Author [EN] [ZH] [ES] [PT] [IT] [DE] [FR] [NL] [TR] [SR] [AR] [RU] [EN] [ZH] [ES] [PT] [IT] [DE] [FR] [NL] [TR] [SR] [AR] [RU] [EN] [ZH] [ES] [PT] [IT] [DE] [FR] [NL] [TR] [SR] [AR] [RU] Topic: Ethereum crowd sale is live  (Read 1921 times)

0 Members and 1 Guest are viewing this topic.

Offline luckybit

Ethereum crowd sale is live
« on: July 23, 2014, 02:31:35 PM »

So far they have raised over 4000 BTC in a matter of hours. It seems to be relatively few donors contributing a whole lot of BTC very quickly.

I think investing is a high opportunity cost. I think mining on the other hand could be great if its something we can mine with our CPUs.
https://blog.ethereum.org/2014/07/22/launching-the-ether-sale/ 2000 ETH per BTC.
http://www.coindesk.com/ethereum-launches-ether-coin-millions-already-sold/
http://cointelegraph.com/news/112129/ethereum-raises-3700-btc-in-first-12-hours-of-ether-presale
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=BwPulJKP1_Y&feature=youtu.be

Ethereum right now is an experiment. A lot of variables which keep changing. While it might be a good idea to have some small amount I don't see a reason to throw large amounts of Bitcoins at it.

I wish them luck though. Their project is quite important for the ecosystem.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2014, 02:35:58 PM by luckybit »
https://metaexchange.info | Bitcoin<->Altcoin exchange | Instant | Safe | Low spreads

Offline bytemaster

Re: Ethereum crowd sale is live
« Reply #1 on: July 23, 2014, 03:05:55 PM »
Considering they have a fixed-price system for their IPO and have set the price at a 10 Million market cap, it is relatively cheap for large investors to BUY IT ALL UP before anyone else can get in the game.   Investors simply make an estimate on the valuation of Eth. at launch and assume it works a 10 Million market cap is probably a "safe" bet. 

This will cause ETH to have the appearance of extreme centralization in initial ownership.   Then they have mining... seems to me that this is the soft underbelly and that by the time ETH arrives mining will be a thing of the past.
For the latest updates checkout my blog: http://bytemaster.bitshares.org
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract between myself and anyone else.   These are merely my opinions and I reserve the right to change them at any time.

Offline toast

Re: Ethereum crowd sale is live
« Reply #2 on: July 23, 2014, 03:07:53 PM »
Considering they have a fixed-price system for their IPO and have set the price at a 10 Million market cap, it is relatively cheap for large investors to BUY IT ALL UP before anyone else can get in the game.   Investors simply make an estimate on the valuation of Eth. at launch and assume it works a 10 Million market cap is probably a "safe" bet. 

This will cause ETH to have the appearance of extreme centralization in initial ownership.   Then they have mining... seems to me that this is the soft underbelly and that by the time ETH arrives mining will be a thing of the past.

No, they are adjusting the total supply after the sale so that it is the ~80% which is not premined
Do not use this post as information for making any important decisions. The only agreements I ever make are informal and non-binding. Take the same precautions as when dealing with a compromised account, scammer, sockpuppet, etc.

Offline cass

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 4328
  • /(┬.┬)\
    • View Profile
Re: Ethereum crowd sale is live
« Reply #3 on: July 23, 2014, 03:08:50 PM »
sounds logic
█║▌║║█  - - -  The quieter you become, the more you are able to hear  - - -  █║▌║║█

Offline luckybit

Re: Ethereum crowd sale is live
« Reply #4 on: July 23, 2014, 03:42:20 PM »
Considering they have a fixed-price system for their IPO and have set the price at a 10 Million market cap, it is relatively cheap for large investors to BUY IT ALL UP before anyone else can get in the game.   Investors simply make an estimate on the valuation of Eth. at launch and assume it works a 10 Million market cap is probably a "safe" bet. 

