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Offline bytemaster

How much is a new user worth?
« on: October 02, 2014, 10:14:16 PM »

In February 2014 it was estimated that at most 500,000 people actually own Bitcoin... that means that Bitcoin has a market cap of $10,000 per unique user....

If you could buy users for $200 each and the same network-effect rules applied then you could reach the size of Bitcoin's user base for a total of $100 million dollars.

Suppose there was a way to identify a unique user...
Suppose there was a way to pay a pre-paid credit card with BitUSD...
Suppose there was a way to track referrals for people who sign up to use this pre-paid card...

Suppose you gave everyone 10% cash back when they pay their pre-paid card with BitUSD (limit $100 off)
Suppose you gave everyone who referred them a matching cash bonus limit $100 per referral. 

Net result:  users buy $1,000 worth of BitUSD and spends it via the pre-paid card earns $100...assuming a referral they buy $1000 worth of BitUSD and cost $200 worth of USD...

Users who recommend 10 people who and buy and spend $1000 worth of BitUSD will earn $1100...

In the process users have achieved the following:
1) learned how to buy BitUSD and created accounts with various institutions
2) learned how to download and use our wallet..
3) learned how incredible the yield on BitUSD is...
4) learned how easy it is for them to spend their BitUSD via a normal credit card...

What percent of these users hang around and put more money into the ecosystem?   Do you think BTSX market cap goes up by $100 million dollars?

For $1 million dollars you could purchase 5,000 users... who must put $5,000,000 into BitUSD prior to spending it to earn $1 million dollars.   This would boost the market cap of BTSX by $15,000,000 via the BitUSD multiple alone....  now suppose a fraction of those new users decide to stay and earn interest on USD, etc, etc... they bring in their savings....

This would be the marketing strategy that could easily pay for itself...... It would have to grow the market cap of BTSX by $50-$100 million for the development fund to break even funding it.

Suppose we had Bitcoin level inflation (10% per year)... and we put that toward the referral system...  at today's valuation that would buy 30,000 users per year... at the valuation it would quickly grow to $600,000,000 it could buy 300,000 users per year....

If user valuation is even 20% of bitcoin's network effect ratio... that would be $600,000,000....  At this valuation you could spend $60 million per year buying *new* customers with free samples... and have a user base larger than Bitcoin.

So why will this work with BTSX and not our competitors?

1) The user experience is one of 0 volatility
2) The user experience is that of a bank with a check card that earns very high interest rates
3) The user experience is one of names without addresses. 

So you see... a bitcoin user would see a foreign currency "what's a bitcoin?" no interest and high volatility. 
Our users would see a very familiar system interface with dollars and interest with lower fees...

Yes... this would be game changing... yes... inflation in this case would yield a net gain for shareholders.

Suppose we already were good friends with people offering such a pre-paid card?
Suppose these friends already owned a large percentage of BTSX?

:o
« Last Edit: October 02, 2014, 10:23:08 PM by bytemaster »
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Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract between myself and anyone else.   These are merely my opinions and I reserve the right to change them at any time.

Offline emski

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Re: How much is a new user worth?
« Reply #1 on: October 02, 2014, 10:20:14 PM »
Looks Good!
However I think the user experience should be improved before presenting BitsharesX in such way.
Client should be polished and market rules finalized (at least temporarily) and clearly explained.

Offline biophil

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Re: How much is a new user worth?
« Reply #2 on: October 02, 2014, 10:20:20 PM »
Well now that's just unkind. Teasing us like this... Will this be the subject of your keynote? Do we really have to wait that long???

Offline bytemaster

Re: How much is a new user worth?
« Reply #3 on: October 02, 2014, 10:20:42 PM »
Looks Good!
However I think the user experience should be improved before presenting BitsharesX in such way.
Client should be polished and market rules finalized (at least temporarily) and clearly explained.

Clearly! 
For the latest updates checkout my blog: http://bytemaster.bitshares.org
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract between myself and anyone else.   These are merely my opinions and I reserve the right to change them at any time.

Offline bytemaster

Re: How much is a new user worth?
« Reply #4 on: October 02, 2014, 10:21:48 PM »
Well now that's just unkind. Teasing us like this... Will this be the subject of your keynote? Do we really have to wait that long???

I can't promise anything on timelines... no announcements at Vegas.  I already posted the outline of my keynote.

For the latest updates checkout my blog: http://bytemaster.bitshares.org
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract between myself and anyone else.   These are merely my opinions and I reserve the right to change them at any time.

Offline donkeypong

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Re: How much is a new user worth?
« Reply #5 on: October 02, 2014, 10:27:00 PM »
YEAH! Now we're talking! Some of us have been pining for a referral system with bonuses and stimulated demand for BitUSD. Why not put those things together? Eureka!

Offline Ander

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Re: How much is a new user worth?
« Reply #6 on: October 02, 2014, 10:29:59 PM »
Suppose we already were good friends with people offering such a pre-paid card?
Suppose these friends already owned a large percentage of BTSX?

Excuse me while I go panic buy more BTSX.
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Offline tonyk

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Re: How much is a new user worth?
« Reply #7 on: October 02, 2014, 10:39:03 PM »
Maybe I have had too much cool-aid already today.  :)
So, be prepared for a dumb question/statement...

Where is the inflation caming into play in all this... The development team believes in this (it seams)... I for one am ready to donate (fund) such effort (so I guess a lot of people will also)... So if it is set as a referral program (of kinds) a lot of non-inflationary BTSX should come into this.

