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Messages - starspirit

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256
When margin calls are made against shorts, is the total position covered, or just enough to get it back to a target collateral ratio?

For example, suppose target BTS collateral (shorts collateral only) is 100% and a margin call is made at 50%. Only half the position would need to be closed to get them back to 100% coverage.

257
General Discussion / Idea: Flexible Collateral
« on: May 14, 2015, 01:13:55 am »
*** SHORT VERSION ***

- allow bit-Currencies to be backed by an assortment of on-chain tokens
- each token counts a certain percentage toward their total collateral requirement based on risk factors
- allows shorts to obtain funding for a diversified portfolio of holdings
- allows shorts to manage the composition of their collateral portfolio
- allows shorts to use their tokens to collateralise a general purpose loan
- allows shorts to still get BTS leverage if they like
- allows shorts to close positions from collateral instead of buying externally
- just an idea, don't know all what the practicalities are

*** LONGER VERSION ***

This may not fit at all with the direction BM wants to go, but I thought I would raise this concept as a hypothetical to explore.

There is no reason why bitAssets need to be collateralised by BTS. In principle they could be collateralised by an assortment of on-chain tokens.

Imagine a short maintains a locked collateral account that could hold BTS, bitUSD, bitUER, bitCNY, bitBTC, bit-bonds at various terms, maybe even UIAs, as long as they exist on the BitShares block chain. And imagine they are free to trade these against each other.

Each token counts toward their total collateral requirement based on a risk-based approach. So for example, if the bitAsset obligation were bitUSD, holding bitUSD in collateral would count toward 100% coverage. Holding BTS would count toward 33% coverage (making it equivalent to the current system) or 50% coverage (equivalent to BitAsset 2.0). The coverage ratio on each token would depend on specific risk factors such as liquidity/depth in the underlying market, volatility or other risk factors. Total coverage must add to at least 100%, and if it falls below 100% the short has their position called.

So for example, holding all BTS in collateral would require 2x collateral (assuming 50% as per BitAsset 2.0). While holding all bitUSD would only require 1x collateral.

At any time a short, having converted their collateral fully to bitUSD, could self-cancel their short with collateral held, rather than having to buy a bitUSD with external funds.

Shorts would be able to use leverage on a diversified portfolio of tokens, and have control of that portfolio within the bounds of their total collateral constraints.

The coverage ratios for each token could be periodically updated with notice to give shorts time to adjust collateral.

If a short is called, or if a cover is requested, their tokens are each automatically used to purchase bitUSD in market (if a bitUSD market does not exist in the token, there may be more than one step), thus cancelling their position. There are different ways of prioritising these conversions and returning residual collateral to the short.

A user would also be able self-create a short by posting any form of collateral that meets the Total Coverage requirement, and then selling the bitUSD in the market for USD. This effectively gives them a general purpose loan against their BitShares token holdings.

The borrower could also use the bitUSD to buy BTS if they wish, giving them the same risk profile as they have currently (leverage to BTS). But this would not be necessary, and open up shorting to a more general set of motivations.

I haven't yet thought about a number of more practical issues, just thought it might be interesting enough to raise.

258
General Discussion / Re: BitAsset 2.0 Requirements & Implied Design
« on: May 14, 2015, 12:14:26 am »
I would summarize it like this:  does cash pay interest?   do checking accounts ever pay meaningful interest? 
...[deleted]...
To get high interest bonds usually requires locking up your funds for a period of time in some kind of bond.   It normally entails some kind of risk. 
BM, you may be right that a yield is not required - I'm just trying to think through the bigger context.

US and European citizens might be deceived by today's low rates. Where inflation is high deposit accounts normally do require interest, as banks compete to offer competitive rates. If inflation expectations rose considerably in the pegged currencies, and there were no compensation, external at-call deposits would offer interest, and put bitUSD at quite a disadvantage, severely contracting its demand. I could be satisfied if BitAsset 2.0 were like cash, and an interest-bearing at-call deposit account made available in addition.

