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Offline jokb235

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Stock market crash
« on: September 09, 2014, 12:11:20 AM »

Hey everyone. I'm new to Bitshares and was wondering what, if anything, would happen to BitsharesX if the stock market crashed?

Offline onceuponatime

Re: Stock market crash
« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2014, 12:18:53 AM »
Hey everyone. I'm new to Bitshares and was wondering what, if anything, would happen to BitsharesX if the stock market crashed?

Let's try it and see  ;D

Seriously, though, I don't know. It is possible that capital might flow into the bitshares ecosystem for a safe haven I suppose.

Offline gamey

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Re: Stock market crash
« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2014, 12:28:47 AM »

Short your bitStocks ?
I speak for myself and only myself.

Offline hughmanwho

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Re: Stock market crash
« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2014, 12:37:44 AM »
Note that this tends to happen anytime the US stops printing money.. which is supposed to happen in October.

Offline wrzkll

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Re: Stock market crash
« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2014, 12:43:44 AM »
Not likely at least for the foreseeable future with all the capital flowing back to the US looking for "safety" (Twisted, I know...). In the unlikely event of a crash, the dollar would rally as everyone would be getting margin calls and money would be pouring into the short end of the yield curve possibly driving t-bills negative which is a big no-no for the FED for numerous reasons.

Perhaps BitUSD would rally? Paradoxically, people would look for alternatives as they did with bitcoin in the aftermath of 2008.

Offline jabbajabbaつ◕_◕つ

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Re: Stock market crash
« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2014, 12:50:42 AM »
So the answer is:
No one fucking knows  :P

And i would hear this inside my head
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-Rqdgna3Yw
« Last Edit: September 09, 2014, 12:52:25 AM by jabbajabba »

Offline santaclause102

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Re: Stock market crash
« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2014, 01:00:08 AM »
Not likely at least for the foreseeable future with all the capital flowing back to the US looking for "safety" (Twisted, I know...). In the unlikely event of a crash, the dollar would rally as everyone would be getting margin calls and money would be pouring into the short end of the yield curve possibly driving t-bills negative which is a big no-no for the FED for numerous reasons.

Perhaps BitUSD would rally? Paradoxically, people would look for alternatives as they did with bitcoin in the aftermath of 2008.
I understand that the USD would go up. But I didnt really understood why Gold would fall when the stock market crashes. It always seems like everything falls which also makes sense since the fiat / debt supply overall shrinks. But is save heaven assets like gold also impacted negatively? I think gold would be relatively comparable to crypto assets in that scenario insofar as both are considered alternatives outside the "infected" financial system.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2014, 01:11:45 AM by delulo »

Offline wrzkll

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Re: Stock market crash
« Reply #7 on: September 09, 2014, 02:43:46 AM »
Back in 2008, gold had a major spike two days after Lehman Brothers filed for bankruptcy. The fear was real and money flocked to the metal. However, gold resumed its downward trend due to pretty much EVERYTHING being liquidated to meet margin calls during the worst of the crisis. Unfortunately, you can't look at gold like any other asset class because it is extremely opaque and the real action is done over-the-counter (OTC) where nobody knows what's really going on. One thing to note was that by November 2008 gold was backwardated which theoretically is not possible for a commodity (The way modern finance looks at gold) with an 80 year+ above ground supply. Backwardation usually implies imminent shortage which is usually seen in the grains market when a bad crop is announced. American Gold Eagles were also selling at a huge premium if you could find any...

Physical gold? Sure, a safe heaven imho (Regardless of price action)...Gold ETFs and other derivatives not so sure. Bitassets most definitely 8)

http://www.cnbc.com/id/26759053


« Last Edit: September 09, 2014, 02:54:10 AM by wrzkll »

Offline lucky331

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Re: Stock market crash
« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2014, 02:54:17 AM »
Hey everyone. I'm new to Bitshares and was wondering what, if anything, would happen to BitsharesX if the stock market crashed?

if stock market crashed, then a lot of people sold and are holding CASH.  let's hope those people are willing to take their action in cryptos.  :)

there's a lot of room for growth (and profit) in this space. 

Offline serejandmyself

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Re: Stock market crash
« Reply #9 on: September 09, 2014, 04:47:21 AM »
Hey everyone. I'm new to Bitshares and was wondering what, if anything, would happen to BitsharesX if the stock market crashed?

a party
btsx - bitsharesrussia

Offline eagleeye

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Re: Stock market crash
« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2014, 04:50:29 AM »
Interest rates are low (0% in the US).  We are in the 6th/7th inning of the stock market and economic cycle.  There may be corrections a long the way but wait till interest rates rise and then start falling, then get out or when interest rates peak. +5%

Offline oldman

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Re: Stock market crash
« Reply #11 on: September 09, 2014, 05:05:10 AM »
Hey everyone. I'm new to Bitshares and was wondering what, if anything, would happen to BitsharesX if the stock market crashed?

The impact would be understated if a substantial correction happens in the next year or two.

The pipe from fiat investments to crypto investments is very small; there is just no practical way to move substantial amounts of wealth into BTSX right now.

However, there is one scenario that merits consideration:

If a BTC ETF lists prior to a market correction, BTC will experience a sharp rise in value during a subsequent correction as it is very easy for fiat wealth to move into a listed ETF.

There is enough Bitcoin awareness among the investment crowd that many individuals and institutions will throw some money at a BTC ETF as they rotate to cash/gold/silver.

This flood of fiat investment could cause the value of BTC to pop $10-50k, perhaps higher if a mania sets in (everything is going down, BTC EFT up 1000%, buy, buy, buy!)

