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Offline monsterer

Geometric brownian motion feed price
« on: April 14, 2015, 01:54:45 PM »

The goal is to modify a price feed script to provide a geometric brownian motion feed price. This will allow gamblers to bet by trading in a market for this feed.

http://www.thetaris.com/wiki/Geometric_Brownian_Motion

Delegates who provide feeds all do so at different intervals. The blockchain feed price for a pegged asset is an average over all delegate feeds.

If we use an iterative formula for geometric brownian motion (with constant volatility) using a starting price which is the current feed price, will the final resulting feed actually be fit for purpose after all the averaging over different simulation intervals?

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Online svk

Re: Geometric brownian motion feed price
« Reply #1 on: April 14, 2015, 02:04:01 PM »
The goal is to modify a price feed script to provide a geometric brownian motion feed price. This will allow gamblers to bet by trading in a market for this feed.

http://www.thetaris.com/wiki/Geometric_Brownian_Motion

Delegates who provide feeds all do so at different intervals. The blockchain feed price for a pegged asset is an average over all delegate feeds.

If we use an iterative formula for geometric brownian motion (with constant volatility) using a starting price which is the current feed price, will the final resulting feed actually be fit for purpose after all the averaging over different simulation intervals?

Don't have any input on this other than a correction: the blockchain feed price is the median value, not the average.
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Offline luckybit

Re: Geometric brownian motion feed price
« Reply #2 on: April 14, 2015, 06:43:22 PM »
What is the utility of this?
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Offline monsterer

Re: Geometric brownian motion feed price
« Reply #3 on: April 14, 2015, 07:56:47 PM »
What is the utility of this?

Give those who want to gamble on our blockchain something to do with very little effort.
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Offline luckybit

Re: Geometric brownian motion feed price
« Reply #4 on: April 15, 2015, 09:22:33 AM »
What is the utility of this?

Give those who want to gamble on our blockchain something to do with very little effort.

Not a good idea. Use the Playshares chain for gambling. Stick to serious stuff for a serious chain or you open Bitshares up to being declared a gambling platform.
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Offline monsterer

Re: Geometric brownian motion feed price
« Reply #5 on: April 15, 2015, 10:15:13 AM »
Not a good idea. Use the Playshares chain for gambling. Stick to serious stuff for a serious chain or you open Bitshares up to being declared a gambling platform.

I disagree. All publicity is good publicity and increasing retention is also good.

Besides, this idea has merit beyond gambling - it is interesting from a different point of view, in that it would create the first market in the world where there can be no insider trading.
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Offline xeroc

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Re: Geometric brownian motion feed price
« Reply #6 on: April 15, 2015, 10:21:07 AM »
Lets couple devshares and bitshares and do these fun stuff in devshares .. its cheaper there too
...
and it would help define a price for dvs ..
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Offline monsterer

Re: Geometric brownian motion feed price
« Reply #7 on: April 15, 2015, 10:22:41 AM »
Lets couple devshares and bitshares and do these fun stuff in devshares .. its cheaper there too
...
and it would help define a price for dvs ..

DVS has 0 value by design, I can't see this making any sense. That would be the same as trading against testnet BTC on an exchange :)
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Offline xeroc

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Re: Geometric brownian motion feed price
« Reply #8 on: April 15, 2015, 10:52:14 AM »
Lets couple devshares and bitshares and do these fun stuff in devshares .. its cheaper there too
...
and it would help define a price for dvs ..

DVS has 0 value by design, I can't see this making any sense. That would be the same as trading against testnet BTC on an exchange :)
http://bytemaster.bitshares.org/update/2014/12/19/The-Value-of-DevShares/
DevShare Network is NOT test network!!
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Offline Empirical1.2

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Re: Geometric brownian motion feed price
« Reply #9 on: April 15, 2015, 04:44:53 PM »
Not a good idea. Use the Playshares chain for gambling. Stick to serious stuff for a serious chain or you open Bitshares up to being declared a gambling platform.

I disagree. All publicity is good publicity and increasing retention is also good.

Besides, this idea has merit beyond gambling - it is interesting from a different point of view, in that it would create the first market in the world where there can be no insider trading.

I'm not sure how popular it will be, but I like the idea.

Anything that gives BTS an additional use/market without requiring a lot of development time, I'm in favour of.

It would be cool if it was only accessible with BitAssets so if you wanted to play you would have to acquire BitAssets, thereby increasing BitAssets in circulation. (Most would keep their gains in the BitAsset too.)
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