On the other hand, while global interest rates are so low, and crypto in a bear market, we need to also be able to deal with the possibility of an occasionally negative yield (income to shorts) to balance supply and demand. A cash option gives longs a way to avoid negative yield, and would basically lead to shorts wanting to close the market to escape their shorts. I don't like the idea of negative rates, but we do need to reflect the competitive environment externally.

In this case, it may not be sufficient to rely on shorts being incentivised by selling at a premium, if there is no way they can be sure of unwinding at a lower premium to reap the benefit.

I'm still open to the arguments either way, as long as all the ramifications are clear.

I know many solutions have been proposed including the use of interest rates.  Also, interest rates that float between positive and negative have been proposed and this could potentially be the solution.  However, I am a bit skeptical because many legacy markets, especially futures markets which bitshares seems to be more like, don't use interest rates for most assets. 
These external markets do reflect interest rates as follows. In CFD markets, users' accounts are credited or debited according to the funding rates available to the CFD provider and dividends on the underlying assets of their positions (less a spread). In futures and options markets, where there is a fixed expiry for settlement of both longs and shorts, the difference between the futures price and the spot (or "cash") price reflects the market's funding rates and dividend expectations till expiry. (I think a bitUSD is more like a CFD than a future.)

...The market should be as free as possible with the only requirement being that orders have to be executed within X% of the price feed.  Orders can be placed outside of that X%, but they won't be activated until the price feed comes within that X%.  If buyers want to buy, they buy.  If sellers want to sell, they sell.  If short sellers want to short, they short.  If not, then no trades take place.  To 'nearly' guarantee liquidity for asset holders, a floating market order at the feed price can be used.  In this scenario, I believe the risk of systemic failure would be greater than the risk of no liquidity.  Eventually liquidity will enter the system as users become more comfortable and believe it will work, but this will take time.
There is nothing to stop somebody else setting up a free bitUSD:BTS market without these constraints. When the free market price is outside the constraints of the constrained market, all the liquidity will migrate to the unconstrained market and trade at the free market price. Any other bitUSD markets would follow suit.

The bitAsset 2.0 system would work much better if we remove the proposed unlimited forced-settlement and just settle any positions below 100% collateral.  It's simple, more predictable, balanced and free-flowing.
If demand contracted relative to supply (a market overhang), and the market cannot force settlement, then price must fall below the peg. What is the limit to how far below the peg the market might go? We could argue that other longs may be incentivised to buy at a discount, but the problem is that they don't know whether they will be able to sell at a lower discount, or if the discount just stays indefinitely or expands further. This is analogous to the situation experienced on the short side today. You have said you don't mind deviation around the peg, but we don't know how far this could go.

However, as forced settlement can be subject to BTS market manipulation without appropriate rules in place, I think it is worthwhile toying with alternatives as well.  For example, we could let the bitUSD:USD market trade freely, and when the price of bitUSD:USD falls below parity, force closure of a block of shorts (with enough notice of timing put to the market to alert shorts, arbitragers, bargain hunter etc). The block of shorts selected and closed would then be forced to buy bitUSD on market. The block size could be determined with reference to the level of discount, volume, or depth in the bitUSD:USD market, and it may take several such blocks to get back to parity, but its guaranteed to happen eventually through the forced supply reduction. The selection criteria for short closures could be based on yield or collateral. This concept may have holes in it too, just an early half-formed thought.

259
General Discussion / Re: BitAsset 2.0 Requirements & Implied Design
« on: May 13, 2015, 03:57:01 am »
On other points:

So there needs to be enough flexibility in pricing to allow at least a 10% range.  If you attempt to maintain a peg closer than that it would bankrupt the system.     
I didn't get this?

The suggestions to use interest rates to regulate the peg and keep it "perfect" only make sense if the interest is at all meaningful or interesting to traders when the hourly volatility exceeds the annual interest. 
By construction it is at all times meaningful enough for supply and demand to equilibrate at the feed price.

