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Offline Ander

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It could have been worse. A tale of hope for Bitshares.
« on: May 07, 2015, 06:25:46 PM »

It’s true that the past few months have sucked for BTS, at least if you are looking at the price.  But while the price is painful to see currently, BTS remains fully alive, with a working dev team and still has big potential and plans for the future (even if we all wish those things would’ve come sooner).

Not so for every other project!  Good tech like BTS survives while pump and dumps fail completely.


I remember when I first bought my very first BTS.  I bought a bit on bter, and all the people in the trollbox were hyping some coin called NXTTY.  "The wallet is so beautiful!" they said.  It was some messaging app asset based on NXT. 

At its peak, NXTTY was valued at over $3.5 Million, according to coinmarketcap.  At its peak price in satoshis it was over 1400 sats. 

http://coinmarketcap.com/assets/nxttycoin/

Over the past few days, millions of NXTTY were sold at a price of 6 satoshis.  The market cap is now $16k. 

That’s a decline of over 99.5%.  rekt!

I remember when some guy was hyping the upcoming release of the messaging app (which came out after the coin did).  I bought 1 BTC worth of NXTTY about a week before the app came out, at 700 satoshis.  I figured "sell the news is a thing.  It will probably happen; I should sell the hype right before it comes out".  I sold for a 20% gain at 850 sats, the day before it released.  I was annoyed for a few hours when it went higher to 995, and then, that was it.  6 months later a position that would’ve taken 5 figures of USD to accumulate at the peak is being dumped for less than 1 BTC. 


Bitshares is a survivor, even though we've taken our lumps.  The path down was long and hard fought, as we all kept buying and supporting the price.  We didn’t let it simply crash and die.  Most of us true believers remain, and are still buying; only the fair weather 'investors' left.


What was the largest %age drop in the bitcoin price ever, from peak to low?  About 94%, in 2011, from just over $30, to about $2.  I think it hit $1.94 at one point, and that was the low.

What is the %age drop in the bitshares price, from peak to low?  About 94%.  From just over .3 CNY to about .02.  We hit .0198 at one point.  Maybe we'll hit .0194. ;)

Bitshares won’t die; we'll just buy our cheap shares now.  We'll all have far more than we ever would have if Bitshares had maintained its 2-3 cent price from 6 months ago.


Of course, Bitcoin rallied to 133x that price 16 months later when the bear ended and adoption increased, slowly at first but with a ferocity at the end that no one could've imagined.


To those of us buying now, always remember:  If BTS goes up 50%, it’s still dirt cheap.  It was .03 CNY a couple week ago, and that price felt insane, remember?  If it goes up 150%, it’s still cheap.  The IPO price was around .8 cents on average, based on the value of BTC donations to angelshares.  Hasn’t so much happened since Dan started taking donations for Protoshares back then?  If it goes up 500%, it’s still cheap.  It would be worth 2 cents, and don't you all remember how 2 cents felt so cheap when we were buying there last year?  Do you get what I am saying?  BTS could go up a huge amount and it would still be cheap.

It’s sad that we couldn’t hold those levels.  It’s sad that the bitcoin bear market just wouldn’t end, and BTC crashed to 150.  It’s sad that there were market bugs that hurt adoption, and so on. 

But that all happened.  And the amount to which you will profit from the future of bitshares is now pretty much just related to the amount you buy NOW. 

You can get about 70000 BTS for a bitcoin.   What?  The hell?

Whatever amount you put into Bitshares before, when you were happy about the project, just try to put that same amount in again, if you can.  If you get 5 times as much BTS now as when you bought before, you drive your average cost much closer to the current price than your original.  If you bought X BTC worth at 5000 sats, and X BTC worth here at 1400, your average cost becomes around 2200.  Yeah, that’s not too much of a rally needed and then you are at breakeven again, and feeling fine about Bitshares again.  The magic of dollar cost averaging works in your favor if prices decline and then rebound!

Even if you don’t have enough to do that, just a little bit still helps a lot when you are looking at such large price differences. 