Folks holding BTC directly will be looking for a way take/protect profits... lots of profits. If the Bitshares marketing team has done their job, there may be huge demand for bitUSD/bitCNY/bitGLD/bitSLV and consequently the value of BTSX will spike.

Will be fun to look back on this in two or three years...

Offline Brent.Allsop

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Re: Stock market crash
« Reply #12 on: September 09, 2014, 08:50:40 PM »
So the answer is:
No one fucking knows  :P

What do you mean, "No one fucking knows?".  What else could happen, except for the leading crypto currency (and we all know what that is) to go to Pluto.

If you are a keynsean, like I am and most experts are, Crypto Currency will start amplifying the extremities of economic cycles.  We will start having depressions again.  In the past, the best place to isolate wealth from decline, has been US T bonds.  EVERYTHING else just goes down.  Governments then print more money to fill the demand, and pay for things like $2000 to destroy good cars, and building bridges to nowhere, bying air craft carriers for war, trying to get the economy to go again.

The only reason Gold didn't go up more, is because higher prices of Gold produce a LOT more of it, especially if it is expected by Gold miners, investing in more gold mines.


But now there is something that has never existed before.  Something of value with a truly limited supply.

The next time we have a "GREAT RECESSION" governments are going to try to repeat the process of spend us out of deflation, but they will no longer be able to do that, because of BitUSD.  And even better, by then, there will be even more reliable fixed value crypto assets that will not decrease in value, like BitUSD, but will freely increase in value, significantly.

The next "great recession", (I predict there will be another short, at least, depression) will be very different than anything in the past.  Everyone will sell EVERYTHING, stocks, real estate, cars, bonds, fiata currencies, people will stop eating, attempting to get any money they can, to put into BitsharesX which will be rocketing to Pluto.  And of course, the bubble will then pop, once everyone is finally starving to death, and must start selling some of their BiytsharesX to eat.  But things will level out somewhere around Mars.

























« Last Edit: September 09, 2014, 08:58:44 PM by Brent.Allsop »

Offline mf-tzo

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Re: Stock market crash
« Reply #13 on: September 10, 2014, 10:26:59 AM »
Quote
What do you mean, "No one fucking knows?".  What else could happen, except for the leading crypto currency (and we all know what that is) to go to Pluto.

If you are a keynsean, like I am and most experts are, Crypto Currency will start amplifying the extremities of economic cycles.  We will start having depressions again.  In the past, the best place to isolate wealth from decline, has been US T bonds.  EVERYTHING else just goes down.  Governments then print more money to fill the demand, and pay for things like $2000 to destroy good cars, and building bridges to nowhere, bying air craft carriers for war, trying to get the economy to go again.

The only reason Gold didn't go up more, is because higher prices of Gold produce a LOT more of it, especially if it is expected by Gold miners, investing in more gold mines.


But now there is something that has never existed before.  Something of value with a truly limited supply.

The next time we have a "GREAT RECESSION" governments are going to try to repeat the process of spend us out of deflation, but they will no longer be able to do that, because of BitUSD.  And even better, by then, there will be even more reliable fixed value crypto assets that will not decrease in value, like BitUSD, but will freely increase in value, significantly.

The next "great recession", (I predict there will be another short, at least, depression) will be very different than anything in the past.  Everyone will sell EVERYTHING, stocks, real estate, cars, bonds, fiata currencies, people will stop eating, attempting to get any money they can, to put into BitsharesX which will be rocketing to Pluto.  And of course, the bubble will then pop, once everyone is finally starving to death, and must start selling some of their BiytsharesX to eat.  But things will level out somewhere around Mars.

Well said...I think also the future will be something like that. I just hope that there is only an economical war and not a war with real weapons..

Offline jabbajabbaつ◕_◕つ

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Re: Stock market crash
« Reply #14 on: September 10, 2014, 10:45:31 AM »
So the answer is:
No one fucking knows  :P

What do you mean, "No one fucking knows?".  What else could happen, except for the leading crypto currency (and we all know what that is) to go to Pluto.

If you are a keynsean, like I am and most experts are, Crypto Currency will start amplifying the extremities of economic cycles.  We will start having depressions again.  In the past, the best place to isolate wealth from decline, has been US T bonds.  EVERYTHING else just goes down.  Governments then print more money to fill the demand, and pay for things like $2000 to destroy good cars, and building bridges to nowhere, bying air craft carriers for war, trying to get the economy to go again.

The only reason Gold didn't go up more, is because higher prices of Gold produce a LOT more of it, especially if it is expected by Gold miners, investing in more gold mines.


But now there is something that has never existed before.  Something of value with a truly limited supply.

The next time we have a "GREAT RECESSION" governments are going to try to repeat the process of spend us out of deflation, but they will no longer be able to do that, because of BitUSD.  And even better, by then, there will be even more reliable fixed value crypto assets that will not decrease in value, like BitUSD, but will freely increase in value, significantly.

The next "great recession", (I predict there will be another short, at least, depression) will be very different than anything in the past.  Everyone will sell EVERYTHING, stocks, real estate, cars, bonds, fiata currencies, people will stop eating, attempting to get any money they can, to put into BitsharesX which will be rocketing to Pluto.  And of course, the bubble will then pop, once everyone is finally starving to death, and must start selling some of their BiytsharesX to eat.  But things will level out somewhere around Mars.
well said
i hope this will happen.
BUT no one can calculate the exact outcome of such an event.
There would be too many unknown variables.
So no one really fucking KNOWS what would happen.  :P

 

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