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Offline Chuckone

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I've got a feeling (Future DACs market caps will be huge)
« on: August 27, 2014, 01:05:57 PM »

Just thinking out loud here...

BTSX made a very good start on the markets (yes, the service/product offering is very nice and will be worth every penny of its market cap, even though there's a lot of speculation). LTS volumes seems to be increasing a lot in the last 24h, even though the distribution to PTS/AGS hasn't matured yet, so it's probably due to the artificial scarcity and we'll probably see an increase in volumes and a price drop upon the maturation of several big players' stacks. 

I don't know if there's a link between the impressive trading volumes of BTSX and the increase in volume for LTS...

I do have a feeling though that BTSX gives some serious credibility to every future DAC that will be released from the Bitshares community. I think several investors who missed the boat for the initial increase in value of BTSX will rush to buy shares of DNS as soon as it hits the market.

I might be wrong, but I'm very bullish regarding the future market cap of DNS, as well as the future increase in BTSX market cap as new features will be released. And even though we haven't heard about music DAC progress in a while, I'm pretty sure it will also be a success right upon release...

Everybody, any thoughts about this?

Offline tonyk

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Re: I've got a feeling (Future DACs market caps will be huge)
« Reply #1 on: August 27, 2014, 01:08:14 PM »
Hmm...
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline CLains

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Re: I've got a feeling (Future DACs market caps will be huge)
« Reply #2 on: August 27, 2014, 01:57:57 PM »
i seriously doubt PTS should be at this low price ...
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Offline Chuckone

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Re: I've got a feeling (Future DACs market caps will be huge)
« Reply #3 on: August 27, 2014, 02:47:50 PM »
i seriously doubt PTS should be at this low price ...

Yeah, I hear you, it's very low as we speak, and it seems a lot of people sold at low price (0.0080-0.0085) just before DNS/Vote snapshot. The volumes were fairly high... Don't quite understand why so many people sold just before a snapshot for a price that low. Could miners be responsible for dumping just before snapshot? Or is it that faith in those DACs isn't high enough so the supply met the demand for PST pre-snapshot?

Offline CLains

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Re: I've got a feeling (Future DACs market caps will be huge)
« Reply #4 on: August 27, 2014, 06:25:08 PM »
People speculate that price will go higher before the snapshot.. Speculators realize their mistake when price starts to go down even before the snapshot is taken, causing an avalanche.

I doubt BitShares ME, BitShares Play and BitShares Music is factored into the PTS price. Even the double announcement caused only a minor bump on the charts. Now that BitShares X has proven itself as a major crypto, you'd think people would rush to PTS to participate in the BitShares ecosystem - nothing so far ...
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Offline donkeypong

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Re: I've got a feeling (Future DACs market caps will be huge)
« Reply #5 on: August 27, 2014, 07:04:29 PM »
I think few people have taken the time to understand the whole ecosystem.

Offline FreeTrade

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Re: I've got a feeling (Future DACs market caps will be huge)
« Reply #6 on: August 27, 2014, 07:14:34 PM »
I doubt BitShares ME, BitShares Play and BitShares Music is factored into the PTS price. Even the double announcement caused only a minor bump on the charts.

I agree with you.

There's a theory with stocks that you shouldn't bother trying to time the market because all the available information is already factored into the price. This may even be the case already with Bitcoin, but I've come to realize that this isn't the case with alts - there is too much going on, the landscape is too complex and there are too few people applying their knowledge for this to be true.  If you have some real understanding of what's going on, or what news is good or bad for a coin, even something as basic as the dates for a PTS distribution, the market price usually doesn't reflect it with any kind of speed.
“People should be more sophisticated? How are you gonna get that done?” - Jerry Seinfeld reply to Bill Maher

Offline Chuckone

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Re: I've got a feeling (Future DACs market caps will be huge)
« Reply #7 on: August 27, 2014, 07:18:17 PM »
Well I guess those who care about how the ecosystem works will see an opportunity to grab cheap PTS...

But there's something else I think might weigh in favor of low PTS prices... Since BTSX was awarded to only those who had PTS on Feb. 28 (and Keyhotee founders), all those who missed the train might think it's a better investment to put their money directly in a DAC that is already out there rather than invest in PTS and have shares of potential DACs in the future.

You have to be a believer to invest in something that will give you shares of future DACs that "might" perform in the future.

Offline Chuckone

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Re: I've got a feeling (Future DACs market caps will be huge)
« Reply #8 on: August 27, 2014, 07:36:41 PM »
I doubt BitShares ME, BitShares Play and BitShares Music is factored into the PTS price. Even the double announcement caused only a minor bump on the charts.

I agree with you.

There's a theory with stocks that you shouldn't bother trying to time the market because all the available information is already factored into the price. This may even be the case already with Bitcoin, but I've come to realize that this isn't the case with alts - there is too much going on, the landscape is too complex and there are too few people applying their knowledge for this to be true.  If you have some real understanding of what's going on, or what news is good or bad for a coin, even something as basic as the dates for a PTS distribution, the market price usually doesn't reflect it with any kind of speed.

That sounds right. Speculation seems to be a greater force in price determination than a relevant valuation with all available information factored.

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Offline CLains

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merockstar

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Re: I've got a feeling (Future DACs market caps will be huge)
« Reply #12 on: August 28, 2014, 03:08:13 AM »
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=uSD4vsh1zDA

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