This will cause ETH to have the appearance of extreme centralization in initial ownership.   Then they have mining... seems to me that this is the soft underbelly and that by the time ETH arrives mining will be a thing of the past.

The problem is opportunity cost. $10 million in Bitcoins today could be $100 million in 2015. I've seen this before with the Trezor wallet which was going for 1 BTC each back when Bitcoin was around $100 and now it's finally shipping at a price of each Trezor costing the customer $650.

By the time ETH becomes liquid the price of everything else may have gone up dramatically. In the long term Ethereum has a strong chance at being in the top 3 but it's also very risky (not in $ but in BTC). I wouldn't think anything of putting $100 into it but $100 in BTC is like giving it stock which might rise faster than what it's traded for.

Having said all of this I do think even at these prices it's likely to ROI even with the inflation. I can see Ethereum easily having a 10 billion dollar market cap a year or two from now if it works (and that is a very big if).

If we can mine it with our CPUs then the best strategy to have minimal opportunity cost is to invest a very small amount in the crowd sale and focus mostly on mining or providing cloud mining services. Bitshares delegates or users can mine it for us and offer an IOU token so that we can just buy our ETH from within Bitshares itself by buying their ETH cloud mining asset.


« Last Edit: July 23, 2014, 03:52:09 PM by luckybit »
https://metaexchange.info | Bitcoin<->Altcoin exchange | Instant | Safe | Low spreads

Offline Empirical1

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 884
    • View Profile
Re: Ethereum crowd sale is live
« Reply #5 on: July 23, 2014, 03:52:17 PM »
I haven't been following Ethereum much, what is it supposed to do better than BitShares that is worth waiting 6 months for?

(I watched the 'what is Ethereum' video and the only use cases that sounded profitable were one's BitShares is already working on.)

Coindesk said the crowdsale announcement came as a surprise. Is it possible they've looked at BitShares X and realised in a few weeks everyone is going to see BitShares is already doing everything they say they 'might' be able to start doing in 6 months?

I mean I have hedges in NXT and I bought XCP at POB stage but I can't see myself putting a cent here at the moment.
What am I missing?

Offline luckybit

Re: Ethereum crowd sale is live
« Reply #6 on: July 23, 2014, 03:59:21 PM »
I haven't been following Ethereum much, what is it supposed to do better than BitShares that is worth waiting 6 months for?

(I watched the 'what is Ethereum' video and the only use cases that sounded profitable were one's BitShares is already working on.)

Coindesk said the crowdsale announcement came as a surprise. Is it possible they've looked at BitShares X and realised in a few weeks everyone is going to see BitShares is already doing everything they say they 'might' be able to start doing in 6 months?

I mean I have hedges in NXT and I bought XCP at POB stage but I can't see myself putting a cent here at the moment.
What am I missing?

It's not necessarily going to be better it's just more general purposed. If you wanted to build a distributed state for example you might be better off with the flexibility that Ethereum offers you. Ethereum offers you flexibility, options, and a place to experiment with the most cutting edge ideas and technologies.

The way to profit from ETH is because ETH is the gas/fuel and must be mined for running any contract. So if you're a miner you'll make a fortune if the popularity of smart contracts grows (and it's likely going to grow over time).

I think the best way to play is to cloud mine ETH and integrate that into Bitshares. This way Bitshares as a community can diversify through the delegates offering a refund in ETH in exchange for voting for them or in the form of cloud mining assets. This would have to be done by the most trusted delegates.

https://metaexchange.info | Bitcoin<->Altcoin exchange | Instant | Safe | Low spreads


Offline Empirical1

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 884
    • View Profile
Re: Ethereum crowd sale is live
« Reply #8 on: July 23, 2014, 04:44:53 PM »
Thanks for the reply Luckybit

It's not necessarily going to be better it's just more general purposed. If you wanted to build a distributed state for example you might be better off with the flexibility that Ethereum offers you. Ethereum offers you flexibility, options, and a place to experiment with the most cutting edge ideas and technologies.


