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Offline Brent.Allsop

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When will we achieve next order of magnitude increase?
« on: September 03, 2014, 09:16:06 PM »


Through most if Bitcoin's history, it increased in value an order of magnitude in price 7 times, and all but one of those was in almost exactly 6 months.

See this historical graph:

http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2

I'm assuming the reason it has stopped this progression is because of Bitcoin 2.0, primarily BitsharesX.

And it seems that Bitshares is taking up this 10 times increase every 6 months where Bitcoin left off.

After all, most of us purchased our Genesis block Bitshares at around $0.005 per share right?  And the first bubble easily made it past $0.05 in about 6 months time.

My prediction is that it will hit $0.50 per share in less than 6 months, and that this rate will continue for some time.  Anyone have any arguments for a different view?

Also, just as I've been predicting, the price of Bitshares would be depressed until the Either sale ended, many people taking their 10 times profit and rolling into Either.  Now that is over, the price looks like it is starting to move again.












Offline tonyk

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Re: When will we achieve next order of magnitude increase?
« Reply #1 on: September 03, 2014, 09:24:13 PM »

Through most if Bitcoin's history, it increased in value an order of magnitude in price 7 times, and all but one of those was in almost exactly 6 months.

See this historical graph:

http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2

I'm assuming the reason it has stopped this progression is because of Bitcoin 2.0, primarily BitsharesX.

And it seems that Bitshares is taking up this 10 times increase every 6 months where Bitcoin left off.

After all, most of us purchased our Genesis block Bitshares at around $0.005 per share right?  And the first bubble easily made it past $0.05 in about 6 months time.

My prediction is that it will hit $0.50 per share in less than 6 months, and that this rate will continue for some time.  Anyone have any arguments for a different view?

Also, just as I've been predicting, the price of Bitshares would be depressed until the Either sale ended, many people taking their 10 times profit and rolling into Either.  Now that is over, the price looks like it is starting to move again.

I believe the average person 'bought' the initial shares for less than $0.005
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline Brent.Allsop

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Re: When will we achieve next order of magnitude increase?
« Reply #2 on: September 03, 2014, 09:26:24 PM »
I believe the average person 'bought' the initial shares for less than $0.005

Yea, I'm just rounding to the nearest order of magnitude.


Offline GaltReport

Re: When will we achieve next order of magnitude increase?
« Reply #3 on: September 03, 2014, 09:28:57 PM »

Through most if Bitcoin's history, it increased in value an order of magnitude in price 7 times, and all but one of those was in almost exactly 6 months.

See this historical graph:

http://canonizer.com/topic.asp/154/2

I'm assuming the reason it has stopped this progression is because of Bitcoin 2.0, primarily BitsharesX.

And it seems that Bitshares is taking up this 10 times increase every 6 months where Bitcoin left off.

After all, most of us purchased our Genesis block Bitshares at around $0.005 per share right?  And the first bubble easily made it past $0.05 in about 6 months time.

My prediction is that it will hit $0.50 per share in less than 6 months, and that this rate will continue for some time.  Anyone have any arguments for a different view?

Also, just as I've been predicting, the price of Bitshares would be depressed until the Either sale ended, many people taking their 10 times profit and rolling into Either.  Now that is over, the price looks like it is starting to move again.

Bolded part is quite plausible.  I compared the graphs for bitcoin and bitshares the last 30 days.  bitcoin starts dropping about a week before bitshares started it's climb.

Offline bitcoinerS

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Re: When will we achieve next order of magnitude increase?
« Reply #4 on: September 03, 2014, 09:33:33 PM »

I believe the average person 'bought' the initial shares for less than $0.005

I doubt it. Closer to $0.01 average for initial shares.
>>> approve bitcoiners

Offline Brent.Allsop

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Re: When will we achieve next order of magnitude increase?
« Reply #5 on: September 03, 2014, 09:35:48 PM »

I believe the average person 'bought' the initial shares for less than $0.005

I doubt it. Closer to $0.01 average for initial shares.

Can you provide some justification for this, which everyone will accept as fact?


Offline GaltReport

Re: When will we achieve next order of magnitude increase?
« Reply #6 on: September 03, 2014, 09:38:56 PM »

I believe the average person 'bought' the initial shares for less than $0.005

I doubt it. Closer to $0.01 average for initial shares.

Can you provide some justification for this, which everyone will accept as fact?

