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Offline inarizushi

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What will happen if nobody shorts ?
« on: May 11, 2015, 06:40:44 PM »

Now that we don't have the 10% that enabled to short with profit to expired orders, we have big expired short orders waiting to be covered in most bitAssets. 50000 bitUSD, 14 bitBTC, 56 bitSILVER... the only peg that holds is bitCNY.

What will happen ? Won't that uncovered big volume produce a huge sell pressure at some point ?

Shouldn't we try to do something about that ? Like coordinating some shorting efforts on specific bitAssets ?
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Offline maqifrnswa

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Re: What will happen if nobody shorts ?
« Reply #1 on: May 11, 2015, 07:04:35 PM »
BM addresses it here:
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,16127.msg208102.html#msg208102

It is great that the 10% and 30 day rule was removed, it would have caused the force destruction of bitUSD when there is already an undersupply. That would be the bitshares equivalent of "crossing the streams"
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« Last Edit: May 11, 2015, 07:12:06 PM by maqifrnswa »
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Offline inarizushi

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Re: What will happen if nobody shorts ?
« Reply #2 on: May 16, 2015, 08:50:16 AM »
I'm happy that the 10% rule is over, yet there has to be some incentive to short. 1% would have been nice.

Now we have close to 400 bitSILVER, 57000 bitUSD and 22 bitBTC waiting in cover orders. That doesn't seem good to me.
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Offline inarizushi

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Re: What will happen if nobody shorts ?
« Reply #3 on: May 20, 2015, 04:18:25 PM »
70000 bitUSD are now waiting to cover. If a whale came and shut the BTS price down, all the collateral of those 70000 bitUSD and of all the other bitAssets waiting in cover orders could be collected.

Nobody seems to care, but I have the feeling that we'll go down again soon if nobody addresses that problem. Isn't there anybody here that could tell me why I shouldn't worry of all those cover orders accumulating ?
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Offline topcandle

Re: What will happen if nobody shorts ?
« Reply #4 on: May 20, 2015, 04:23:39 PM »
70000 bitUSD are now waiting to cover. If a whale came and shut the BTS price down, all the collateral of those 70000 bitUSD and of all the other bitAssets waiting in cover orders could be collected.

Nobody seems to care, but I have the feeling that we'll go down again soon if nobody addresses that problem. Isn't there anybody here that could tell me why I shouldn't worry of all those cover orders accumulating ?

cause we're moving to bitassets 2.0?
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Offline inarizushi

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Re: What will happen if nobody shorts ?
« Reply #5 on: May 20, 2015, 05:55:33 PM »
70000 bitUSD are now waiting to cover. If a whale came and shut the BTS price down, all the collateral of those 70000 bitUSD and of all the other bitAssets waiting in cover orders could be collected.

Nobody seems to care, but I have the feeling that we'll go down again soon if nobody addresses that problem. Isn't there anybody here that could tell me why I shouldn't worry of all those cover orders accumulating ?

cause we're moving to bitassets 2.0?

There was no clear announcements that bitAssets 1.0 would be converted into bitAssets 2.0. Actually the contrary was announced initially. (Did I miss something ?). The problem is only made worse.
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Offline topcandle

Re: What will happen if nobody shorts ?
« Reply #6 on: May 20, 2015, 06:09:32 PM »
70000 bitUSD are now waiting to cover. If a whale came and shut the BTS price down, all the collateral of those 70000 bitUSD and of all the other bitAssets waiting in cover orders could be collected.

Nobody seems to care, but I have the feeling that we'll go down again soon if nobody addresses that problem. Isn't there anybody here that could tell me why I shouldn't worry of all those cover orders accumulating ?

cause we're moving to bitassets 2.0?

There was no clear announcements that bitAssets 1.0 would be converted into bitAssets 2.0. Actually the contrary was announced initially. (Did I miss something ?). The problem is only made worse.

yes you missed a lot.  nothing is getting converted.  But functional improvements like bitassets 2.0 should PREVENT  the price of BTS from dropping. 
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Offline inarizushi

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Re: What will happen if nobody shorts ?
« Reply #7 on: May 20, 2015, 09:02:44 PM »
70000 bitUSD are now waiting to cover. If a whale came and shut the BTS price down, all the collateral of those 70000 bitUSD and of all the other bitAssets waiting in cover orders could be collected.

Nobody seems to care, but I have the feeling that we'll go down again soon if nobody addresses that problem. Isn't there anybody here that could tell me why I shouldn't worry of all those cover orders accumulating ?

cause we're moving to bitassets 2.0?

There was no clear announcements that bitAssets 1.0 would be converted into bitAssets 2.0. Actually the contrary was announced initially. (Did I miss something ?). The problem is only made worse.

yes you missed a lot.  nothing is getting converted.  But functional improvements like bitassets 2.0 should PREVENT  the price of BTS from dropping.