I'll have to look into it more. I'd have to see an example, like a business trying to do 'Y' on a DPOS BlockChain/With BitShares will be out competed by one using Ethereum because...


Quote
The way to profit from ETH is because ETH is the gas/fuel and must be mined for running any contract. So if you're a miner you'll make a fortune if the popularity of smart contracts grows (and it's likely going to grow over time).

I think this is what people are basing most of the value on but I don't get it.  If there is value to be gained that way, individual companies and their investors would rather have those gains flow directly to them. (Chance Coin makes bettors convert to CHA rather than BTC to increase their value. BlackCoin pays out POW miners in BC rather than BTC to increase value. BitShares X brings people into a BTSX denominated system to increase value rather than operating in BTC.)

I must be misunderstanding something about smart contracts & why developers will keep them on the Ethereum blockchain to benefit all Ether holders, when the could have seperate blockchains people can buy into with BTC.

Oh and obviously Bitcoin is doomed anyway.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2014, 05:27:33 PM by Empirical1 »

Offline Empirical1

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 884
    • View Profile
Re: Ethereum crowd sale is live
« Reply #9 on: July 23, 2014, 04:48:50 PM »
Toast is probably right, but I can't find where it is written.

If that is right then basically the people who buy in now have no idea what they are paying for. This crowd sale can easily capture 50 000 BTC, leaving investors with slim to no return at launch in an inflationary currency..

http://www.ted.com/talks/malcolm_gladwell_the_unheard_story_of_david_and_goliath

Yeah that's the thing even if it's 25 000 BTC, with an inflationary currency, having to wait months for something competitors are delivering a lot of already. I don't see the value in buying now

Offline CLains

  • Hero Member
  • *****
  • Posts: 2606
    • View Profile
  • BTS: clains
Re: Ethereum crowd sale is live
« Reply #10 on: July 23, 2014, 04:50:00 PM »
Toast is probably right, but I can't find where it is written.


Terms and Conditions of the Ethereum Genesis Sale

p. 13 EthSuisse will not place a cap on the number of ETH that can be purchased by the community.EthSuisse reserves the right to change the duration of any affected discounting period for any reason,including the unavailability of the website https://www.ethereum.org or other unforeseen procedural or security issues.
p.12 EthSuisse reserves the right to change the date when the Genesis Sale will begin and further reserves the right to extend the sale duration for any reason, including the unavailability of the website https://www.ethereum.org or other unforeseen security or procedural issues. Though it does not currently anticipate doing so, EthSuisse also reserves the right to shorten the sale duration for any reason.


Thanks. (:

Offline Brent.Allsop

  • Sr. Member
  • ****
  • Posts: 242
    • View Profile
    • Canonizer.com
Re: Ethereum crowd sale is live
« Reply #11 on: July 23, 2014, 05:04:12 PM »

The problem is opportunity cost. $10 million in Bitcoins today could be $100 million in 2015.

I'm in the camp that is predicting all mined coins, including Bitcoin, will become worthless once BitShares X get going, proving that you don't need the high cost of mining.

http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/7

if you think differently, please indicate such in that survey topic, and explain why you think this, so we can track the expert consensus as the future proof comes in.

If Bitshares X surpasses the market cap of Bitcoin, think of how fast people will be abandoning it to get in on the next new superior thing.  People that wait too long will loose a LOT in the transition, all this money going to the smart money, way ahead of the crowd.

I don't own any bitcoin.

Anyone want to sell me a lot of BitShares X?

Brent Allsop





« Last Edit: July 23, 2014, 05:06:53 PM by Brent.Allsop »

Offline luckybit

Re: Ethereum crowd sale is live
« Reply #12 on: July 23, 2014, 05:27:07 PM »

The problem is opportunity cost. $10 million in Bitcoins today could be $100 million in 2015.

I'm in the camp that is predicting all mined coins, including Bitcoin, will become worthless once BitShares X get going, proving that you don't need the high cost of mining.

http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/7

if you think differently, please indicate such in that survey topic, and explain why you think this, so we can track the expert consensus as the future proof comes in.

