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Offline wesphily

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Can't Short
« on: August 29, 2014, 02:36:31 PM »

bitusd is about to go crazy because people are unable to short it....This is stupid. I want to short at 38 for the reversal but I can't because it is "outside the range." This safeguard is making bitusd stupid high.

Offline biophil

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Re: Can't Short
« Reply #1 on: August 29, 2014, 02:41:38 PM »
Please get out your spreadsheet and take a moment to understand what you're saying. BitUSD is worth about 80 cents right now. shorting at 38 would push the market price away from the peg.

Offline wesphily

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Re: Can't Short
« Reply #2 on: August 29, 2014, 02:51:06 PM »
Then why would the range be way below 38? I would think the safeguard would be trying to get the price in line. Instead it is not allowing a short above 30ish.

Offline biophil

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Re: Can't Short
« Reply #3 on: August 29, 2014, 03:12:29 PM »
Then why would the range be way below 38? I would think the safeguard would be trying to get the price in line. Instead it is not allowing a short above 30ish.

I just noticed that... that's weird. It appears to be a band around the 1h moving average, which is climbing fast.

Ggozzo

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Re: Can't Short
« Reply #4 on: August 29, 2014, 03:22:23 PM »
BTSX/USD is ~44/1

BTSX/bitUSD ~37/1

Anyone putting in sell or short orders under 43btsx/bitUSD is discounting the bitUSD. 

I think the problem is not that there are too many bitUSD shorts, but rather there is no demand for bitUSD. This is due to the fact that there is nothing to do with it but hold your bitUSD.  Once there are more outlets for bitUSD and more liquidity within ALL the platform markets, the peg will tighten up.

The thing to remember is: if you bought bitUSD at a certain percentage discount, then selling it at a discount after you profited would be exactly the same as selling if the peg was true and the market moved the same directional percentages.

Also, don't put ridiculous bids/ask in the books. If your trade is a loss, get out of it. Don't put pie in the sky orders in at where you wish to get out "when it comes back around". Set trading rules. i.e. You will close a trade after it posts a 10% loss or a 10% gain. If you are trading, trade and be proactive. If you are in for the long haul, hold and react accordingly.

Offline wesphily

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Re: Can't Short
« Reply #5 on: August 29, 2014, 03:33:24 PM »
I don't understand that math behind determining the bitusd value. I do understand trends which is how I have been trading bitusd successfully. I have stopped trading it since you all helped me to realize that the peg is not working currently.

Side Note: I think a feed in the client stating how much bitsud is vs a dollar would be extremely helpful. It would potentially guide others towards trading it closer to the dollar value.

Ggozzo

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Re: Can't Short
« Reply #6 on: August 29, 2014, 03:54:46 PM »

Side Note: I think a feed in the client stating how much bitsud is vs a dollar would be extremely helpful. It would potentially guide others towards trading it closer to the dollar value.

Yes. This would be great. If people could see where reality is, they are more likely to follow it.

I would always expect a slight variation. Maybe 1-2%. Depending on outside exchange fees.

 

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