When will BTSX surpass Litecoin? - Prediction Markets

donkeypong · August 28, 2014, 01:27:43 AM

The consolidation of this market position actually is a good thing. It is giving BitUSD a chance to be born and stabilize. As that becomes proven and trusted to the world, BTSX's demand should grow well beyond Litecoin's.

Fairlay · August 28, 2014, 12:52:53 AM

since there was no prediction on bitshares yet, we created an event for Jan 1st.

https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitsharesx-crosses-litecoin-before-jan-1st/

Btc38 · August 24, 2014, 04:10:10 AM

:) we would like to promote BTSX in china.

donkeypong · August 23, 2014, 09:17:49 PM

Well, look at it this way. BTSX tripled over the last week with no assets yet and minimal marketing. Even during this pullback, Litecoin has fallen more. So as of right now, we only need to triple again to take Litecoin.

jae208 · August 23, 2014, 09:04:02 PM

+5%

Thank you fairlay!!!

Fairlay · August 23, 2014, 04:26:07 PM

https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/bitshares-x/

Here you find percentages how likely things are (they are always an upper bound - this is why they sum up to >100) but consider - the ones with a (*) are predictions that are right now not backed by someone.

This means until now people are only willing to bet against bitshares.

Lets take the ≈10% for bitshares passing LTC by Sept1.: What it means is that someone is willing to bet on litecoins and is willing to give odds 11. (He bets 10 and someone else could bet 1 against him) The winner would get 11.

Since no one is willing (at the moment to take this odds) the assumption is that the likelihood of this event is <10% (since otherwise probably someone would take the bet)

As soon as someone is willing to bet ON bitshares we can give a upper bound for the other outcome. (Bitshares passing LTC). If you click on "use the advanced form" you see a visualization of the bounds. If you play a little bit with the slider you should get the concept of odds and corresponding percentages.

Information obv. get more reliable with more participants and higher volume. (normally as soon as >100mBTC are bet on both sites the values turns out to be pretty realistic) (since if they are not someone would come in and take the arbitrage opportunity)

jae208 · August 23, 2014, 01:31:35 PM

+5%

Any idea what would be considered "enough" people? Also, based on current numbers more people have bet on September 1st right?

toast · August 23, 2014, 01:17:07 PM

These are three separate yes/no markets for people to bet on when it will happen. The markets dont mean anything until enough people bet.

Sent from my SCH-I535 using Tapatalk

jae208 · August 23, 2014, 12:58:55 PM

Not sure if I'm reading this correctly but is this prediction market saying that BTSX will surpass Litecoin before Sept 1st?

jae208 · August 23, 2014, 04:59:05 AM

Brian should make a bet and tell us what he thinks. Just out of curiosity.

lucky331 · August 23, 2014, 12:38:36 AM

getting the bookies in ain't a bad idea actually. it will give bitshares and crypto-currencies more exposure actually. and i wouldn't mind if they get their action in as investments in crypto.

MktDirector · August 23, 2014, 12:33:51 AM

This is hillarious! All we need now is Vegas to start in on the gambling. B

tonyk · August 23, 2014, 12:13:28 AM

BTC?

You people are truly amazing. Why do you think anybody here keeps BTC when BTSX is out there?

Fairlay · August 22, 2014, 10:44:14 PM

Thanks for this event suggestions.

If anyone has question about how it is working/ the user interface - we are here to help.

Basically it is a p2p betting market (prediction market) where people can bet against each other. As soon as some liquidity comes in to the events the trading orders turn into a decent prediction of the future.

Have a look at some graphs created on fairlay so far: http://blog.fairlay.com/2014/07/some-graphs-our-prediction-market-created-so-far/

testz · August 22, 2014, 09:56:38 PM

Quote from: 38PTSWarrior on August 22, 2014, 09:52:26 PM
Oh, I don't have any BTC, sorry,

Same :( Maybe they can accept at least PTS? :)

38PTSWarrior · August 22, 2014, 09:52:26 PM

Oh, I don't have any BTC, sorry,

38PTSWarrior · August 22, 2014, 09:50:25 PM

Did you put a little BTC inside toast? I also don't know bobmaloney, I just clicked through and am "in". Oh yeah!

bobmaloney · August 22, 2014, 09:42:20 PM

What is this "mBTC" stuff?

CLains · August 22, 2014, 09:33:27 PM

Now this will get interesting.. :)

toast · August 22, 2014, 09:29:09 PM

Lots of fanboys predicting August and September. Ready to put your money where your mouth is?
Given how accurately this predicted BTSX+BitAsset launch, let's try again:

BTSX goes above Litecoin before...
Sept 1st: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitsharesx-crosses-litecoin-market-cap-before-sept-1st/
Sept 14th: https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitsharesx-crosses-litecoin-market-cap-before-sept-14th/
Oct 1st : https://www.fairlay.com/predict/registered/new/bitsharesx-crosses-litecoin-market-cap-before-oct-1st/