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zerosum

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Recently a new trend in public opinion is that the price of BTS is what it is (low for the general consensus), in significant part somehow due to bad PR moves and blinders. Subsequently the logic is that if we fix the PR we will end up with higher price (or not big sudden price drops for the very least)Well I disagree with that notion. I even strongly disagree with the proposed improvements to the PR – namely total silence, but that is not what this thread is about. I firmly believe that the price reflects what is in the actual product and not how it was presented. In other words what was done (or not done), included or not included in the actual product (software in this case) and NOT how it was presented. Call me stupid, but that’s what I believe.


I want to skim over several factors far more important to the current BTS price. Those are mostly things of the past, mistakes already made and too late to fix. The only value in mentioning them is just a reminder to try and avoid them in the future, if we can.

1. Lack of focus and even to the extent of not believing enough in the fact that the core product is great (should I say revolutionary). bitAssets are the next big thing on the great path that BTC started. But we did not focus on them – we wondered to the great benefits that VOTE can bring losing important time and resources on it. BitAssets were not enough – we needed to have Titan – that added a great complexity slowed down development. Titan and the whole BTC incompatibility lead to very reserved very slow adoption by existing players in the crypto ecosystem (exchanges and off/on ramps being the most painful examples).
I know a big deal of development has been done from October till now… but if you look on the surface, if you just open the main wallet and want to see what has changed from user perspective – not so much – slightly less crash-y client plus maybe almost undocumented escrow and multisig. (Light and web wallet see progress in that time frame – that is true). Months and months spent on battling with our own ‘improvements’ that we unnecessary added to our main product –> bitAssets and exchange.
2. BTS added a great new innovation in the meantime – the ability of a DAC to finance itself! Another revolutionary step.
But man did we choose the most ridiculously stupid way of doing it… Instead of clearly defined projects or workers doing work for the BTS DAC – potentially with clearly defined budgets (read big enough at current market cap, and not excessive at large market caps) and clear separated voting for such project, we decided to go the path of least resistance and twist the delegates system to achieve that. I know that pretty much everybody voiced their opinion in favor of doing it the right way. But the hacky way was chosen (for now) and we are paying for that with underpaid developers or grasping for ways to fix this in some other ways.



After that I want to get to a major contributor to the current price situation. Implementation ‘detail’ that is largely ignored by most everybody. But I do find the issue very significant.

[Short version] The current 300% collateral (200% from shorts) puts the shorts in unnecessarily unfair position. This is a major, major contributing factor for the thin markets on the BTS exchange even now, but will be simply divesting for the future. First the 200% collateral leads to the BTS bulls and market liquidity providers (the shorts) to taking short position with amounts of capital (BTS) not exceeding somewhere between 33% and less than 50% of what they would have done in a just collateral system. And that reduction is simply to balance the unfairness of the system and i.e. to put their max losses in line with their max winnings. Second it reduces the interest rate the shorts are ready to provide. As on average  they should be receiving interest not paying one when 200% collateral is required by them. Third  - even as we speak the designed and expected total collateral in BTS system is reached or very close to being reached. If we assume that long term 25-33% of all BTS will be held in collateral [1*], the de facto provided collateral by BTS bulls has reached and/or exceeded that level. What it means that even the most bullish BTS holders will not be willing to provide much more new shorts (liquidity) simply in order to keep their average return expectation at 0. This no good news in a market that is already thing even in its most active markets and non-existent even in the most basic cross markets (bitUSD/bitCNY, bitUSD/bitSilver etc.)
* * * *
The issue is even worse because BTS bulls tend to be interested in the general health and well-being of the BTS ecosystem. For that reason they are willing voters in general. The inability of the shorts to vote with their collateral leads to not voting to the full extent of their stake and or providing less liquidity to the market. A definite lose-lose situation for BTS.
[/Short version]




[1*] 14% of available [2*] BTS are already directly held in collateral. As only 33%-50% of the total amount of exposure that any reasonably acting bull should keep in actual collateral, the amount of BTS dedicated to shorting currently is 28% to 42% of all available BTS.
[2*] Available BTS = total claimed from genesis + total BTS from the merger that are already vested as of today + newly issued BTS by dilution –  fees destroyed ;
[3*] In order to prevent losing more by any 2x price decrease of BTS than 2x price increase of BTS the shorts can put less than 100% of their BTS in any short position. The max that they can put in shorting if they expect that the price can go down by more than 2x is less than 50% (and less than 33% in they include the possibility for the price to go down 4x before going up from the base (starting price).  For details on the math you might find this post from arhag useful : https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=14622.msg190144#msg190144

This post got bigger than I expected and I made just a short summary of my main point… :) I guess I will have to extend on this later on…stay tuned.

Quote
Can you add a "long story short , "  sentence ?  :P
Sure:
Long story short - 200% collateral from shorts is a destructive force for the BTS market. The sooner we realize it and get rid of it the better. Why I believe this to be the case - you should read the long version above.  :) At least between the short version tags!
« Last Edit: March 07, 2015, 05:36:53 PM by tonyk2 »

Offline btswildpig

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #1 on: March 07, 2015, 05:24:06 PM »
Can you add a "long story short , "  sentence ?  :P
这个是私人账号,表达的一切言论均不代表任何团队和任何人。This is my personal account , anything I said with this account will be my opinion alone and has nothing to do with any group.

zerosum

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #2 on: March 07, 2015, 05:28:18 PM »
Can you add a "long story short , "  sentence ?  :P
Sure:
Added.
« Last Edit: March 07, 2015, 05:31:58 PM by tonyk2 »

Offline btswildpig

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #3 on: March 07, 2015, 05:39:57 PM »
I asked around , some people don't mind the current rule , but they simply don't want to short because they're afraid that their short order would get lost due to some bugs .

