Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.


Messages - starspirit

Pages: 1 ... 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 [61] 62 63 64
901
General Discussion / Re: Proposal - Significant Enhancement to Market Engine
« on: September 22, 2014, 10:02:11 pm »

Monday will change all of that.  We will create a trading bot that will buy all the usd it can short at 99.5% of market price.

There will be huge buy and sell walls right near the peg.   

Once those walls are proven then usd holders will consider the yield and utility and demand will come.

Is this reference to the market making bot made freely available in another thread? Are the walls expected immediately (now Monday is ending) or to build over time as more people use the bot? Or is it something else?

902
General Discussion / Re: Current BTSX share supply over 2 billion?
« on: September 22, 2014, 09:53:12 pm »
Can management of the supply be automated within the network to avoid future error or potential manipulation? I have no technical expertise here, just wondering as a user.

903
General Discussion / How to measure and market success of the peg
« on: September 19, 2014, 09:56:32 pm »
It would be useful to set up a place where everybody can follow a number of metrics regarding the evolving history of the peg, especially for usd. This could also be used for marketing.

Things I think would be useful to track in charts are:

 - history of transactions, represented as discount of premium to feed price
 - volatility of bUSD
 - correlation of bUSD to fiat USD vs other currencies or gold
 - supply of bUSD
 - volume traded in bUSD
 - bid/ask spread
 - volumes transferred in bUSD

thoughts?

904
General Discussion / Re: Proposal - Significant Enhancement to Market Engine
« on: September 19, 2014, 02:54:46 am »
Earlier I said that market makers do not help the market to move toward the peg. They are merely providers of liquidity around the market's equilibrium price, and only narrow the spread around that price wherever that is. They can only help to maintain the peg if that is indeed where the market wants to be. Nobody in this thread has noted or rebutted this comment. Is this important or not?

905
General Discussion / Re: Common Objections To BitShares X
« on: September 18, 2014, 08:03:35 am »
The BTSX collateral is there to protect the rights of all parties to be paid according to price movements in the bitAssets. So the rights to proper payment are backed.

However it does not back the actual value of the BitAssets in the same way that say the value of a share or loan is backed by the saleable assets of a business, or that a house loan is backed by the ability of a bank to liquidate the recuperate the value of the loan, or the way in which gold-backed currencies used to be redeemable for gold. If the market decided to value BitAssets at 10% of today's value, instead of at the peg price, the BTSX collateral does not alter that, it only ensures everyone is paid accordingly. So perhaps we need to be careful with what we mean by 'backed'?

The bolded is your conundrum.  What happened when those gold-backed currencies were suddenly no longer backed by gold?  People got screwed.  Trust was violated.  They no longer owned what they had been told that they owned.  Would those same people that got screwed tell you that the asset they owned was backed by gold?  Probably not.  In that light, I would posit that those currencies were NEVER truly backed by gold and the reason for this failure is simple; central management.  Now we have a decentralized system where an asset can be truly backed by another asset(btsx) in a completely decentralized and trustless environment.  We will see if it can stand the test of time.

That's a good point. Backing of any asset is more valuable to the extent it does not rely on trust in another party. Governments took away metals backing of currencies, companies can have fraudulent accounts etc. So a decentralised, transparent and trust-less system will be a vast improvement in our financial system. However, we should still be aware that in this case the BTSX does not back the value of BitUSD in a capital sense, or guarantee that its price behaviour will be at all similar to real USD, or even stable. It is assurance against counterparty risk only.

906
General Discussion / Re: A New Proposal of Interest for BitUSD Holders
« on: September 18, 2014, 04:03:35 am »
liondani, a quick look at my post history would show I'm on the side of a free market incentives. The OP for this thread proposed a complicated rule system that I was opposed to, and along the way I thought of a what I think is a better alternative given a rule-based approach.

If there are no rules or other mechanisms in place, and price is free to float anywhere, I cannot see any reason why the consensus should necessarily settle on a price around the peg. It could settle anywhere and constantly shift. It would then behave like any independent crypto. At the moment, being within 10% seems like an excellent result IMO.

In the end, I think there needs to be some sort of mechanism to ensure this consensus settles and becomes stable around the peg. I do not think any of the rules introduced to date achieve this, because they assume ex-ante that there is some sort of magic attraction around the peg price (a lot of which seems to rely on the principle of keep saying it till everyone believes it), and a little bump here or there will remove the current gap. Instead I think there needs to be a mechanism in place that financially affects the results to all parties of trading around that peg price specifically, not just any price the market consensus might instead settle upon. That I suspect is where the self-perpetuation idea mentioned in the white-paper might break down - it is a "holding yourself up by the bootstraps" concept that only works if the market has already permanently settled on the peg price as being the one and only right price.

