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2014, 07:00:02 PM »
I would suggest that in a market this thin TA should be considered for entertainment value only.

There's a dozen or so folks pushing this market around at will, and perhaps less.

I think TA still works as reliably as ever even with just a few large participants.  Which is to say, only somewhat reliably.  :) 

In fact, if I had listened more to my TA instead of being super long term bullish on bitshares and not ever wanting to sell, I wouldve made more shares by trading.


If that was the bottom, we wont be able to be sure until much higher.  But so far so good. 
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Offline toast

Re: Is this the bottom?
« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2014, 07:04:00 PM »
I knew we hit them bottom from this:  https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=11584.0
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Offline Vizzini

Re: Is this the bottom?
« Reply #10 on: November 21, 2014, 07:18:02 PM »

Never go against a Sicilian when death is on the line.

busygin

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Re: Is this the bottom?
« Reply #11 on: November 21, 2014, 08:09:31 PM »
I like that this time we move up together with Counterparty and Ripple, while BTC and all the trash like LTC, DOGE and DRK is still down comparing to their prices 24h ago. Maybe the market finally realized which projects have some value...

Offline hpenvy

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Re: Is this the bottom?
« Reply #12 on: November 21, 2014, 08:16:19 PM »
I like that this time we move up together with Counterparty and Ripple, while BTC and all the trash like LTC, DOGE and DRK is still down comparing to their prices 24h ago. Maybe the market finally realized which projects have some value...

It will be interesting when Litecoin falls below 100 million for a few straight days.
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Offline Ander

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Re: Is this the bottom?
« Reply #13 on: November 21, 2014, 08:40:21 PM »
I like that this time we move up together with Counterparty and Ripple, while BTC and all the trash like LTC, DOGE and DRK is still down comparing to their prices 24h ago. Maybe the market finally realized which projects have some value...

I had the same reaction when I saw coinmarketcap this morning.  Its as if sanity returned to the market for a day.  Things that should be going up are, at the expense of things whose best days are in the past.


(If it wasnt for the terrible distribution, I definitely wouldve bought some ripple!  It makes me so sad that the devs kept almost all of it). 
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