PS
On a side note - BM can you please spread the good news a bit. Some of our hears might not survive such extreme emotional excitement, coming in short intervals....  :)
Lack of arbitrage is the problem, isn't it. And this 'should' solves it.

Offline Method-X

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Re: How much is a new user worth?
« Reply #8 on: October 02, 2014, 10:45:37 PM »
Finally!!!! To do this right, it needs to be residual. I wouldn't do it on a flat per referral basis.

Example

UserA refers UserB to BitUSD. UserB downloads the wallet and registers his account name to the blockchain with UserAs referral code.
   -The referral code can be the users account name that referred you.
   -UserA is logged in the blockchain as having referred UserB.

UserB uses the BitUSD wallet and makes 100 BTSX worth of yield.

UserA is rewarded 50% (or whatever) of said yield every 10,000 blocks.

Manipulation

There's nothing preventing UserA from also being UserB. This is true. It's also not a problem. From the networks perspective, it doesn't matter who is being paid; only that the DAC is generating revenue. If a savvy user wants to refer himself and save money on fees, let him. However, to discourage this behaviour, traditional referral programs require 5 - 10 unique referrals before a payout is made for the first time. True manipulation is impossible because all referrals have to be generating revenue for the DAC.

Tracking

DO NOT OVER COMPLICATE TRACKING. Use a simple referral code system that links up UserA and UserB in the blockchain when the user is registering his account in the wallet. Like this:



Make it so each referrer pays for the referee to register his account name to the blockchain. This way, users won't have to come to the forums and request 0.5 BTSX be sent to their account so they can send funds over from Bter. The more problems you can solve at once, the better!


Offline bytemaster

Re: How much is a new user worth?
« Reply #9 on: October 02, 2014, 10:46:02 PM »
Maybe I have had too much cool-aid already today.  :)
So, be prepared for a dumb question/statement...

Where is the inflation caming into play in all this... The development team believes in this (it seams)... I for one am ready to donate (fund) such effort (so I guess a lot of people will also)... So if it is set as a referral program (of kinds) a lot of non-inflationary BTSX should come into this.

PS
On a side note - BM can you please spread the good news a bit. Some of our hears might not survive such extreme emotional excitement, coming in short intervals....  :)

A funding program of sorts makes a lot of sense... though there is the free-riders problem where those that don't contribute benefit more than those who do... those who do contribute of course still see a greater return....

Anyway... these are just ideas of what is possible and what I am working toward.   
For the latest updates checkout my blog: http://bytemaster.bitshares.org
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract between myself and anyone else.   These are merely my opinions and I reserve the right to change them at any time.

Offline bytemaster

Re: How much is a new user worth?
« Reply #10 on: October 02, 2014, 10:48:53 PM »
Finally!!!! To do this right, it needs to be residual. I wouldn't do it on a flat per referral basis.

Example

UserA refers UserB to BitUSD. UserB downloads the wallet and registers his account name to the blockchain with UserAs referral code.
   -The referral code can be the users account name that referred you.
   -UserA is logged in the blockchain as having referred UserB.

UserB uses the BitUSD wallet and makes 100 BTSX worth of yield.

UserA is rewarded 50% (or whatever) of said yield every 10,000 blocks.

Manipulation

There's nothing preventing UserA from also being UserB. This is true. It's also not a problem. From the networks perspective, it doesn't matter who is being paid; only that the DAC is generating revenue. If a savvy user wants to refer himself and save money on fees, let him. However, to discourage this behaviour, traditional referral programs require 5 - 10 unique referrals before a payout is made for the first time. True manipulation is impossible because all referrals have to be generating revenue for the DAC.

Tracking

DO NOT OVER COMPLICATE TRACKING. Use a simple referral code system that links up UserA and UserB in the blockchain when the user is registering his account in the wallet. Like this:



Make it so each referrer pays for the referee to register his account name to the blockchain. This way, users won't have to come to the forums and request 0.5 BTSX be sent to their account so they can send funds over from Bter. The more problems you can solve at once, the better!

We don't have to worry about fake accounts because KYC is done by the card issuer and the user has to *SPEND* $1000 on regular merchants to get $100.   Thus it is a losing proposition. 
For the latest updates checkout my blog: http://bytemaster.bitshares.org
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract between myself and anyone else.   These are merely my opinions and I reserve the right to change them at any time.

Offline roadscape

Re: How much is a new user worth?
« Reply #11 on: October 02, 2014, 10:54:18 PM »
Make it so each referrer pays for the referee to register his account name to the blockchain. This way, users won't have to come to the forums and request 0.5 BTSX be sent to their account so they can send funds over from Bter. The more problems you can solve at once, the better!

This is a great idea. Especially if you could generate referral codes w/ specific amounts to "donate" to the referred users. This would make giveaways a piece of cake (e.g. "get 5 bitUSD for signing up with this code").
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Offline zhao150

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Re: How much is a new user worth?
« Reply #12 on: October 02, 2014, 10:55:40 PM »
support  bm
老子早就不想当代表了

Offline Ander

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Re: How much is a new user worth?
« Reply #13 on: October 02, 2014, 11:00:08 PM »
I would vote in favor of this inflation (share dilution), for this purpose.

Alternately the donation fund is a good idea.  Even though non-contributors benefit more, if its just a few percent then the difference is small and I think we would see plenty of contributions.
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Offline Shentist

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Re: How much is a new user worth?
« Reply #14 on: October 02, 2014, 11:04:20 PM »
Suppose - all this can be achieved without dilution and all of us can profit??

i will write my idea later, need to make it clear in english.

 

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