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Offline monsterer

Injecting some fun into bitshares - new markets
« on: April 14, 2015, 08:22:55 AM »

I've been thinking about creating some fun, novel market pegged assets, and I'd like your feedback:

Brownian motion

This is a random walk, priced between 0 and 1 BTS. This would allow gamblers to use the bitshares wallet without modification to bet their BTS on random chance using the existing market mechanisms.

London temperature

Feed price tracks the temperature in London in real time, again priced in BTS (fahrenheit so we don't have less than 0 - could use kelvin, of course) . At first glance this seems absurd because it is largely predictable, but I think this could lead to some very interesting behaviours.

Bitcoin hash rate

Feed price tracks the bitcoin hash rate

Games100 index

Tracks computer game sales for the top 100 computer games

Film100 index

Tracks film sales for the top 100 grossing films

The last couple might be hard to get decent data from, but the first lot should be a breeze. I'd love to hear what you think about this?

Cheers, Paul.
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Offline emski

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Re: Injecting some fun into bitshares - new markets
« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2015, 08:32:13 AM »
I'm Ignoring the fact that these suggestions use the BTS blockchain in a completely different way than it was designed.
I like the idea for BTC hash rate. It might be fun to play with such an asset.
Bitcoin hash rate is verifiable and hard to manipulate.
For Brownian motion we need decent random number(s).
For the rest:
London temperature -> who will measure it? It will depend on an external source.
Game sales and Film grossing data rely on an external source.

Offline xeroc

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Re: Injecting some fun into bitshares - new markets
« Reply #2 on: April 14, 2015, 08:37:49 AM »
+5% for Bitcoin hash rate
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Re: Injecting some fun into bitshares - new markets
« Reply #3 on: April 14, 2015, 08:39:43 AM »
 +5%

I'm missing some esports stuff. Like Challenger ELO grossing (League of Legends) - something an outsider would find interesting to check/buy
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Offline ebit

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Re: Injecting some fun into bitshares - new markets
« Reply #4 on: April 14, 2015, 08:43:44 AM »
 +5%

Temperature Asset can be joined IOT.
I think @kenCode will love.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2015, 08:52:34 AM by ebit »

Offline monsterer

Re: Injecting some fun into bitshares - new markets
« Reply #5 on: April 14, 2015, 08:46:05 AM »
For Brownian motion we need decent random number(s).

Not in my estimation. Each feed provider uses the same algorithm which generates a slightly different Brownian motion (but not wildly different). The feed price is actually an average anyway, so any attacker would need to predict the next random number from each feed provider in order to predict the next feed price. Even if they were able to do this, it doesn't matter so much anyway, because an attacker would need to predict future feed prices in order to make a profit, not just the current one, since they must then trade on the market.

Quote
London temperature -> who will measure it? It will depend on an external source.

By nature all feed prices depend on external sources - I don't see any problem?
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Offline ebit

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Re: Injecting some fun into bitshares - new markets
« Reply #6 on: April 14, 2015, 08:54:02 AM »
Quote
London temperature -> who will measure it? It will depend on an external source.
By nature all feed prices depend on external sources - I don't see any problem?
IOT +5%

Offline speedy

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Re: Injecting some fun into bitshares - new markets
« Reply #7 on: April 14, 2015, 10:49:27 AM »
Look how much fun these guys are having:

http://maryland.247sports.com/Board/56/Contents/2015-Celebrity-Death-Pool-Game-Thread-34083066

Not sure if that would fit into the current price feed mechanism, maybe when prediction markets are working :P

Offline jcrubino

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Re: Injecting some fun into bitshares - new markets
« Reply #8 on: April 14, 2015, 10:52:06 AM »
I like the film index and it is doable.

I spent a couple years of my free time digging deeply into motion picture industry numbers, and industry data (often questionable) usually comes from only a few reputable sources.  Box office opening weekend is a key metric for the industry as it can make or break new talent in the industry.  Can Bitshares handle discrete event prediction markets?  Huge opportunities for sporting events.




Offline monsterer

Re: Injecting some fun into bitshares - new markets
« Reply #9 on: April 14, 2015, 10:57:28 AM »
I like the film index and it is doable.

I spent a couple years of my free time digging deeply into motion picture industry numbers, and industry data (often questionable) usually comes from only a few reputable sources.  Box office opening weekend is a key metric for the industry as it can make or break new talent in the industry.  Can Bitshares handle discrete event prediction markets?  Huge opportunities for sporting events.

Not currently, which is why I was thinking of an index, because it is continuous. Being able to invest in 'films' or 'games' in general is novel (I think) and might be quite attractive to non crypto people.
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Offline CLains

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Re: Injecting some fun into bitshares - new markets
« Reply #10 on: April 14, 2015, 11:42:04 AM »
anything that gets us media coverage is great, and any newsoutlet that targets a relevant demographic even better  +5%

bitreserve did this in a very clever way,

https://www.google.no/search?q=bitreserve+graph&rlz=1C1MSIM_enNO584NO584&oq=bitreserve+graph&aqs=chrome..69i57.2448j0j7&sourceid=chrome&es_sm=122&ie=UTF-8#newwindow=1&q=bitreserve+tool
« Last Edit: April 14, 2015, 11:44:39 AM by CLains »
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Offline Bitcoinfan

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Re: Injecting some fun into bitshares - new markets
« Reply #11 on: April 14, 2015, 02:11:08 PM »
Not really excited about the list here.  How about the Heng Seng index to bring in the Chinese investors?  This may be out of bounds of SEC regulations

Offline svk

Re: Injecting some fun into bitshares - new markets
« Reply #12 on: April 14, 2015, 02:36:33 PM »
Not really excited about the list here.  How about the Heng Seng index to bring in the Chinese investors?  This may be out of bounds of SEC regulations

Would be great, but who wants to pay 500k BTS to register HSI? (Same goes for any stock/index btw, I'm not picking on Heng Seng)
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Offline Bitcoinfan

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Re: Injecting some fun into bitshares - new markets
« Reply #13 on: April 14, 2015, 02:41:46 PM »
Not really excited about the list here.  How about the Heng Seng index to bring in the Chinese investors?  This may be out of bounds of SEC regulations

Would be great, but who wants to pay 500k BTS to register HSI? (Same goes for any stock/index btw, I'm not picking on Heng Seng)

Let's crowd fund it.  Its roughly $2200 at todays prices.  If everyone puts in a 3 bucks, we can do it with 750 members.  You can set this up on your site.
« Last Edit: April 14, 2015, 02:44:49 PM by Bitcoinfan »

Offline monsterer

Re: Injecting some fun into bitshares - new markets
« Reply #14 on: April 14, 2015, 03:29:00 PM »
Not really excited about the list here.  How about the Heng Seng index to bring in the Chinese investors?  This may be out of bounds of SEC regulations

I challenge you to find a free, real time feed for any financial index which doesn't need to be scraped.
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