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sumantso

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Donate PTS and BTC atleast 40 minutes before deadline
« on: January 14, 2014, 01:23:17 AM »

UPDATE: Seems like people are still sending in late and they are missing the deadline. To reiterate, if you definitely want to send today do so atleast 40 minutes in advance. Otherwise you run the risk of the donations getting credited the next day. Which is fine except that if there is a lot of leftover transactions the next day will see more donations and you will get less AGS.

The transactions list below here http://www1.agsexplorer.com/ is very useful. Shows how much donations couldn't reach in time. Today was the best day in this regard - 10+ BTC confirmed just after deadline :)

This is the biggest deadline miss - the last highest was some 7 BTC on 6th Jan which resulted in donation jumping from 45 BTC to 54 BTC the next day. I guess we may see a big jump today.

I have been donating each day after 2/3rds of the day has passed. The amount depends on the BTC already donated by that time. I skipped donating on 4th (faulty explorer caused under reporting of BTC) and 7th (late deposit from previous day).

Is this the best investment strategy? I think it is. Lets consider the 2 scenarios:
1> Already not much donated by my donation time. I then donate more than average as I expect bargain hunters to jump in later. If those transactions clear then I get the average; but if those get stuck (happened twice by now) then I get a bargain.

2> Already much donated. This usually happens if their is slippage from previous day. In that case I donate less than average as I expect a lot of investors have divided their BTC and investing a fixed amount daily.

Anybody else has a better strategy? Would love to know. Also, for how many days are you planning? 2months? 3 months?

In anycase, if you are sniping in at the end, give yourselves 40 minutes for the transaction to confirm. If it misses not only you lose the bargain price, you also end up at a higher price the next day.

EDIT: I realise posting this may have skewed how the investment goes so the strategy may end up useless. I guess the only thing you can take from this post is don't try to get in at the last minute (though I would love another day like today).
« Last Edit: February 04, 2014, 08:17:36 AM by sumantso »

Offline Markus

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Re: Some reasonably decent investment strategy (for BTC donations)
« Reply #1 on: January 14, 2014, 10:53:15 AM »
Yeah, that was fun watching this morning :)

I usually donate about 1 or 2 hours before midnight GMT when I'm having breakfast.

sumantso

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Re: Some reasonably decent investment strategy (for BTC donations)
« Reply #2 on: January 14, 2014, 12:25:47 PM »
As expected, its already 39 BTC donations today. I assumed this dude (https://blockchain.info/address/1PKztBuJghnBnA7baWUqencPKxjCLLiLgH) would invest 5 BTC today, but seems he went 10 BTC today.

The 'correct' BTC donation/day for the last few days seem to be around 45-46 BTC. Lets see if it can break 50 today.

Btw, this one (https://blockchain.info/address/1PQjUdLcMT6Q9wrsymB2zmPsDK8BDkNCPQ) is donating a fixed 10 BTC everyday (you can track it back) and so doesn't seem too interesting from our investment PoV. I do wonder how many days he plans to donate though. If its more than 100 days then it means almost a million dollars!
« Last Edit: January 14, 2014, 12:29:21 PM by sumantso »

sumantso

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Re: Some reasonably decent investment strategy (for BTC donations)
« Reply #3 on: January 15, 2014, 11:45:46 PM »
It has been a good day for BTC donations. Now I wonder if it is due to the price creeping up (PTS has been going up too), or a few investors thought it was a slow day as our 10 BTC donor (mentioned above) was late.

Good to see people not waiting till the last minute to donate. Only one transaction got stuck (it was sent without fee).
« Last Edit: January 16, 2014, 12:17:39 AM by sumantso »

sumantso

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Re: Some reasonably decent investment strategy (for BTC donations)
« Reply #4 on: January 17, 2014, 12:25:04 AM »
Looks like the same last minute donation syndrome struck PTS today. Donation was 2.7k - way below the average - and within 8 minutes of the clock striking midnight 520 PTS donations cleared.

Folks - give 40 minutes for donations to clear.

Offline santaclause102

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Re: Some reasonably decent investment strategy (for BTC donations)
« Reply #5 on: January 19, 2014, 12:29:17 PM »
Looks like the same last minute donation syndrome struck PTS today. Donation was 2.7k - way below the average - and within 8 minutes of the clock striking midnight 520 PTS donations cleared.

Folks - give 40 minutes for donations to clear.

as long as you send it away before time runs out it's ok right?

sumantso

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Re: Some reasonably decent investment strategy (for BTC donations)
« Reply #6 on: January 19, 2014, 12:30:01 PM »
Looks like the same last minute donation syndrome struck PTS today. Donation was 2.7k - way below the average - and within 8 minutes of the clock striking midnight 520 PTS donations cleared.

Folks - give 40 minutes for donations to clear.

as long as you send it away before time runs out it's ok right?

It has to have 1 confirm (unless I am massively mistaken, in which case the explorers are giving out wrong info).