Do you think Bitshares is dying?  At this price its either dying, or you should really be buying hard.  How many people are working on Bitshares, including all the side projects?  A lot.  We have several dozen paid delegates, most of which are either devs or are people we can see developing Bitshares related projects.  More are working on stuff but don’t have delegates, or their delegates aren’t yet elected. 

How many other projects have this many people working on them?  Bitcoin, Ripple, maybe Ethereum?  Maybe NXT with all its assets, but I think we still have more.  Probably only Bitcoin and Ripple actually have more at the present time, which they should given the massive disparity in market cap.  How can BTS fall much further, when it has already fallen through coins that have far less developers and less going on in them?  We are in a serious bear bubble right now due to the market order matching bug providing a big incentive for whales to drive down the BTS price and then profit off of converting their bitUSD back into BTS, ruining the shorts while the market bug doesn’t let them cover correctly.  But this bear bubble will end when its underlying causes are fixed, and then what?  A quick snap back up towards the IPO price would be reasonable, even without any big announcements from the core dev team. 

People valued the idea of Protoshares at 25 million.  People value 18 months of development into Protoshares at 8 million.  Go figure.   Yeah there are bugs.   It’s still a lot more than it was 18 months ago.   When you aren’t dealing with large companies making a consistent profit, markets are more about emotion than accurately valuing things.   

Go buy some freaking Bitshares. 

Don’t dink around and waste time, just go buy some freaking Bitshares.

Don’t only go buy some bitUSD and think “I’m putting my money into the ecosystem”.  When BTS recovers you won’t gain anything.  Just go buy some freaking Bitshares.

Don’t go send your money to moonstone and think “Hey, hopefully in 5 years I’ll get 10% bonus extra BTS!  Maybe…if people actually elect delegates for such a purpose (guess what, only those who invested in it are going to like that dilution).  If Bitshares doesn’t change in such a way that delegates are paid in bitAssets instead and moonstone can’t manage to raise the BTS to pay you back in BTS.  And so on).  Nope, just go buy some freaking Bitshares!   

(An aside:  I love moonstone like the rest of us, but I am not at all sure that they will be able to pay it back, even if they want to and 100% fully intend to.  I can easily imagine a scenario where BTS takes off, dilution rules change, and moonstone is forced to say “Hey guys, um, there is no way for us to raise the tens of millions of BTS needed to pay everyone back under the new delegate rules and the higher prices.  So we are going to pay you 15% gain as promised but in bitUSD instead”.  Nice 15% gain you will be looking at when BTS goes up by a factor of 100.  I don’t doubt their intentions at all and I know they want to pay everyone back with a bonus, I just think it’s possible that reality will not allow them to do so.).

Just buy some freaking BTS!  (Then after you do that, take the BTS off the exchange you bought it on, into your personal wallet, so you don’t get Btered!  Or use metaexchange, or blocktrades, or shapeshift).

Just buy some freaking BTS, put it in your own freaking wallet, and don’t sell it early when it goes up only 50%.  If it goes up 500% I will still consider it relatively cheap!


The price is currently .0203 CNY.  Now, let’s have someone bump this thread in 2017, and see if you should’ve just bought some freaking Bitshares!
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Offline clayop

Re: It could have been worse. A tale of hope for Bitshares.
« Reply #2 on: May 07, 2015, 06:36:08 PM »
Still cheap regardless of any pump!  +5%
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Online nomoreheroes7

Re: It could have been worse. A tale of hope for Bitshares.
« Reply #4 on: May 07, 2015, 07:08:12 PM »
Nxt, Doge, and BTS all have ATH's around $90 million market cap, and all three are trading between $8 - $9 million cap today. At least we're not alone.  :P

A turnaround can happen in the snap of the fingers. Best to be well-prepared and HODLing when that time comes.  :D

Offline testz

Re: It could have been worse. A tale of hope for Bitshares.
« Reply #5 on: May 07, 2015, 07:40:17 PM »
I completely agree with you  +5%  :)

jakub

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Re: It could have been worse. A tale of hope for Bitshares.
« Reply #6 on: May 07, 2015, 07:42:22 PM »
Don’t go send your money to moonstone and think “Hey, hopefully in 5 years I’ll get 10% bonus extra BTS!"

