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clout

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Prediction Market Asset Type
« on: December 03, 2014, 01:11:53 AM »

Can we create an additional market asset that allows for binary prediction markets?

Now that we have reduced the price of assets and have a unwinding mechanism for closing long and shorts positions I don't see why we wouldn't implement this feature that allows our platform to act as decentralized fairlay.

I know this isn't a high priority but it seems as though it would be trivial to implement and might pave the way for shorting assets with bitUSD.

I'd personally like to see assets for "1.0" release as well as for the BTS market cap surpassing those of our competitors.

Offline toast

Re: Prediction Market Asset Type
« Reply #1 on: December 03, 2014, 01:33:16 AM »
I have code that implements truthcoin's pm mechanism, whise decision shares can be made transferrable. Probably not something for 1.0 but it's an easy goal for 2.

Honestly calling bitasset-style markets "prediction markets" is a little bit of a stretch.

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Offline arhag

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Re: Prediction Market Asset Type
« Reply #2 on: December 03, 2014, 01:48:29 AM »
Probably not something for 1.0 but it's an easy goal for 2.

Is 2.0 supposed to be the release 6 months after 1.0?

clout

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Re: Prediction Market Asset Type
« Reply #3 on: December 03, 2014, 01:52:15 AM »
I wasn't calling bitasset style markets a pm. And i don't have any technical experience, but it seems to me that the a binary prediction market is easier to implement than both bitassets and truthcoin. With a platform similar to fairlay as opposed to truthcoin you don't need a LMSR market maker or any of the additional features, you just need users to place bids/ask (preferably in USD to create further demand for it) and unwind the market at its close, which can be done with delegates.

Offline islandking

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Re: Prediction Market Asset Type
« Reply #4 on: December 03, 2014, 02:48:27 AM »
I like this idea. Although I think it should be in a sub section of the client, as new users might confuse the assets (USD, GLD etc.) with the prediction markets (gambling). So maybe a separate tab? I think PLAY may be a better fit for this.
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Offline xeroc

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Re: Prediction Market Asset Type
« Reply #5 on: December 03, 2014, 07:25:45 AM »
I have code that implements truthcoin's pm mechanism, whise decision shares can be made transferrable. Probably not something for 1.0 but it's an easy goal for 2.
:o :o

BAM ... another HUGE news ..
I though devs forgot about truthcoin completely .. good to see you "already" have code .. lol
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zerosum

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Re: Prediction Market Asset Type
« Reply #6 on: December 03, 2014, 07:46:32 AM »
I have code that implements truthcoin's pm mechanism, whise decision shares can be made transferrable. Probably not something for 1.0 but it's an easy goal for 2.
:o :o

BAM ... another HUGE news ..
I though devs forgot about truthcoin completely .. good to see you "already" have code .. lol

Come on now, Xeroc... I have said on more than one occasion that I can code the truthcoin's prediction market in the time I spend writing my daughter's high school CS projects...

Well it is an exaggeration, but a very small one... The truth about truthcoin's  pm is .... it is trivial.
« Last Edit: December 03, 2014, 07:49:10 AM by tonyk2 »

Offline xeroc

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Re: Prediction Market Asset Type
« Reply #7 on: December 03, 2014, 07:48:40 AM »
I have code that implements truthcoin's pm mechanism, whise decision shares can be made transferrable. Probably not something for 1.0 but it's an easy goal for 2.
:o :o

BAM ... another HUGE news ..
I though devs forgot about truthcoin completely .. good to see you "already" have code .. lol

Come on now, Xeroc... I have said on more than one occasion that I can code the truthcoin's prediction market in the time I spend writing my daughter's high school CS projects...

Well it is an exaggeration, but a very small one... but the pm of truthcoin is... trivial.
Sure .. putting everything in a matrix and doing a SVD .. but the integration into BTS is ... non-trivial .. that's the reason for my "wow" :)
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zerosum

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Re: Prediction Market Asset Type
« Reply #8 on: December 03, 2014, 07:50:49 AM »
I have code that implements truthcoin's pm mechanism, whise decision shares can be made transferrable. Probably not something for 1.0 but it's an easy goal for 2.
:o :o

BAM ... another HUGE news ..
I though devs forgot about truthcoin completely .. good to see you "already" have code .. lol

Come on now, Xeroc... I have said on more than one occasion that I can code the truthcoin's prediction market in the time I spend writing my daughter's high school CS projects...

Well it is an exaggeration, but a very small one... but the pm of truthcoin is... trivial.
Sure .. putting everything in a matrix and doing a SVD .. but the integration into BTS is ... non-trivial .. that's the reason for my "wow" :)

I do not think toast claims he has done that part...yet.
Have you, Nikolai?

Offline CLains

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Re: Prediction Market Asset Type
« Reply #9 on: December 03, 2014, 09:09:08 AM »
Probably not something for 1.0 but it's an easy goal for 2.

Is 2.0 supposed to be the release 6 months after 1.0?

Launching "2.0" two weeks before Ethereum launches. ;)
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Offline monsterer

Re: Prediction Market Asset Type
« Reply #10 on: December 03, 2014, 10:16:03 AM »
Come on now, Xeroc... I have said on more than one occasion that I can code the truthcoin's prediction market in the time I spend writing my daughter's high school CS projects...

Well it is an exaggeration, but a very small one... The truth about truthcoin's  pm is .... it is trivial.

Are you familiar with the LMSR market maker? That didn't look trivial to me.
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zerosum

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Re: Prediction Market Asset Type
« Reply #11 on: December 04, 2014, 12:41:02 AM »
Come on now, Xeroc... I have said on more than one occasion that I can code the truthcoin's prediction market in the time I spend writing my daughter's high school CS projects...

Well it is an exaggeration, but a very small one... The truth about truthcoin's  pm is .... it is trivial.

Are you familiar with the LMSR market maker? That didn't look trivial to me.

I do not remember any market-makers in the truthcoin's PM. Did I forget about them, or are they  something new?

Offline toast

Re: Prediction Market Asset Type
« Reply #12 on: December 04, 2014, 01:35:17 AM »
I'm not talking about truthcoin's SVD resolution method - we would use data feeds. I'm taking about LMSR.

I didn't say I implemented it, I said I had it. I have it because psztoric paid someone to do it and the code is public. I just happened to formulate the problem for that other dev in a way that makes it straightforward to add to the toolkit.
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Offline monsterer

Re: Prediction Market Asset Type
« Reply #13 on: December 04, 2014, 09:24:11 AM »
I do not remember any market-makers in the truthcoin's PM. Did I forget about them, or are they  something new?

I think its completely fundamental to their blockchain.
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