Attempting to create a "one market rule to fit every traders needs" is the problem.   
I agree. I actually suspect the currency market might be better without traders, and supported by issuers with an income motive. Traders can operate in bond and other asset markets. But I think you're saying we can just have a bond market for yield, with no at-call interest market. I suspect we still need a deposit market too (or interest-bearing currency), otherwise users will just use real currency in interest bearing deposits rather than bit-cash for transactions.

260
General Discussion / Re: BitAsset 2.0 Requirements & Implied Design
« on: May 13, 2015, 02:26:45 am »
[Edit: Shortened]

Thanks BM for providing your views around yield.

Without yield, BTA 2.0 is effectively like non-interest bit-cash. While I do aesthetically like the idea of replicating traditional markets with full cash/deposit/bond options, I wonder about how stable both the peg and the cash supply will be without a mechanism to regulate supply and demand.

Firstly, I’m still struggling to see how we deal with high yielding currencies. If users are forced to lock it away in the bond market for yield, it won’t be used for transactions.

Secondly, although most of the time I think price would range between the 100% settlement price and some level of premium at which consumers stop buying, I can foresee some situations where it may become clear to the consensus that a bitUSD is worth meaningfully more or less than a real USD, as a result of risk or yield factors on either side. This could lead to rapid and severe contractions or expansions of bitUSD demand/supply as everyone either wants in or wants out. 

Examples include:

- if the external yield on the real currency rises considerably
- if coverage in the collateral pool becomes marginal and there is a meaningful risk of insolvency
- a regulatory issue around bitAssets
- counter-party risk in the real USD banking system
- a severe bear market in BTS

With a yield mechanism, supply and demand would still shift but more moderately. Of course, one might not like the swings in yield that such situations might cause anyway, that’s why this is a matter of preference, and open to debate.

The flexibility of yield also allows maximum tightness of the peg, which I think the market would see favourably. By suggesting this, I'm not claiming the price feed is a correct valuation of BTS, so I don't think the fuzziness of that underlying valuation matters. I’m only assuming that it is the best estimate of the instantaneous transaction price available, ignoring spreads. That is, if arbitragers or settlers wish to convert between bitUSD and USD using BTS, this is the price that gives them confidence of getting what they expect.

261
OK, I said up-front that the BTC IOUs are subject to counter-party risk. That does not make their intrinsic value zero, any more than money in the bank is worth zero. UIAs are shares in something, just like any other share.

The key point is can it be done in such a way, and risks minimised, that the market is comfortable with any residual counter-party risk. Nubits is subject to the custodial risk. They have 5 times what we have in bitUSD. bitReserve is subject to the risk of a completely unknown entity. They have  10 times what we have in bitUSD.

We have the dream of a perfect ideal. But the free market is under no obligation to fund our dream for as long as it takes. If funding dries up, the vision dies. If we want to be truly self-funding, we need to create value in the current market-place on the way to achieving our bigger vision. All I'm suggesting is we use the energy and brainpower in this community to meet current demands in the best way we can, and to lead the market toward something bigger.

[I'm not saying this is the idea to do that, I'm still just exploring it. I'm only saying I would not reject it on the basis of not meeting an ideal such as "must have zero counter-party risk".]

262
I think this is an interesting idea for trading assets like indices and stocks.

In the future when we have a strong bitUSD, bitEUR, bitCNY, I'd like to see the trading assets all denominated in those currencies, with margin accounts that are also denominated in the same currencies. I think this would be more attractive and familiar to traders than trading bitAssets denominated in BTS.

In that context, the settlements (which could be quarterly expiries for example) on these trading contracts could coincide with points in time where simple centralised feeds are possible. That could remove the need to rely on human-routed feeds. Continuous free-market trading could however take place right up to expiry, as there is no forced settlement that could harm any party till expiry. (Margin calls get covered at market, and its OK if that's not a "fair" price).

With bitAsset currencies like bitUSD itself, its maybe possible but a bit trickier because they need to be settled in BTS, which exacerbates the risk of BTS manipulation if settlement occurs in confined windows. With a more liquid form of collateral (such as a collateral token directly convertible to BTC) this would be less of an issue.