But if the price does stop falling.. moonstone might be the main reason for that.
I admit that moonstone crowdfunding has created quite a dilemma. I would say this:
  • if you believe the current wallet is the main bottle-neck blocking BitShares success - then support BTS via moonstone.
  • if you believe other factors matter more than the quality of the GUI - then ignore moonstone and buy BTS directly.
For me the user experience of the current wallet is a nightmare so I choose to go the moonstone way.
If their new wallet works smoothly as the mockups suggest then they've done an amazing job and their new wallet might open a new era for BitShares and finally stop the price from falling.
« Last Edit: May 07, 2015, 07:51:44 PM by jakub »

Online lovejoy

Re: It could have been worse. A tale of hope for Bitshares.
« Reply #7 on: May 07, 2015, 07:42:38 PM »
 +5%

Yes, all the way.

I've gone back to hustling for that fiat USD just so I can buy more bts, average down... and put food on the table. ;)

thanks for the 10,000 foot view Ander

Just buy some freaking BTS!

Offline kenCode

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Re: It could have been worse. A tale of hope for Bitshares.
« Reply #8 on: May 07, 2015, 07:45:12 PM »
Go buy some freaking Bitshares. 
Don’t dink around and waste time, just go buy some freaking Bitshares.

EXACTLY! +5% +5% +5%
 
I read every word of this one, nice job Ander!!!!!! :)
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Offline xeroc

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Re: It could have been worse. A tale of hope for Bitshares.
« Reply #9 on: May 07, 2015, 08:19:55 PM »
+5% .. can you guys stop pumping the price .. pls :D
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jakub

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Re: It could have been worse. A tale of hope for Bitshares.
« Reply #10 on: May 07, 2015, 08:25:59 PM »
Which situation looks more healthy?
- the price stops falling because the existing BTS holders buy even more
- the price drops a bit further but then stops falling because finally the marketing team has a product that is useable and new users start buying into BTS

Supporting moonstone instead of BTS directly can indeed push the price down further. But does it really matter if we are 95% underwater or 110%? For me it does not. And neither does the 15% bonus offered by moonstone. For me it's more like a strategic decision and the only criterion is this: what do I think is most needed for BitShares at this moment to increase the adoption?

Therefore I see it this way: first the adoption and then the price will follow, not the other way round.

Offline Ander

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Re: It could have been worse. A tale of hope for Bitshares.
« Reply #11 on: May 08, 2015, 03:43:33 AM »
We're going up. ;)

Do not sell.  Do not sell even a single BTS back to the bears.  Let them taste the fear of missing out.  Let them suffer from knowing they sold the low.
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sumantso

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Re: It could have been worse. A tale of hope for Bitshares.
« Reply #12 on: May 08, 2015, 06:00:50 AM »
We're going up. ;)

Do not sell.  Do not sell even a single BTS back to the bears.  Let them taste the fear of missing out.  Let them suffer from knowing they sold the low.

When people are desperately saying please don't sell, its a sure sign that things are going to get worse.

Bitcoin is poised to jump off a cliff. There is no way BTS is going up now; it can easily drop another 60-70%

lzr1900

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Re: It could have been worse. A tale of hope for Bitshares.
« Reply #13 on: May 08, 2015, 07:27:00 AM »
We're going up. ;)

Do not sell.  Do not sell even a single BTS back to the bears.  Let them taste the fear of missing out.  Let them suffer from knowing they sold the low.

When people are desperately saying please don't sell, its a sure sign that things are going to get worse.

Bitcoin is poised to jump off a cliff. There is no way BTS is going up now; it can easily drop another 60-70%

 +5% +5% +5% +5%

Offline Ben Mason

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Re: It could have been worse. A tale of hope for Bitshares.
« Reply #14 on: May 08, 2015, 07:59:15 AM »
 +5% Ander

How can we seem to forget what will happen when the $ finally folds or when the first gold/silver backed currency is launched or any of a multitude of other monumental economic shifts occur. Where do you think all the remaining capital will go?  Crypto in general, which means Bitshares, is poised for a monumental influx of capital.  Those who do their due diligence will find projects like Bitshares as they are few in number.  BitGold and BitSilver will be the soothing balm on a global scorched earth.

 

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