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Offline mf-tzo

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Re: Why did Bitcoin not explode on Paypal news?
« Reply #1 on: September 09, 2014, 03:01:47 PM »
because all the Chinese trade bitshares  now maybe? or because bitcoin is slowly going back to $100 because bitcoiners realize slowly that there is no much demand for it and are slowly getting out? 

I am also curious about why bitcoin hasn't moved up though so if anyone has another theory it will be interesting to know..

38PTSWarrior

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Re: Why did Bitcoin not explode on Paypal news?
« Reply #2 on: September 09, 2014, 04:53:43 PM »
I say that the news are too new. Soon -> Moon :D

Offline oldman

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Re: Why did Bitcoin not explode on Paypal news?
« Reply #3 on: September 09, 2014, 05:02:51 PM »
This is going to require some tin foil:

Bitcoin is being set up for a pump by the fiat crowd - 'Wall Steet', hedge funds, private capital, etc.

Market sentiment expects a run up to $10k+ based on the 'exponential growth' charts that have been circulating.

Those charts are contrived and more than a little silly, but the masses have bought in and that is all that matters.

Once the run starts mania will set in quickly.

The fiat crowd is carefully staging the run to maximize profit; there is no other asset that can provide this type of ROI so easily/quickly.

Here is the plan:

1. Accumulate off-market (buy X coins) while suppressing cap through on-market operations (sell Y coins where Y << X)

2. Continue accumulation/suppression until fiat pipeline capacity increases substantially, ie. ETF lists

3. Cease suppression operations

4. Media campaign + large market buys

5. Profit

While folks are moaning and groaning about the next spike being 'late' and filling the message boards with endless pratter about FUD conspiracies, the fact of the matter is that the powers that be are doing every crypto investor a huge favour. They will maximize returns for themselves and consequently for everyone else.

Should the listing of an ETF coincide with a stock market correction it will be a perfect storm.

BTC could spike to $100k+ during a severe correction/panic if retail/institutional money wanted in. A hundred billion or so of fiat rotating from equities/bonds into bitcoin over the course of a few months would do it. Vast fortunes would be created over-night.

So there it is. Sit back and enjoy the show!





Offline Riverhead

Re: Why did Bitcoin not explode on Paypal news?
« Reply #4 on: September 09, 2014, 05:11:59 PM »
If that isn't what is really happening you have the makings of a great novel!

If too many people get rich it's just hyper inflation ::)
« Last Edit: September 09, 2014, 05:13:43 PM by Riverhead »

Offline yellowecho

Re: Why did Bitcoin not explode on Paypal news?
« Reply #5 on: September 09, 2014, 05:28:43 PM »
Quote
Why did Bitcoin not explode on Paypal news?

My guess is that it's because Bitcoin has very little merchant volume compared to its trading volume so while Paypal is a huge score for Bitcoin holders in terms of liquidity it means little in terms of adjusted value... IMO this would change if Paypal allowed users to buy Bitcoin with Paypal but I'd be surprised if that happened.  Also, Bitcoin doesn't rally with speculative 'news' much anymore... it rallies on actual implementation.  When Paypal integrates a BTC option there may be more movement.

IMO using Paypal for BTC kind of defeats the point of BTC.  BTC is decentralized, trustless, and anonymous while Paypal and none of those.  Paypal will likely be a great gateway but I won't be using it for the reasons previously stated.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2014, 05:36:30 PM by yellowecho »
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Offline jsidhu

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Re: Why did Bitcoin not explode on Paypal news?
« Reply #6 on: September 09, 2014, 05:43:01 PM »
http://www.cryptocoinsnews.com/paypal-steals-apples-thunder-can-spend-bitcoin-tap/

Why is price not reacting to this?

I dont think its touched its target... because of Litecoin. I believe ltc is headed under $3 and then downtrend is over... waves based on this theory have been playing out 100%.
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Offline gamey

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Re: Why did Bitcoin not explode on Paypal news?
« Reply #7 on: September 09, 2014, 05:45:17 PM »
Is there ever news that makes bitcoin grow much?

I've noticed that bitcoin is greatly impacted in the negative direction by news, but largely untouched by positive news.  So I am not sure there is anything special about the paypal news, just that this sort of thing doesn't really have that much impact on BTC ever.  If you can point out when a news item made BTC jump it'd be news to me.  Perhaps one of those Chinese rumors that they were reversing their stand on BTC, but otherwise I don't recall something having a significant positive effect on BTC.

Paypal is now available at the self-serve thing in home depot.  It is a good thing to have bitcoin accepted all over. 
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busygin

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Re: Why did Bitcoin not explode on Paypal news?
« Reply #8 on: September 09, 2014, 05:48:47 PM »
Higher adoption is bearish, not bullish, for BTC at this moment as it means just more opportunities for hodlers to dump. Merchants will definitely sell most of BTC received for fiat right away. The news would create a new buying pressure IF it became profitable for new users to buy BTC elsewhere and then pay in BTC for their purchases.

Offline Chuckone

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Re: Why did Bitcoin not explode on Paypal news?
« Reply #9 on: September 09, 2014, 05:49:48 PM »
Two points, I don't know what is the impact of each, but I would think it does have an influence on the price...