Hahahaha. I've been around for 9 months and all kinds of things were sure fire gonna prevent the price of BTS from dropping for all that time.
Having tens of millions of BTS locked in cover orders at the mercy of a big whaling doesn't look very preventable to me, especially not by a new, untested feature that will many people angry.
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Offline mf-tzo

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Re: What will happen if nobody shorts ?
« Reply #8 on: May 21, 2015, 02:15:05 PM »
Can someone please explain me why people want to buy bitusd above the peg and not asking the feed price for bitusd?
I understand in the past there was the need to cover and hence the demand for bitusd at 10% more expensive but I don't get that now.
Why don't you remove your buy  usd orders above peg so the sellers of bitusd are essentially obliged to sell their precious bitusd at parity with usd?
What am I missing again? ???

Online lil_jay890

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Re: What will happen if nobody shorts ?
« Reply #9 on: May 21, 2015, 02:20:05 PM »
This is pretty crazy with the amount of shorts that are locked in right now.  What will be really interesting will be to watch the price of BTS keep going up on the exchanges.  When will the bitUSD holders blink and start selling the bitUSD at the peg? 200, 150, 100?

Offline liondani

Re: What will happen if nobody shorts ?
« Reply #10 on: May 21, 2015, 02:40:37 PM »
Can someone please explain me why people want to buy bitusd above the peg and not asking the feed price for bitusd?
I understand in the past there was the need to cover and hence the demand for bitusd at 10% more expensive but I don't get that now.
Why don't you remove your buy  usd orders above peg so the sellers of bitusd are essentially obliged to sell their precious bitusd at parity with usd?
What am I missing again? ???

I think if relative orders would be possible we would not have these problems right now....
On so volatile market how to sell or buy really  to the price feed? I make an order now and after some hours I must check the order again to change it one more time... Nobody will do it except market makers using a script... PLEASE IMPLEMENT RELATIVE ORDERS SHORTLY except you are all happy with zero liquidity....
  https://bitshares.OPENLEDGER.info/?r=GREECE  | You are in Control | BUY | SELL | SHORT | SWAP | LOAN | TRADE |  

Offline mf-tzo

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Re: What will happen if nobody shorts ?
« Reply #11 on: May 21, 2015, 02:49:07 PM »
I understand that bitusd holders may want the security and don't want to sell their bitusd even at 200,100,50,30,1..That is fair enough...

What I don't understand is why someone will pay now +10% to buy bitusd to cover? Is it because i.e. someone can start dumping BTS like crazy on the external exchanges, manipulate the market and trigger margin calls? I really can't think of anything else..If that is the case and something like that happens at these levels then...we might as well go back to buy some earthcoins, or worldcoins etc..BTS will become worthless..

Relative orders obviously is a must.

Offline inarizushi

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Re: What will happen if nobody shorts ?
« Reply #12 on: May 21, 2015, 08:17:39 PM »
I understand that bitusd holders may want the security and don't want to sell their bitusd even at 200,100,50,30,1..That is fair enough...

What I don't understand is why someone will pay now +10% to buy bitusd to cover? Is it because i.e. someone can start dumping BTS like crazy on the external exchanges, manipulate the market and trigger margin calls? I really can't think of anything else..If that is the case and something like that happens at these levels then...we might as well go back to buy some earthcoins, or worldcoins etc..BTS will become worthless..

Relative orders obviously is a must.
I have no idea of how the cover orders behave right now, and even less in the future (for example, in what orders will they be covered ?). If the new 17000 lines of code thing is full of bugs/doesn't deliver for any reason, and the price crashes again, I certainly don't want my BTS to be locked.

And yes, I'm a bit paranoid of a whale attack. 70000 bitUSD in cover orders, that must be around 70000 * 200 * 3 = 42 millions BTS locked. With 26 bitBTC and 400 bitSILVER, that makes more than 50 millions. I have the impression it's possible to get a large portion of those by manipulating the price, but maybe I'm completely wrong on that. So yes, I'm willing to buy over price feed (not 10% though), because I'm still bearish (just when price goes up.. I've been almost 100% wrong all the way down, now I'm wrong again on the way up).

Actually, I wasn't sure before today that I could still manually cover the expired shorts. In my mind I could not, that's stupid, I should have asked.
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Offline Ander

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Re: What will happen if nobody shorts ?
« Reply #13 on: May 21, 2015, 09:38:06 PM »

because I'm still bearish (just when price goes up.. I've been almost 100% wrong all the way down, now I'm wrong again on the way up).

Why be bearish now?  As soon as it goes up a bit more, giving us a higher high and higher low, or holds this level a bit longer and the daily moving average crossover happens, no one is going to want to sell any BTS.  Silly time to be bearish. ;)
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Offline inarizushi

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Re: What will happen if nobody shorts ?
« Reply #14 on: May 21, 2015, 10:28:35 PM »

because I'm still bearish (just when price goes up.. I've been almost 100% wrong all the way down, now I'm wrong again on the way up).

Why be bearish now?  As soon as it goes up a bit more, giving us a higher high and higher low, or holds this level a bit longer and the daily moving average crossover happens, no one is going to want to sell any BTS.  Silly time to be bearish. ;)

Obviously I'm not bearish anymore when I see a +8% on CMC :). I also may just not understand the whole implications of "bear". I assume it means you believe that the price will go down in the short time, which I did... But I didn't act as a rational bear selling everything. I just happened to have bought some bitAssets at the low.

But if really the price will go up, then why is there so few shorts ? I'm pretty sure that as soon as I'll start shorting again, we'll have a 30-days downtrend :D
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