Author [EN] [ZH] [ES] [PT] [IT] [DE] [FR] [NL] [TR] [SR] [AR] [RU] [EN] [ZH] [ES] [PT] [IT] [DE] [FR] [NL] [TR] [SR] [AR] [RU] [EN] [ZH] [ES] [PT] [IT] [DE] [FR] [NL] [TR] [SR] [AR] [RU] Topic: Russia's economy crashing; Wall Street is betting on Russia, Venezuela defaults  (Read 392 times)

Offline donkeypong

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2331
    • View Profile

Wall Street betting on defaults. Economic sanctions and falling energy prices are hurting two of America's (not so favorite) friends:

http://money.cnn.com/2014/12/12/investing/venezuela-russia-default-wall-street/index.html?iid=EL






« Last Edit: December 16, 2014, 05:25:24 AM by donkeypong »

Offline onceuponatime

The war is on. Just hasn't reached the shooting stage yet.

Offline eagleeye

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 931
    • View Profile
This is the economic opportunity of a lifetime, Russia is fine the government has no debt and $400 - $500 billion dollars.  Interest rates are 17% meaning your being paid like what it was in 1980 in the US when it looked the same way and we thought we were going to war with Iran or Russia.

If Bytemaster Dan wants to find a market quick make a Russian bond market feed you will get activity if you can figure out how to peg it, you probably have 1 - 6 months.

Offline onceuponatime

The rate has been jacked up to 17% to prevent people, companies, and banks from borrowing roubles from the central bank and using them to buy dollars (thus further strengthening the dollar and weakening the rouble.

Offline donkeypong

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2331
    • View Profile
This is the economic opportunity of a lifetime, Russia is fine the government has no debt and $400 - $500 billion dollars.  Interest rates are 17% meaning your being paid like what it was in 1980 in the US when it looked the same way and we thought we were going to war with Iran or Russia.

If Bytemaster Dan wants to find a market quick make a Russian bond market feed you will get activity if you can figure out how to peg it, you probably have 1 - 6 months.

It's an intriguing thought. I'm not convinced Russia is the place to put money, though. Things could get worse before they get better. And if that happens, it could create instability and threaten the government. By "Russia is fine", you mean the government's financial situation is fine, with no debt and cash on hand. But they will burn through this. More important is what the private sector and citizens will do. Remember, Russia's current government serves at the pleasure of its economic elite, and a lot of those oligarchs are watching their money go up in smoke right now (those who haven't already cashed out). The government there can't control the oil prices, but it can control the policies that put them on economic sanction. Would the government's real bosses demand a change at some point? If there's political instability on the way, then putting your money on Russia is an opportunity and a big risk.

Eventually, energy prices will go much, much higher. Higher than we've ever seen, since demand will climb and we'll burn through remaining supplies that much more quickly. But that change could still be a few years away. The era of cheap energy is back for a little while.

Offline eagleeye

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 931
    • View Profile
This is the economic opportunity of a lifetime, Russia is fine the government has no debt and $400 - $500 billion dollars.  Interest rates are 17% meaning your being paid like what it was in 1980 in the US when it looked the same way and we thought we were going to war with Iran or Russia.

If Bytemaster Dan wants to find a market quick make a Russian bond market feed you will get activity if you can figure out how to peg it, you probably have 1 - 6 months.

It's an intriguing thought. I'm not convinced Russia is the place to put money, though. Things could get worse before they get better. And if that happens, it could create instability and threaten the government. By "Russia is fine", you mean the government's financial situation is fine, with no debt and cash on hand. But they will burn through this. More important is what the private sector and citizens will do. Remember, Russia's current government serves at the pleasure of its economic elite, and a lot of those oligarchs are watching their money go up in smoke right now (those who haven't already cashed out). The government there can't control the oil prices, but it can control the policies that put them on economic sanction. Would the government's real bosses demand a change at some point? If there's political instability on the way, then putting your money on Russia is an opportunity and a big risk.

Eventually, energy prices will go much, much higher. Higher than we've ever seen, since demand will climb and we'll burn through remaining supplies that much more quickly. But that change could still be a few years away. The era of cheap energy is back for a little while.

By raising interest rates it will defend the currency on its own.

 

Google+