Poll

BitShares Music market cap (1 week after launch)

Less than 3000 BTC
3000-5000 BTC
5000-8000 BTC
8000-12000 BTC
12000-15000 BTC
15000-20000 BTC
20000-25000 BTC
25000-30000 BTC
30000-40000 BTC
40000-50000 BTC
50000-60000 BTC
60000-80000 BTC
80000-100000 BTC
100000+ BTC

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Offline bitcoinerS

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BitShares Music market cap prediction (Poll)
« on: October 07, 2014, 03:22:37 AM »

Based on stats for the first 27 hours of Notes pre-sale (~1.444 BTC/hour) if we were to assume same constant rate till the end of 60 days sale we would expect about 2000 Bitcoins. Since this represents 20 % of all Notes we would then guess-timate about 10,000 Bitcoins market cap for Notes at launch. Thoughts?
« Last Edit: October 08, 2014, 12:31:19 AM by bitcoinerS »
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Offline signingoff

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Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
« Reply #1 on: October 07, 2014, 06:31:01 AM »
It's crazy, the cap of btsx is 18000 btc.

Offline Riverhead

Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
« Reply #2 on: October 07, 2014, 06:34:43 AM »
They haven't even started marketing yet. The current bids are just from "insiders". I suspect it'll be much bigger.

Offline kisa

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Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
« Reply #3 on: October 07, 2014, 07:07:46 AM »
It's crazy, the cap of btsx is 18000 btc.

You mean PTS market cap is about 18,000 BTC? Because BTSX is some 180,000...
Since PTS give you a 10% stake in a new DAC, 10,000 BTC cap implies PTS would fall by ~0.15$ or $300k post Bitshares Music snapshot... Imho the drop will likely be ~0.5$ or $1m. A market cap of 5-10m$ at launch sounds reasonably safe, with much upside potential before some people would dump, leaving enough time for marketing. . I think that if launch was at 20-30m$, this would be rather tempting for pumpers and dumpers...  dumping after a pump with a price going below IPO usually leaves negative perception of a project and could demotivate holders and devs somewhat, so ideally should be reduced magnitude...
« Last Edit: October 07, 2014, 08:28:44 AM by kisa0145 »

Offline CLains

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Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
« Reply #4 on: October 07, 2014, 01:44:05 PM »
It's around 4 million. 4 million dollar at IPO means people see it having some decent chance at 40 million, at least that is how I am thinking when I invest crypto. I think crypto investors in general think like that, always looking for the exponential 10x potential for the long term.

Offline bitcoinerS

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Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
« Reply #5 on: October 07, 2014, 01:58:40 PM »
Average sale rate of 1.6 Bitcoin/hour for first 38 hours gives us current market cap estimate of: 1.6×24×60x5 ~> 11500 Bitcoins.
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Offline donkeypong

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Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
« Reply #6 on: October 07, 2014, 05:06:25 PM »
I'm not sure that's enough of a sample size yet. The beginning of the IPO period may not be a fair indicator of overall demand. I think average demand could settle a little lower than this, since some people were eager to get in on it. But there's also a strong possibility that "we ain't seen nothin' yet." If BitShares marketing and BTSX really take off in the coming weeks (before early December, when the Music fundraiser ends), those coattails could really lift Music's IPO donations as well. And if there are even a couple of well-placed articles on BitShares Music/PeerTracks, then people would understand just how exponential this DAC could become.

I can't wait to see this DAC in the Top 10, because it is such an awesome concept and model. I think it's going to attract a LOT more demand, either soon or over time.

Offline donkeypong

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Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
« Reply #7 on: October 07, 2014, 05:13:23 PM »
It's around 4 million. 4 million dollar at IPO means people see it having some decent chance at 40 million, at least that is how I am thinking when I invest crypto. I think crypto investors in general think like that, always looking for the exponential 10x potential for the long term.

x10? Naw. I'm looking for 500x from this one. I might start selling a few at 300x!  ;)

Offline bitcoinerS

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Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
« Reply #8 on: October 07, 2014, 05:14:59 PM »
I'm not sure that's enough of a sample size yet. The beginning of the IPO period may not be a fair indicator of overall demand. I think average demand could settle a little lower than this, since some people were eager to get in on it. But there's also a strong possibility that "we ain't seen nothin' yet." If BitShares marketing and BTSX really take off in the coming weeks (before early December, when the Music fundraiser ends), those coattails could really lift Music's IPO donations as well. And if there are even a couple of well-placed articles on BitShares Music/PeerTracks, then people would understand just how exponential this DAC could become.

I can't wait to see this DAC in the Top 10, because it is such an awesome concept and model. I think it's going to attract a LOT more demand, either soon or over time.

I am on the "we ain't seen nothin' yet." side of this prediction. :)
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Offline xeroc

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Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
« Reply #9 on: October 07, 2014, 05:39:45 PM »
Give BitShares a try! Use the http://testnet.bitshares.eu provided by http://bitshares.eu powered by ChainSquad GmbH

Offline bitcoinerS

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Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
« Reply #10 on: October 07, 2014, 05:43:32 PM »
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Offline G1ng3rBr34dM4n

Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
« Reply #11 on: October 07, 2014, 06:35:54 PM »
This may be covered in another thread, but super excited to see agsexplorer hosting the data for the Notes 60 day auction.

http://www1.agsexplorer.com/

Great work Boombastic!

Offline feedthemcake

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Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
« Reply #12 on: October 07, 2014, 07:09:06 PM »
This may be covered in another thread, but super excited to see agsexplorer hosting the data for the Notes 60 day auction.

http://www1.agsexplorer.com/

Great work Boombastic!

 +5% I felt a little sad when I didn't get to look at the AGS countdown after it ended. This is a strangely satisfying treat to me.

Offline liondani

Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
« Reply #13 on: October 07, 2014, 08:46:51 PM »
This may be covered in another thread, but super excited to see agsexplorer hosting the data for the Notes 60 day auction.

http://www1.agsexplorer.com/

Great work Boombastic!

 +5% +5% +5% +5%
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Offline clayop

Re: BitShares Music market cap prediction
« Reply #14 on: October 07, 2014, 11:13:43 PM »
Based on PTS price difference (between price before snapshot announcement and peak price), my prediction is 30,000BTC market cap. This means one of two: PTS owners will lose money or presale participants will earn money. I hope that the latter is right :)
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