They would want to short if this issue is solved .
这个是私人账号,表达的一切言论均不代表任何团队和任何人。This is my personal account , anything I said with this account will be my opinion alone and has nothing to do with any group.

Offline xeroc

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #4 on: March 07, 2015, 05:59:33 PM »
I asked around , some people don't mind the current rule , but they simply don't want to short because they're afraid that their short order would get lost due to some bugs .

They would want to short if this issue is solved .
Hu? There is no such issue .. shorting works just fine ..
Give BitShares a try! Use the http://testnet.bitshares.eu provided by http://bitshares.eu powered by ChainSquad GmbH

Offline btswildpig

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #5 on: March 07, 2015, 06:09:53 PM »
I asked around , some people don't mind the current rule , but they simply don't want to short because they're afraid that their short order would get lost due to some bugs .

They would want to short if this issue is solved .
Hu? There is no such issue .. shorting works just fine ..

happens some time . need to regenerate xxxxxx key
这个是私人账号,表达的一切言论均不代表任何团队和任何人。This is my personal account , anything I said with this account will be my opinion alone and has nothing to do with any group.

Offline abit

Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #6 on: March 07, 2015, 06:16:23 PM »
I asked around , some people don't mind the current rule , but they simply don't want to short because they're afraid that their short order would get lost due to some bugs .

They would want to short if this issue is solved .
Hu? There is no such issue .. shorting works just fine ..
This one: https://github.com/BitShares/bitshares/issues/1385
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Offline xeroc

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #7 on: March 07, 2015, 10:39:29 PM »
I asked around , some people don't mind the current rule , but they simply don't want to short because they're afraid that their short order would get lost due to some bugs .

They would want to short if this issue is solved .
Hu? There is no such issue .. shorting works just fine ..
This one: https://github.com/BitShares/bitshares/issues/1385
Thx for sharing .. havent read about it yet ..
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Offline liondani

Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #8 on: March 08, 2015, 02:02:30 AM »
thanks tonyk2 for your constructive criticism ... at least I hope the core Dev's can see  that too...

edit:
PS personally I think we will skyrocket when we have a better gui for our exchange, something similar to what popular centralized exchanges have right now, and of course more stable and and with less bugs....
« Last Edit: March 08, 2015, 02:18:47 AM by liondani »
  https://bitshares.OPENLEDGER.info/?r=GREECE  | You are in Control | BUY | SELL | SHORT | SWAP | LOAN | TRADE |  

Offline Samupaha

Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #9 on: March 08, 2015, 05:45:08 AM »
I just found BitShares a little while ago and have been skimming through the forum to learn more. It seems that BitShares is really something totally new that nobody else has done before, so only way to go forward is through trial and error. It is always easy to say afterwards that "we should have done things differently" but at the time of making those decisions, it's impossible to know what is the optimal way.

I'm actually quite impressed how well the developers have handled difficult decisions. Of course it will always give some distress to investors when plans are changed on the fly, but in the long run it is propably the only way to make sure that the end product will be great.

Offline xiahui135

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Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #10 on: March 08, 2015, 06:06:05 AM »
What we should do is just tools. People will use it to develop the ecosystem.
We need to concentrate on the key tools: wallets, gateways, decentralized exchange.

Price of bts is not undervalued, it is the right place it is worth now after considering the tools now and future potential.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2015, 06:09:55 AM by xiahui135 »

Offline karnal

Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #11 on: March 08, 2015, 10:19:48 AM »
I am fairly new here, from my (rather limited) perspective it went a bit downhill with the whole PR blunder and dev silence on the forums.

How can that be a good thing? IMO there needs to exist some back and forth between users and developers, otherwise it seems to me that the devs live in their nice cathedral in the clouds away from the userbase, and the users don't know very well what the devs are up to and even if the users' opinions matter at all.


It seems unecessarily elitist to me that the developers no longer seem to post on the forums. This is a time where we all need to push together (discuss, brainstorm, develop the ecosystem, etc), not get divided in two camps.. the nobility and the lowly peasants.

Offline Riverhead

Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #12 on: March 08, 2015, 10:45:10 AM »
I just found BitShares a little while ago and have been skimming through the forum to learn more. It seems that BitShares is really something totally new that nobody else has done before, so only way to go forward is through trial and error. It is always easy to say afterwards that "we should have done things differently" but at the time of making those decisions, it's impossible to know what is the optimal way.

I'm actually quite impressed how well the developers have handled difficult decisions. Of course it will always give some distress to investors when plans are changed on the fly, but in the long run it is propably the only way to make sure that the end product will be great.


Welcome! In my humble opinion you nailed it.


 +5%

Offline bitshare007777

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #13 on: March 08, 2015, 11:51:15 AM »
 
What we should do is just tools. People will use it to develop the ecosystem.
We need to concentrate on the key tools: wallets, gateways, decentralized exchange.

Price of bts is not undervalued, it is the right place it is worth now after considering the tools now and future potential.
+5%

Offline speedy

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #14 on: March 08, 2015, 11:56:04 AM »
I am fairly new here, from my (rather limited) perspective it went a bit downhill with the whole PR blunder and dev silence on the forums.

How can that be a good thing? IMO there needs to exist some back and forth between users and developers, otherwise it seems to me that the devs live in their nice cathedral in the clouds away from the userbase, and the users don't know very well what the devs are up to and even if the users' opinions matter at all.

+1000%

The only evidence we have at the moment that anything is being done is the github logs.

I remember getting into debates on reddit about how the BitShares developers are really transparent because theyre always on the forums answering questions. This is no longer the case.

 

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