The block generated time is taken as the time of donation.
« Last Edit: January 19, 2014, 12:31:52 PM by sumantso »

Offline santaclause102

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Re: Some reasonably decent investment strategy (for BTC donations)
« Reply #7 on: January 19, 2014, 01:37:50 PM »
Looks like the same last minute donation syndrome struck PTS today. Donation was 2.7k - way below the average - and within 8 minutes of the clock striking midnight 520 PTS donations cleared.

Folks - give 40 minutes for donations to clear.

as long as you send it away before time runs out it's ok right?

It has to have 1 confirm (unless I am massively mistaken, in which case the explorers are giving out wrong info).

The block generated time is taken as the time of donation.

So at which time do the pts have been sent? 1 minute before is enough?

sumantso

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Re: Some reasonably decent investment strategy (for BTC donations)
« Reply #8 on: January 19, 2014, 03:44:02 PM »
Looks like the same last minute donation syndrome struck PTS today. Donation was 2.7k - way below the average - and within 8 minutes of the clock striking midnight 520 PTS donations cleared.

Folks - give 40 minutes for donations to clear.

as long as you send it away before time runs out it's ok right?

It has to have 1 confirm (unless I am massively mistaken, in which case the explorers are giving out wrong info).

The block generated time is taken as the time of donation.

So at which time do the pts have been sent? 1 minute before is enough?

At bad times it may go upto 20-30 minutes between blocks, so send at least 30 minutes in advance, maybe even more.

Offline santaclause102

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Re: Some reasonably decent investment strategy (for BTC donations)
« Reply #9 on: January 20, 2014, 05:20:08 PM »
Looks like the same last minute donation syndrome struck PTS today. Donation was 2.7k - way below the average - and within 8 minutes of the clock striking midnight 520 PTS donations cleared.

Folks - give 40 minutes for donations to clear.

as long as you send it away before time runs out it's ok right?

It has to have 1 confirm (unless I am massively mistaken, in which case the explorers are giving out wrong info).

The block generated time is taken as the time of donation.

So at which time do the pts have been sent? 1 minute before is enough?

At bad times it may go upto 20-30 minutes between blocks, so send at least 30 minutes in advance, maybe even more.

how high are the chances that the funds are received on time if pts/btc are sent in say 2 minutes before deadline?

Offline bytemaster

Re: Some reasonably decent investment strategy (for BTC donations)
« Reply #10 on: January 20, 2014, 05:26:49 PM »
very LOW...  expected time to find a block is 10 minutes and all mining operations are independent.   You would be way out on the bell curve if you want 2 minute window.  So it is just as likely to take 2 minutes as it is to take 18 minutes and I have seen it take 40 minutes.

 I would always put my money in an 1hr before the deadline unless you are OK with your contribution missing one day and falling into the next. 
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Offline santaclause102

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Re: Some reasonably decent investment strategy (for BTC donations)
« Reply #11 on: January 20, 2014, 11:44:28 PM »
are these time recommendations the same for btc and pts?

sumantso

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Re: Some reasonably decent investment strategy (for BTC donations)
« Reply #12 on: January 21, 2014, 10:06:52 AM »
are these time recommendations the same for btc and pts?

Yes.

The starting post was partly motivated by the failure of almost 10 BTCs to clear in 37 minutes.

Offline santaclause102

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Re: Some reasonably decent investment strategy (for BTC donations)
« Reply #13 on: January 23, 2014, 12:53:33 AM »

Based on the mining speed can we predict when AGS and PTS supply will be equal?

Is there any reason why 3rd Party developers would honor ASG less than PTS in the future?

Offline Stan

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Re: Some reasonably decent investment strategy (for BTC donations)
« Reply #14 on: January 23, 2014, 01:16:41 AM »

Based on the mining speed can we predict when AGS and PTS supply will be equal?

Is there any reason why 3rd Party developers would honor ASG less than PTS in the future?

The misunderstanding that AGS somehow belongs to Invictus could cause some developers to rationalize that they can skip honoring the owners of AGS.  We think that would be a mistake.

Invictus is only a servant of AGS donors.  A temporary agent trusted to build an ecosystem for everybody to live in.   Once 100% of the donations have been used to build up the industry, infrastructure, toolkits, and even incubate other developers, Invictus will have done its duty and will become just another ordinary player with an obligation to honor AGS and PTS holders.

The product of that development and promotional effort belongs collectively to AGS holders, not Invictus.  They can decide how they want to enforce their ownership rights as documented in the BitShares Social Consensus License.  Perhaps peer pressure and market forces will be enough.  Perhaps some will feel justified in cloning AGS-derived DACs that fail to honor the license into competing DACs that do.  If so, it will be up to AGS and PTS holders to decide which pedigree of DACs they will support.

That, and only that, will determine the effectiveness of the AGS social contract.




Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract of any kind.   These are merely my opinions which I reserve the right to change at any time.

 

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