- Big industrial miners must sale a big chunk of all the bitcoin mined to pay the bills. I don't know the numbers, but there's approximately 150 blocks of 25bitcoin every 24hours that are mined, which is 3750BTC. At 75% resale, that means approximately 2815BTC/day (no source for that, just guessing)

- Merchants: When they accept Bitcoin as a payment, the companies like Coinbase sell those BTC immediately and pays back the merchant in fiat. This increases the number of BTC for sale.

Anyway, both are increasing the supply of BTC for sale. So right there you need a constant influx of new fiat money in the BTC ecosystem just to compensate for all those BTC for sale and keep price at equilibrium. So to have a rally and a significant increase in the price would mean significant amounts of institutional money coming in every day.


Offline oldman

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Re: Why did Bitcoin not explode on Paypal news?
« Reply #10 on: September 09, 2014, 06:30:24 PM »
If that isn't what is really happening you have the makings of a great novel!

If too many people get rich it's just hyper inflation ::)

Will be fun to look back on in a few years!

I think there's only a few thousand people/entities in the world that hold any substantial amount of bitcoin. The wealth concentration is obscene.

The velocity of fiat is another concern altogether. Once all this QE starts to move, look out. Could be a nasty bout of inflation.


- Big industrial miners must sale a big chunk of all the bitcoin mined to pay the bills. I don't know the numbers, but there's approximately 150 blocks of 25bitcoin every 24hours that are mined, which is 3750BTC. At 75% resale, that means approximately 2815BTC/day (no source for that, just guessing)

Folks seem to think many/most of these coins are sold on the exchanges and thus create selling pressure.

I strongly suspect the majority of newly-mined coins are purchased off-market by investors.

One interested sheik could fully absorb a large miner's output for years simply out of curiosity. Let alone hedge funds, sovereign wealth funds, institutional money... governments etc.

If GABI really is going acquire $200M in BTC they are sure not buying on the open market. There are only so many early adopters, and most that were willing to sell have probably done so.

If large numbers of coins were being sold consistently on exchanges someone would have tagged them by now.

So I keep hearing this, but as far as price/market cap is concerned I do not believe the daily mining output has much impact.


- Merchants: When they accept Bitcoin as a payment, the companies like Coinbase sell those BTC immediately and pays back the merchant in fiat. This increases the number of BTC for sale.

This is another common sentiment. There is merit in the near term, but there are only so many early adopters.

I have trouble believing that the handful (a few hundred? a few thousand?) of folks with substantial holdings can create enough sales volume to impact market price through BTC conversions.

What are these folks buying? How many are there? Really, how much are they spending and how often?

Relative to the amount of BTC conversion that is required to drop/suppress the market price? Every day?

I suspect most early-adopter types that would qualify for this thought experiment already have the vast majority of material goods they want and are into occasional luxury purchases.

Not buying sheets off of Overstock. Daily.

So while I understand where this sentiment comes from, I don't buy it.

The vast majority of post-sale conversions will be/are netted out by the purchaser re-buying spent coins.
« Last Edit: September 09, 2014, 06:33:16 PM by OldMan »

Offline donkeypong

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Re: Why did Bitcoin not explode on Paypal news?
« Reply #11 on: September 09, 2014, 09:50:42 PM »
There's no real reason yet for normal people to acquire and spend Bitcoin. If merchants can save money on it and they're able to pass on some savings to customers, then it may make more sense to use Bitcoin. Also, the infrastructure remains pretty clunky, even if it is improving. I can have a BTSX/BitUSD transaction confirmed almost instantly, whereas I have to wait 40 minutes with Bitcoin while my pizza gets cold.

Offline gamey

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Re: Why did Bitcoin not explode on Paypal news?
« Reply #12 on: September 09, 2014, 11:25:42 PM »

Markets are not something I understand that well, but usually positive news shows an immediate effect on stock prices.  Like near instantly, right? 

So why do we not see this with Bitcoin?  I just read several responses where people explain why Bitcoin is not going up, but why does it specifically not respond to market news like we might expect?  (Or does it and we don't notice?)
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Offline donkeypong

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Re: Why did Bitcoin not explode on Paypal news?
« Reply #13 on: September 09, 2014, 11:42:06 PM »
This wasn't a full-scale adoption by Paypal, just a limited test run using its Braintree unit. Should lead to bigger and better things.

Offline pioneer

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Re: Why did Bitcoin not explode on Paypal news?
« Reply #14 on: September 10, 2014, 04:01:56 PM »

Markets are not something I understand that well, but usually positive news shows an immediate effect on stock prices.  Like near instantly, right? 

So why do we not see this with Bitcoin?  I just read several responses where people explain why Bitcoin is not going up, but why does it specifically not respond to market news like we might expect?  (Or does it and we don't notice?)

Because we're in a bear market. This is true for stocks too.
When in a bull market: negative news has no effect, good news has a big effect
When in a bear market: good news has no effect, negative news has a big effect

And for those familiar with technical analysis; we're currently in the fifth wave of the Elliott cycle. DanV of Tradingview has famously predicted that we could need to go as far down as $120 before truly beginning another uptrend. He did this even when we were going up in May, arguing that unless we broke through resistance on volume, we were still in a downtrend. And we hit resistance, didn't go through on volume.. so we're still in a downtrend since December.
« Last Edit: September 10, 2014, 04:09:25 PM by pioneer »

 

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