263
The entity that maintains the reserve would issue all the bitBTC as receipts for BTC deposits made. And it would destroy bitBTC received in exchange for returning those BTC deposits back to users. In both cases it would enforce an exchange of 1:1. So there is no balance sheet risk. It always holds as much BTC as it owes.

This works fine as long as the entity can create bitBTC out of thin air. However, this is not the case :)

It does not have to be bitBTC it can be an user asset.

Yes, that's more or less what I had in mind. I may have confused things (especially with monsterer) by labelling it bitBTC - its not actually a bitAsset itself. Let's call it UIABTC.

You can't have a pegged bitAsset be backed by a UIA for obvious reasons.

Can you elaborate? I would have thought that bitAssets could in practice be collateralised by any suitable on-chain token. Here we are talking about collateralising with a reserve-backed token as a specially designed collateral token, rather than the native ownership token (BTS) of the system.

264
monsterer, could you explain the mechanics here a bit further, as it could be the simplest starting point as a stepping stone to a more distributed trust system. My understanding is that a gateway only retains enough inventory to facilitate transactions. In this case, a potentially large backing reserve would need to be held for all the bitBTC issued. So for example:

Yes, this is true - you have to trust that the bridge will be able to satisfy any demand for redemption, which isn't usually designed into their business model because they need to keep 50/50 reserves to remain price risk neutral.

You'd need a custom bridge which would accept BTC and hand out bitBTC and guarantee to hold onto it. But such an endeavour would be very risky for the bridge owner because the bitBTC must come from somewhere, and it's price is not 1:1 with BTC.
The entity that maintains the reserve would issue all the bitBTC as receipts for BTC deposits made. And it would destroy bitBTC received in exchange for returning those BTC deposits back to users. In both cases it would enforce an exchange of 1:1. So there is no balance sheet risk. It always holds as much BTC as it owes.

The only risk is if the reserve is compromised through hacking, fraud, malfeasance etc. This is the counter-party risk that bitBTC owners bear, and the risk that would critically need to be minimised in time through the best practices and tools available.

There may also be a regulatory risk with this reserve approach, of that I'm not sure.

265
I would like to better understand the process by which new designs (e.g. bitAssets) or other code gets introduced into BitShares. My background is financial not coding, so I'm admittedly a layman on this topic.

- Where does the BitShares code reside (for example, the trading engine)? Is it all in the client? Is there separate code used by the block-producing nodes, and how is it different? Does common code also sit elsewhere?

- If there is a major code change, who directs the propagation of this change through the network and how? Is it users, delegates, or both? Does this acceptance happen by simply downloading a new client version?

- In practice, how do all the developers agree on the code change? Is somebody responsible for vetting and testing all the changes made before a new version is released?

- If there were competing developers or development teams, that might produce competing client versions, how is a consensus formed within the community on which one will be supported? In practice, is it possible to even have developers compete on version design, or does this need to be a coordinated effort?

Sorry if these questions don't make complete sense.

266
General Discussion / Re: Loyalty Rewards Program
« on: May 12, 2015, 05:37:00 am »
It should be noted that by locking up BTS of long term holders it will not be available for other areas of adding value in the system. For example, it will not be available as collateral for bitAssets, and potentially restrict growth there, especially as many shorts are actually long term holders.

267
Stakeholder Proposals / Re: Paid Workers Proposal for Review
« on: May 12, 2015, 05:34:59 am »
I like the idea of not forcing workers and delegates to be signers (witnesses). But I feel the witness/worker/delegate role split is possibly too prescriptive. Ultimately we need to allow for many different forms in which people may add value to the system and community, and allow stakeholders to empower them. I suspect that in very little time we may be finding many cases of such people who do not fit any of these 3 prescribed roles.


268
General Discussion / Re: Loyalty Rewards Program
« on: May 12, 2015, 04:02:01 am »
I like the current free market where any delegate proposal can get voted up by stakeholders. But I would not vote for this. As owners, we should not be looking to reward our own loyalty - we should look at rewarding the loyalty of customers who will generate value for us.

