We are really what would be called a pre-Revenue company right now. A startup.
In the future doing this calculation would tell you something useful, but for now its just going to show you how close or far away we are from catching on.
Yeah I agree, but we can project a really really rough estimate of value. In terms of quantifying value-creation we can measure transaction volume for trading and purchases.
There are two target markets:
1) traders & speculators
2) merchants & consumers
We can estimate what people would pay for trading & payment services to estimate revenue. You will have to charge lower transaction fees for group one because you'll have higher transaction volumes. (You can charge maybe 0.1%? Bitfinex charges 0.2% for takers and 0.1% or lower for makers so let's say they get around .25% or 25 basis pts per trade) You can charge higher transaction fees for group two but will have lower volume. (Probably can charge up to 1%) The Bitshares platform also has to leave room for 3rd party platforms to profit as well.
Let's say a reasonable 3-yr goal for the Bitshares ecosystem will be:
1) Reach $5 million in transaction volume/day (size of Bitfinex) in trading
2) Reach $500k purchase transaction volume/day (Note: Dwolla hit $1 Billion in annual transaction volume in about 3-4 years.)
Trading revenue estimates at 0.1% x $5 million = $5,000 per day = $1.825 million/year
Purchase revenue estimates at 1% x $500k = $5,000 per day = $1.825 million/year
Total revenue = $3.65 million/year
So if we can reach those goals we can estimate a valuation of $18.25 million based on a price/sales ratio of 5. We get a valuation est. of $36.5 million with P/S of 10. (You can use higher P/S ratios than most industries because this is a high margin & growth business. You can also use P/E ratios or discounted cash flow (DCF) analysis) Now if we can increase volume in both categories even faster that would be fantastic, but there's still a lot of work to do.
BTW do transaction fees go on both sides of a trade on the internal exchange?
It's interesting to think about the revenue model. In the early stages of a company you probably want to have the least friction as possible to obtain maximum network effect before increasing transaction fees. On the other hand transaction fees may be used to grow and you can validate the business assumptions. I would probably prefer having negligible transaction fees and funding operations via dilution to minimize friction and maximize network effect.