He is correct.  It was about $.01 or less.  I had no initial shares so I had to buy.

Offline Brent.Allsop

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Re: When will we achieve next order of magnitude increase?
« Reply #7 on: September 03, 2014, 09:53:11 PM »

I believe the average person 'bought' the initial shares for less than $0.005

I doubt it. Closer to $0.01 average for initial shares.

Can you provide some justification for this, which everyone will accept as fact?

He is correct.  It was about $.01 or less.  I had no initial shares so I had to buy.

Think that would hold up if I added that to wikipedia? "The opening prices of "bitsharesX was less than $.01, and we know this because GaltReport claimed it, and he knows because he didn't get any genesis shares so he had to buy afterwords."

Where are you guys getting these numbers?

Brent



Offline tonyk

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Re: When will we achieve next order of magnitude increase?
« Reply #8 on: September 03, 2014, 09:56:05 PM »

I hate to be this guy (again) but I will let those guys provide the numbers for their wrong claims.
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline sschechter

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Re: When will we achieve next order of magnitude increase?
« Reply #9 on: September 03, 2014, 09:58:55 PM »
Depending on what day you made an AGS donation, you got a different price.  If you donated the week before the snapshot, you paid a much higher price.  If you mined PTS in the first week, you paid a lower cost.  My unscientific estimate is that the average is closer to .01
BTSX: sschechter
PTS: PvBUyPrDRkJLVXZfvWjdudRtQgv1Fcy5Qe

Offline GaltReport

Re: When will we achieve next order of magnitude increase?
« Reply #10 on: September 03, 2014, 10:00:25 PM »

I believe the average person 'bought' the initial shares for less than $0.005

I doubt it. Closer to $0.01 average for initial shares.

Can you provide some justification for this, which everyone will accept as fact?

He is correct.  It was about $.01 or less.  I had no initial shares so I had to buy.

Think that would hold up if I added that to wikipedia? "The opening prices of "bitsharesX was less than $.01, and we know this because GaltReport claimed it, and he knows because he didn't get any genesis shares so he had to buy afterwords."

Where are you guys getting these numbers?

Brent

I will leave it at that. :) 

Maybe someone else can provide wikipedia quotes for you.

Offline GaltReport

Re: When will we achieve next order of magnitude increase?
« Reply #11 on: September 03, 2014, 10:00:49 PM »
Depending on what day you made an AGS donation, you got a different price.  If you donated the week before the snapshot, you paid a much higher price.  If you mined PTS in the first week, you paid a lower cost.  My unscientific estimate is that the average is closer to .01
+5%

Offline GaltReport

Re: When will we achieve next order of magnitude increase?
« Reply #12 on: September 03, 2014, 10:14:09 PM »
Okay.  July 21, 2014 I see price of .00002125 BTC from coinmarketcap.com 180 day chart. From coindesk.com I see a BTC price of $620 on that day so I think it comes out to $.013175 per BTSX.

Best I can do for now.

Edit:  Even lower the next day, July 22, 2014: .00001598 BTC and BTC $618 for $.00987564 per BTSX.
« Last Edit: September 03, 2014, 10:34:14 PM by GaltReport »

Offline Brent.Allsop

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Re: When will we achieve next order of magnitude increase?
« Reply #13 on: September 03, 2014, 11:34:57 PM »
Okay.  July 21, 2014 I see price of .00002125 BTC from coinmarketcap.com 180 day chart. From coindesk.com I see a BTC price of $620 on that day so I think it comes out to $.013175 per BTSX.

Best I can do for now.

Edit:  Even lower the next day, July 22, 2014: .00001598 BTC and BTC $618 for $.00987564 per BTSX.

Great, with those facts, nobody can deny the claim of the initial price.  But it's still not to far off my original assumption of $0.005, or just a rounder error.




Offline bitder

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Re: When will we achieve next order of magnitude increase?
« Reply #14 on: September 04, 2014, 02:00:59 AM »
Through most if Bitcoin's history, it increased in value an order of magnitude in price 7 times, and all but one of those was in almost exactly 6 months.

Could just be Mark Karpeles manipulating the [mtgox] btc market with his willy bot.

http://www.coindesk.com/bot-named-willy-did-mt-goxs-automated-trading-pump-bitcoin-price/
wallet_account_set_approval delegate.bitder 1

 

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