If Bitshares X surpasses the market cap of Bitcoin, think of how fast people will be abandoning it to get in on the next new superior thing.  People that wait too long will loose a LOT in the transition, all this money going to the smart money, way ahead of the crowd.

I don't own any bitcoin.

Anyone want to sell me a lot of BitShares X?

Brent Allsop

I think if it were all about technology you would be right. Technology and math would say that Bitshares is measurably and demonstrably better than Bitcoin/PoW.

But really the secret sauce is in the marketing. If you get the marketing wrong then it doesn't matter how good your product is. Bitcoin had 1000+% return on investment and due to marketing people still thought it was a ponzi scheme. On the other hand those high returns are what has attracted the media attention which brought in high net worth investors.

Marketing is what mining does and it's very difficult to compare PoW to PoS in terms of marketing. Maybe with the delegates you could do something similar where the delegates can function like the miners in DPoS but we really don't know enough yet in my opinion to predict Bitshares will have a higher market cap.

I think if we were going by technology right now it would be Nxt with the highest market cap. Explain why Litecoin is so high?

What I think Bitshares should do for marketing to attract high net worth investors is first prove it's successful and measure success in the return on investment. If the ROI is very high for the people who bought in early on then a year from now a case can be made that Bitshares is an even better investment than Bitcoin. People who invest don't necessary understand the technology or care but they want to know how Bitshares is doing on coinmarketcap and see long term exponential growth.

« Last Edit: July 23, 2014, 05:33:45 PM by luckybit »
https://metaexchange.info | Bitcoin<->Altcoin exchange | Instant | Safe | Low spreads

Offline luckybit

Re: Ethereum crowd sale is live
« Reply #13 on: July 23, 2014, 07:08:28 PM »

I think if it were all about technology you would be right. Technology and math would say that Bitshares is measurably and demonstrably better than Bitcoin/PoW.

But really the secret sauce is in the marketing. If you get the marketing wrong then it doesn't matter how good your product is. Bitcoin had 1000+% return on investment and due to marketing people still thought it was a ponzi scheme. On the other hand those high returns are what has attracted the media attention which brought in high net worth investors.

Marketing is what mining does and it's very difficult to compare PoW to PoS in terms of marketing. Maybe with the delegates you could do something similar where the delegates can function like the miners in DPoS but we really don't know enough yet in my opinion to predict Bitshares will have a higher market cap.

I think if we were going by technology right now it would be Nxt with the highest market cap. Explain why Litecoin is so high?

What I think Bitshares should do for marketing to attract high net worth investors is first prove it's successful and measure success in the return on investment. If the ROI is very high for the people who bought in early on then a year from now a case can be made that Bitshares is an even better investment than Bitcoin. People who invest don't necessary understand the technology or care but they want to know how Bitshares is doing on coinmarketcap and see long term exponential growth.
'...Marketing is what mining does...'

'...What I think Bitshares should do for marketing to attract high net worth investors is first prove it's successful and measure success in the return on investment...'

This is total nonsense...

Prove it's nonsense. Show that the market cap can surpass Litecoin without relying on marketing the price charts.

Litecoin has a high market cap because a lot more people own GPUs than who can do technical analysis. It's well marketed because those people who have GPUs don't want all their mined coins to become worthless but as they find they cannot mine with GPUs anymore the price of Litecoin will go down as it's doing.

Bitcoin is popular not because people know how it works but because people who could do technical analysis heard the price was going up and then they had a look at the price charts.

If you want to market Bitshares to sophisticated investors then you need to show growth on the charts. Most sophisticated investors don't have a clue what TITAN is and probably don't care about that. What they want to know if whether or not it will be a ROI if they put $100,000 into it.

In fact if you can show that for the past few years that it has had consistent growth there is no better form of marketing to an investor. That is why Bitcoin is attracting Wall Street. People who buy stocks aren't necessarily cryptography experts and you're going to have a hard time explaining to them why they should invest in Bitshares over Bitcoin.