To give the peg price such financial tangibility, some possibilities are: (i) a floating (interest) incentive paid from shorts to longs (or visa versa), (ii) a floating (interest) incentive paid from BitUSD borrowers to BitUSD lenders in a separate lending market where BitUSD could be deposited for lending, (iii) market exchangers who are willing to make BitUSD 1:1 fungible with USD, subject to an incentive. There may be others you might think of. But even in these cases, we need to be careful assuming things about what the market consensus (if there is even such a thing) might be.

I think such a mechanism would see confidence in the peg rise considerably, especially in outside circles, and then we see potentially massive interest and growth.

907
General Discussion / Re: Proposal - Significant Enhancement to Market Engine
« on: September 18, 2014, 03:00:27 am »
This proposal is adding to a "big book of rules" to scare people off, and for little gain in my humble opinion.

It is completely unnecessary to attract BTSX-bulls as market-makers. It is stated that BTSX-bulls can't easily be market-makers because in the absence of being able to cost-effectively open shorts they are forced to be long BitUSD. But why can't they just buy extra BTSX with other funds to compensate for the exposure lost in buying BitUSD. Simple! They can be long BTSX elsewhere and earn spreads as a market-maker on BitUSD. No complicated market rules are necessary!

Second, market-making does not ensure the peg. A market-maker does not in fact care whether the market is at the peg or not. They make money from the spread. If the market price is not near the feed price, market-makers can still make money but make no contribution whatsoever to whether the market trades near the peg or not. It is flawed to believe market-makers will help pegging. They will simply follow the market liquidity, wherever it is. You may be able to set up a bot to make money by "trading around the peg", but it is only theoretical if the market is not already at the peg - you will never trade any volume if the market wants to be somewhere else.

Is there a strong reason why the numerous and simpler ideas already around about a floating incentive between shorts and longs are being rejected?


908
General Discussion / Re: Common Objections To BitShares X
« on: September 17, 2014, 09:15:25 pm »

The BTSX collateral is there to protect the rights of all parties to be paid according to price movements in the bitAssets. So the rights to proper payment are backed.

However it does not back the actual value of the BitAssets in the same way that say the value of a share or loan is backed by the saleable assets of a business, or that a house loan is backed by the ability of a bank to liquidate the recuperate the value of the loan, or the way in which gold-backed currencies used to be redeemable for gold. If the market decided to value BitAssets at 10% of today's value, instead of at the peg price, the BTSX collateral does not alter that, it only ensures everyone is paid accordingly. So perhaps we need to be careful with what we mean by 'backed'?

Strictly speaking you right.  But this will happen only if the peg is not working in witch event the whole experiment is a failure. . So let rephrase it, if  the peg is not working your bitAssets could be in danger else your bitAssets are backed by real money.
 . To me the backing of BitshareX is the business behind,  and my short explanation for newbie is : BitSharesX is a virtual bank that lets users buy, sell and trade virtual assets that have the  valued of real world assets. In the process of creating those virtual assets people make money trading similar way like Forex. To me the difference is: What's backing a share in Western Union  or Google ? And for the crypto crowd my killer question is what is backing Bitcoin ?

Yeah, that question is great: "what is backing bitcoin?" To another crowd, you can ask "what is backing gold?" Though gold has the benefit that it's been highly valued for millennia...

Sent from my SCH-S720C using Tapatalk 2

You are all correct of course that other currencies in the modern age have dubious if any backing also, and value is subjective. I just think it can be a misleading claim to say for example BitUSD is backed without a proper explanation of what is meant by that.

909
General Discussion / Re: Common Objections To BitShares X
« on: September 17, 2014, 12:48:48 pm »
An objection I heard the other day is that BitAssets are not backed by anything.

With regard to the opinion (expressed by delulo above, but that I've heard elsewhere) that its OK because BitAssets are really prediction markets, not assets, I am confused. Doesn't a prediction market require a pre-determined point in time at which the result is verified, such that people's bets are estimates of the probability of the outcome? What outcome are BitAssets predicting? If there is no end-point, there is no guarantee of any outcome at all. I'm not sure how this overcomes the concern.

That's an interesting misconception. Actually, bitAssets are backed! They're backed by at least 1.5x their value in BTSX! To open a short position (akatkam create bitAssets) I have to put twice their value in escrow as backing.

Sent from my SCH-S720C using Tapatalk 2

The BTSX collateral is there to protect the rights of all parties to be paid according to price movements in the bitAssets. So the rights to proper payment are backed.

