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Offline Crossover

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« Last Edit: December 01, 2014, 10:25:35 PM by Crossover »

Offline speedy

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Re: Holy smokes new old conspiracy prophecy
« Reply #1 on: December 01, 2014, 11:45:44 PM »
Jim Rickards is forecasting doom again!

All the figures he cites to show how messed up the financial system is make perfect sense, but I just instinctively feel that when the next crisis does come around they will succeed at plugging the holes in the ship by another round of gigantic money printing, and the system will keep chugging along. Worked in 2008, why wont it work next time?

I just cant imagine seeing mass riots and bread lines in the US.

Of course this means that the dollar is doomed, but as long as youve got your assets in real estate and crypto, you should be ok. Am I wrong?

Maybe I should sell my house now and be free of my mortgage whilst the debt is still easy going...

Offline speedy

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Re: Holy smokes new old conspiracy prophecy
« Reply #2 on: December 02, 2014, 12:01:05 AM »
Btw thanks for posting this. There is so much important stuff in this video that the mainstream video never talks about. Jim Rickards is probably the smartest economist around.

Offline Mysto

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Re: Holy smokes new old conspiracy prophecy
« Reply #3 on: December 02, 2014, 12:17:34 AM »
Jim Rickards is forecasting doom again!

All the figures he cites to show how messed up the financial system is make perfect sense, but I just instinctively feel that when the next crisis does come around they will succeed at plugging the holes in the ship by another round of gigantic money printing, and the system will keep chugging along. Worked in 2008, why wont it work next time?
I agree 100%
I think 2015 (maybe 2016) is going to be the new "2008" and the cycle will continue. Sure the cycle is not sustainable in the long run but I think it will be sustainable for a few more decades. In the mean time I'm getting ready to 3x short financial services.

I also agree even if it was an "end of the world dooms day" scenario it would be fantastic for crypto in general (maybe not for bitUSD).

Offline donkeypong

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Re: Holy smokes new old conspiracy prophecy
« Reply #4 on: December 02, 2014, 01:21:34 AM »
I'd give the U.S. (and, by extension, much of the world) economy another 2-3 years of growth before it sputters again. As long as energy is cheap, the house of cards can hold its place for a while longer. Even chronic illnesses can last a long time. The spark that lights that fire will be energy prices, which are low now, and those low prices have been fueling economic growth in many parts of the world.

When you see oil and gas prices start to climb and begin another spike, that will when something breaks again. The entire economy is dependent on cheap energy, and when that is not available, the increased cost adds exponentially to the price of everything else, to the point where many companies cannot make money and many consumers cannot afford to buy much stuff. At that point, you'll get another look at the weakest link in the economy (whatever it is at that point), much as we did in the last two recessions.

Will that be enough pressure to break anything, structurally? That may depend on whether the price inflation is treatable or not. If the U.S. Fed is unable to keep the economy going AND stem inflation, then I think the Fed must tolerate the lesser of those two evils, which is inflation. If the economy does not keep going strong, then the U.S. will not be able to afford its debt payments while having any chance of growth. Also, inflation will water down that debt over time. And that, I think, is how the Fed will get out of this mess. But it will be left with far less power and far fewer tools to affect the direction of the economy. Booms will be stronger and recessions will be depressions.

All in all, it will be a mostly inflationary economy for the foreseeable future (dampened slightly by occasional periods of deflation). BitShares should benefit, as will hard assets such as gold, energy, and other valuable commodities. And an economy based on real goods and valuable services is, at the end of the day, a healthier one than something based on all this derivatives shit that doesn't add value at the end of the day.

Biggest risk: If China somehow fails, it will cause a worldwide depression. A poorly timed natural disaster could be bad news also.
« Last Edit: December 02, 2014, 01:28:14 AM by donkeypong »

Offline Crossover

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Re: Holy smokes new old conspiracy prophecy
« Reply #5 on: December 02, 2014, 07:58:20 AM »
i like mr Rickards prophecies too, he is amazing analysts who speak directly about dangers to public, and maybe that's why such disasters not gonna happen easily ))

Offline Crossover

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Re: Holy smokes new old conspiracy prophecy
« Reply #6 on: December 07, 2014, 12:58:49 AM »
http://thepiratebay.se/torrent/11280788/James_Rickards_-_The_Death_of_Money
loks like usd wont be store of value soon..
and gold wont be "free money" too.
http://youtu.be/r7sBkGLHAjs
« Last Edit: December 07, 2014, 01:21:28 AM by Crossover »

Offline kisa

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Re: Holy smokes new old conspiracy prophecy
« Reply #7 on: December 07, 2014, 12:20:59 PM »
thanks for posting - interesting to watch and he is definitely sharp, knowledgeable and eloquent.

please keep in mind though that his very business model is based on serving FUD into the minds of the certain proportion of population (10-15%) which is genetically susceptible to and feeding on conspiracy theories. This is not to deny the facts about and the risks of the current financial system, emergency plans etc. Still, the point is how much one should equate a certain imaginary low likelihood static path scenario to something inevitable. I bet Rickards gets quite substantial amounts of stable USD for his propaganda ;)
« Last Edit: December 07, 2014, 12:25:37 PM by kisa »

Offline eagleeye

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Re: Holy smokes new old conspiracy prophecy
« Reply #8 on: December 14, 2014, 07:04:46 AM »
I'd give the U.S. (and, by extension, much of the world) economy another 2-3 years of growth before it sputters again. As long as energy is cheap, the house of cards can hold its place for a while longer. Even chronic illnesses can last a long time. The spark that lights that fire will be energy prices, which are low now, and those low prices have been fueling economic growth in many parts of the world.