If you think I'm wrong and what I'm saying is nonsense then please start a Bitshares Investment Trust. Then go market to sophisticated investors and see which form of marketing attracts more investment.

Friendly marketing advice for GUI developers

Once the technology has market assets working and it's fully explained then we can make the transition from focusing on explaining the beauty of the technology into focusing on price models, technical analysis, interest rates, burn rates, etc.

So it's a good idea to make sure that the user can see their portfolios and how much money they make in whichever currency they choose throughout the day. The currency conversion should be built into Bitshares itself and the user should be able to select how to view it. If there is an arbitrage opportunity the GUI should indicate it to the user and there should be some ways for the user to automate transactions based on conditionals (right now I don't see much of this in the GUI).

1) For instance if I'm making money doing arbitrage or from some kind of contract for difference then I might want to automate taking the profits from that and putting it into a particular BitAsset. This would automate the process of buying the particular BitAsset (automatic reinvestment).

Another example is if I'm trying to determine the value of my portfolio in Bitcoins it should show me as easy as point and click (just like Bter). If I'm trying to see the value of my portfolio in dollars, the euro, or any BitAsset, it should show me by point and click. It would be helpful if there were pretty graphs, pie charts, and useful models which can forecast where the price should be if the price trend continues.

This way the users can do some basic technical analysis from within the app itself. A cool feature would be if a particularly successful investor could somehow prove their investment history is good so that when they blog and/or tweet their technical analysis it's somehow backed by the blockchain evidence without revealing all their details but I realize it might be hard to do this.

In my opinion the best marketing for investors starts with the GUI. If the GUI is geared so that it makes it both fun and easy to be an investor, and if it simplifies technical analysis, then it will be great. The more automation the better.


« Last Edit: July 23, 2014, 07:42:51 PM by luckybit »
https://metaexchange.info | Bitcoin<->Altcoin exchange | Instant | Safe | Low spreads

Offline luckybit

Re: Ethereum crowd sale is live
« Reply #14 on: July 23, 2014, 08:34:25 PM »
Prove it's nonsense

I have long given up proving anything to you, as you know.

Then why make the statement?

http://www.cryptocoincharts.info/v2/pair/ltc/usd/btc-e/alltime 

At least my statement I can show the Litecoin charts (Litecoin is a miners cryptocurrency which is losing the mining demographic as it switches to ASICs) and the Bitcoin charts. The Litecoin chart above seems to show that people switched to Litecoin right around the time when Bitcoin rose to 100+ and possibly in response to Bitcoin being too expensive. People who discovered Bitcoin may have thought they could have a chance to get rich if they buy or mine Litecoins back when it could be mined with a GPU and a Litecoin was less than $1. Bitcoin also transitioned into ASICs at around the same time period which may have had something to do with it too.

http://www.nature.com/srep/2013/131204/srep03415/fig_tab/srep03415_F2.html

Bitcoin Google search trend popularity is highly correlated with price increase which seems to show that when the price increases there are more positive articles written about Bitcoin which markets Bitcoin to greater numbers of investors who then invest causing the price to rise exponentially until the bubble pops. My conclusion from this chart is that price increases generate positive interest but at the same time there is a threshold where people start thinking something is too expensive (I don't really understand why people don't like to buy fractions because it's entirely unreasonable).

Both are successful so far in terms of ROI and have different marketing and user demographics to appeal to. Bitcoin is primarily being marketed to sophisticated investors, hedge fund managers and ETFs. Litecoin was marketed toward GPU owners (now they have ASICs so I don't know where they go from here).
http://www.coindesk.com/6-new-hedge-funds-seeking-bitcoin-returns/

What makes you think they care about anything other than ROI? If you're an investor why wouldn't you care most about ROI? Miners care about this too which is why they stop mining with GPUs when it's no longer profitable and switch to something which is.
« Last Edit: July 23, 2014, 08:56:22 PM by luckybit »
https://metaexchange.info | Bitcoin<->Altcoin exchange | Instant | Safe | Low spreads

 

Google+