However it does not back the actual value of the BitAssets in the same way that say the value of a share or loan is backed by the saleable assets of a business, or that a house loan is backed by the ability of a bank to liquidate the recuperate the value of the loan, or the way in which gold-backed currencies used to be redeemable for gold. If the market decided to value BitAssets at 10% of today's value, instead of at the peg price, the BTSX collateral does not alter that, it only ensures everyone is paid accordingly. So perhaps we need to be careful with what we mean by 'backed'?

910
General Discussion / Re: Common Objections To BitShares X
« on: September 16, 2014, 11:27:59 pm »
An objection I heard the other day is that BitAssets are not backed by anything.

With regard to the opinion (expressed by delulo above, but that I've heard elsewhere) that its OK because BitAssets are really prediction markets, not assets, I am confused. Doesn't a prediction market require a pre-determined point in time at which the result is verified, such that people's bets are estimates of the probability of the outcome? What outcome are BitAssets predicting? If there is no end-point, there is no guarantee of any outcome at all. I'm not sure how this overcomes the concern.

911
Now that the yield has been introduced on USD, based on transaction fee pool, but USD is still discounted, I am wondering if a floating incentive paid from shorts to longs is still a future possibility or has this been shelved?

912
General Discussion / Re: A New Proposal of Interest for BitUSD Holders
« on: September 16, 2014, 12:13:48 am »
I just had a subsequent idea that levers off your principle of a floating R, but better satisfies my concerns that R always acts to sustain rather than distort the peg. What if you had a simpler set of rules, that if BitUSD is below the peg price, R could be steadily increased once every hour say, and if above, R could be steadily reduced every hour. The rate of increase or reduction at the end of each hour could further depend on how far the price is from the peg price, the further it is requiring more aggressive change. The increments would step down again as the gap tightened.

It should also not be required to have any limits on R, as if they are hit, it will only mean the peg will break again. We should be prepared for R to get very high if that is what is required to balance the supply and demand, given the view is that the peg is more important.
This would still require price feed.

The question whether R limits should be lifted is open to discussion. They are there for preventing short-term market manipulation.
Yes a price feed would be required, which ideally we would do without. But without some sort of reference to a feed price, any rules for adjusting R could just as likely be distorting the peg as aiding it. The only alternative schemes to this would involve having a way for the market to agree on the level of R that equates supply and demand. This is being explored in some other threads.

I don't think an unrestricted R could lead to market manipulation. Market manipulation can occur where few trades set a price for the entire market. In this case, R could not be outside where the market wants it because to drive it to that level would mean either buying large amounts way above the feed price or selling way below it, and the rest of the market will be glad to take the other side of the trade. The manipulator would make losses. Bit I could be missing something. Can you provide a scenario would a manipulator might be able to screw the rest of the market?
 

913
General Discussion / Re: BTSX Valuation based upon standard P/E ratio of 20.
« on: September 15, 2014, 11:42:38 pm »
I am a fan of the Bitshares platform, but lets keep our heads on.

First, there is no such thing as a "standard PE ratio". Valuation is much more complex than that, especially for a business in a highly dynamic area of innovation where leadership can shift quickly. 

Second, its way too early to talk pie-in-the-sky numbers when there are still very basic issues that need to be resolved, contrary to some other posts I've read claiming an early victory. At this point there is still no mechanism in place to ensure that BitAssets will remain close to their pegs. Last I looked the highest bid on USD was 11% below the feed price, for BTC 12% and for CNY 15% below. The current mechanism to generate yield on USD (being based on a transaction fee pool) could never ensure this pegging, and is effectively subsidised (I think unsustainably) by BTSX holders. Further, there remains very limited liquidity in these markets and high spreads, which makes them unattractive for traders and potential commercial users of USD. Yes, I know its all still early, and I don't want to be a wet rag. But let's keep our heads focused, continue working as a community to get this to work, prove it to the outside world and then the rewards will come, whatever they may be.

914
In particular I'd like to see the progress of daily volumes for each Bit Asset. In my mind that is a key indicator of 'usage' increasing over time.

915
General Discussion / Re: How can we short BitUSD?
« on: September 09, 2014, 08:08:36 am »
This thread raises a more general problem in that bids and asks need to chase the peg level as BTSX price changes. As the OP suggests, this can mean one is pushed out of line when the price moves, and prioritisation for shorts is given to whoever is online when a buyer over the feed price price happens to turn up. Also, because each order cancellation and replacement costs in fees, it is uneconomic to change orders as the price moves (especially if BTSX is rather volatile), meaning that the market is less dynamic and efficient.

So is it theoretically possible to introduce an order type (or market) where the order is relative to the feed price? It seems to me that down the track when people want to buy and sell USD without reference to what BTSX is doing in price, that's how many will want to trade it. I can imagine there might be some challenges with thinking about collateral requirements and the like.


Pages: 1 ... 54 55 56 57 58 59 60 [61] 62 63 64