When you see oil and gas prices start to climb and begin another spike, that will when something breaks again. The entire economy is dependent on cheap energy, and when that is not available, the increased cost adds exponentially to the price of everything else, to the point where many companies cannot make money and many consumers cannot afford to buy much stuff. At that point, you'll get another look at the weakest link in the economy (whatever it is at that point), much as we did in the last two recessions.

Will that be enough pressure to break anything, structurally? That may depend on whether the price inflation is treatable or not. If the U.S. Fed is unable to keep the economy going AND stem inflation, then I think the Fed must tolerate the lesser of those two evils, which is inflation. If the economy does not keep going strong, then the U.S. will not be able to afford its debt payments while having any chance of growth. Also, inflation will water down that debt over time. And that, I think, is how the Fed will get out of this mess. But it will be left with far less power and far fewer tools to affect the direction of the economy. Booms will be stronger and recessions will be depressions.

All in all, it will be a mostly inflationary economy for the foreseeable future (dampened slightly by occasional periods of deflation). BitShares should benefit, as will hard assets such as gold, energy, and other valuable commodities. And an economy based on real goods and valuable services is, at the end of the day, a healthier one than something based on all this derivatives shit that doesn't add value at the end of the day.

Biggest risk: If China somehow fails, it will cause a worldwide depression. A poorly timed natural disaster could be bad news also.

Not necessarily, lower oil prices is actually inflationary as its a tax cut on fixed expenses (driving) and therefore leads people to spend money in other places (stores, restaurants, gadgets) causing those prices to go up.   Lower oil prices -> Higher growth -> more money in peoples pockets -> more spending -> higher demand -> increased demand side inflation.

zerosum

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Re: Holy smokes new old conspiracy prophecy
« Reply #9 on: December 14, 2014, 07:22:27 AM »

Not necessarily, lower oil prices is actually inflationary as its a tax cut on fixed expenses (driving) and therefore leads people to spend money in other places (stores, restaurants, gadgets) causing those prices to go up.   Lower oil prices -> Higher growth -> more money in peoples pockets -> more spending -> higher demand -> increased demand side inflation.

entertaining....
stupid and hilarious but amusing...

Offline bobmaloney

Re: Holy smokes new old conspiracy prophecy
« Reply #10 on: December 14, 2014, 08:07:33 AM »
Now Rickover?

Good to see we have some nukes here.  :D

"The crows seemed to be calling his name, thought Caw."
- Jack Handey (SNL)

Offline anycoin

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Re: Holy smokes new old conspiracy prophecy
« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2015, 02:04:36 AM »
We already have bread lines.......food stamps.....modern version.  The oil will stay low until the Saudis run our drillers out of business and they can go super low from what I hear without taking a real loss.....the real threat to us is
them using a basket of currencies for trading instead of solely ours, though I dont think that is going to end the world for us.  Just my opinion and I dont really disagree with Rikards, he will probably ultimately be correct, I just think it is not going to be a sudden change, that devistates us overnight. I wouldnt sell my house just yet...as if it gets really bad land will ALWAYS be worth money in the US. Maybe I can get lucky and my mortgage company will go under............free house....lol

Offline kenCode

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Re: Holy smokes new old conspiracy prophecy
« Reply #12 on: February 24, 2015, 04:07:03 PM »
College loans, home loans, maybe even car loans. If you owe on the big ticket items, I tend to think the governments will be holding those papers as well, so now, instead of a defunct bank, you'll be owing the government, a debt that cannot be wiped clean thru bankruptcy. Underwater? They could care less.
 
If you're lucky enough to sell your house right now, I'd do it. Get out while the dow is at its highs.
Downsize. Visit a thrift store. Rent an apartment. Avoid fast "food". Try public transit. Make friends with your neighbors. Take your mom out for coffee and pay with bitcoin.
 
No time like the present :)
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Offline superkai64

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Re: Holy smokes new old conspiracy prophecy
« Reply #13 on: February 26, 2015, 10:53:11 AM »
Hail Hydra!
Hail Hydra!

Offline donkeypong

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Re: Holy smokes new old conspiracy prophecy
« Reply #14 on: February 26, 2015, 08:21:50 PM »

Not necessarily, lower oil prices is actually inflationary as its a tax cut on fixed expenses (driving) and therefore leads people to spend money in other places (stores, restaurants, gadgets) causing those prices to go up.   Lower oil prices -> Higher growth -> more money in peoples pockets -> more spending -> higher demand -> increased demand side inflation.

entertaining....
stupid and hilarious but amusing...
Who needs theoretical physics?

 

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