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Offline puvar

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Initial cap for BitShares X
« on: March 23, 2014, 10:35:54 AM »

Hi,

I tried to calculate the initial market cap for BitShares X.

Before the 2/28 snapshot 1 PTS was 0.03 BTC, after the snapshot it dropped to 0.01 BTC. Given that there are 1,500,000 coins in total it give us: (0.03 - 0.01) * 1,500,000 = 30,000 BTC - it's the total drop of the PTS cap which should transform to 15% of BitShares X cap (PTS part + 1/2 AGS part).

So the total BitShares X cap should be 30,000 / 15% = 200,000 BTC = $120,000,000.

Offline santaclause102

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Re: Initial cap for BitShares X
« Reply #1 on: March 23, 2014, 01:18:23 PM »
Marcet cap can not be "calculated". BTS X will not have a price first and will find its price based on the buy/sell decision of a lot of individuals. Those calculations can be a basis to estimate what people will do.
You based your calculations on PTS. If you base it on AGS it will be lower. I calculated something around 20 million...
Wait and see :)

Offline BldSwtTrs

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Re: Initial cap for BitShares X
« Reply #2 on: March 23, 2014, 02:40:20 PM »
I calculated 27m$ (6.8$ per BTS).

I took 0.016BTC as value lost per PTS after the snapshot. At BTC=570$ it give 9.12$ lost per PTS.

1 PTS is 1.33 BTS so 9.12 / 1.33 = 6.8$ per BTS

But who knows.
« Last Edit: March 23, 2014, 02:43:05 PM by BldSwtTrs »

Offline davidpbrown

Re: Initial cap for BitShares X
« Reply #3 on: March 23, 2014, 03:35:11 PM »
Total BTS X coins surely is 4,000,000 as per this and others. I don't know where OP got 15% from but then I've not really ever understood the size of AGS.

You could consider what value BTS would need to be to replace that lost from the initial PTS drop but BTS are not PTS, the whole point is the added value and utility that follows.
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Offline puvar

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Re: Initial cap for BitShares X
« Reply #4 on: March 23, 2014, 08:35:08 PM »
Oh sorry, I made a mistake. I thought 10% of BTS will come from PTS, and another 10% of BTS will come from AGS (like in future DACs), while actually it's 50%/50%.

So, in this case, it's not 15%, but 75%. I'm making a rough assumption the smart market evaluates the initial utility of BTS by the price drop. Some portions of all PTS (except those held for 1/2 AGS) goes to 50% of BTS. The remaining portion (held for 1/2 AGS) goes to 25% of BTS. The AGS part is tricky as it's not obvious how the smart market includes them (has this part been traded or considered to be traded?)

It gives us 30,000 BTC / 75% = 40,000 BTC = $24,000,000 (which is somehow in order with BldSwtTrs's and delulo's predictions).

If we ignore the AGS part, then we can say that total number of PTS coins is lower (maybe around 1,250,000 PTS), so the drop is something like 26,000 BTC, so it gives us: 26,000 / 50% = 52,000 BTC = $31,000,000.

(Sorry, I was lazy to take exact numbers, so everything is just a rough estimate).

Offline mint chocolate chip

Re: Initial cap for BitShares X
« Reply #5 on: March 23, 2014, 09:13:43 PM »
The price of PTS and AGS gained a good amount in the lead up to the snapshot. These estimates are projections based on figures at that moment.

It would not be a stretch to think that when BTS rolls out we are not going to see another push of several magnitudes.  The ceiling on a project like this seems really high, and the supply seems pretty low. And who doesn't like dividends?

 

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