I would prefer time spent on complementary non-dilutive solutions to funding development work. Bounties, angel funds, project shares, etc...

269
General Discussion / Re: BitAsset 2.0 Requirements & Implied Design
« on: May 12, 2015, 02:04:04 am »
You can short to yourself and buy BTS on an exchange, but all that does is place a bet that you think the BTA:BTS price will return to the feed. There is no arbitrage and thus you are not helping the market become efficient. One can just as easily bet that it will move away from the feed. Why would one strategy be preferred over the other?

Answering my own question, if BTS are expected to be more valuable tomorrow than they are today (measured in real USD), I will want to leverage as much bitUSD as possible to get them. That force continues until I hit the feed and people can start calling me. That is the restoring force that was missing, and will fix this model. bitUSD:realUSD spread is now defined and is a function of the rate of growth of BTS, volatility, and exchange risk.

It's a catch-22: BTS needs the feed to be enforced to be profitable, but in order for the feed to be enforced BTS must be profitable. I think that's fine, if more BTS are destroyed in fees than are given to block producers/developers, then it is "profitable"

Yes there will be BTS bulls who want to leverage themselves and hence create bitUSD.  However in a stock market, assuming information symmetry, the current price is supposed to reflect all future considerations.  Hence in general the chances that any stock or BTS will go up or down is considered to be 50/50 when considering volatility risk.  (Random walk & efficient market theory..Note: I'm not a big fan of efficient market theory, but it provides some guidance)  The desire to create bitUSD may not be that strong in a neutral market and most may opt to just buy more BTS instead.

In bull markets, I can see demand to create bitUSD increase significantly due to market psychology.  In bear markets, the available bitUSD will shrink significantly for the same reason.  You can see what happened with the current system: http://coinmarketcap.com/assets/bitusd/

In Nov '14 the bitUSD float started at $1 million...went down below $500k in Feb '15, and in April '15 it went below $200k, and now it's around $150k with bitUSD selling at a premium.   A bear market exacerbates bitUSD creation.  Also increased consumer/merchant adoption of bitUSD will generally compound the downward pressure.  Sure in the long run, BTS should go up with more transaction fees and adoption, but in the short run the added pressure to buy bitUSD may keep downward pressure on BTS prices. Just a theory.  I think that may be what was happening with bitCNY.  There was good adoption and a premium for bitCNY, but less & less availability especially with fewer incentives to create bitCNY. 

In a neutral market with expectations of volatility, I think the forced settlement feature makes it disadvantageous to create bitUSD.  It creates an imbalance in the CFD contract.  The owners of bitUSD can call for an unlimited amount of BTS at the price feed without affecting the market pricing.  I even think there could be manipulation as I mentioned earlier.  It seems bitUSD shorts are at the beckon call of the longs and can be squeezed out at any time.  Over time I think the bitUSD shorts will learn the advantages bitUSD longs have (just like the current design) and be reluctant to short.  While the system may seem to work well in bull markets, in neutral or bear markets the flaws may show up. 

My preference would be to just settle all short bitUSD positions at the bid that fall below 100% collateral.  Hence there would be a natural flow of settlement rather than calculated, abrupt, potentially massive forced settlement maneuvers from bitUSD longs. 

(Note: I may even prefer a daily settle of the entire bitUSD float at the price feed rather than an option of unlimited forced settlement at the price feed at anytime, but I would have to think about it more and it would probably be too much of a burden on the market engine anyways.)

BTW for those BTS bulls this past year, what has been your experience with creating bitUSD?   Do you care about forced settlement?

Thoughts in general?

merivercap & others, since BM first suggested it, I have been open to the view that removing the yield from bitAssets might be feasible. But the more I consider the issues you raise, the more I am leaning back to the view that the ideal would be to have a two-way payment mechanism (positive or negative "yield") between longs and shorts, that would allow any supply-demand imbalances in any market conditions to always be reconcilable at the peg price. As you are aware, I've already presented methods that may enable this, such as https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,15880.0.html and  https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php/topic,16029.msg205338.html#msg205338. These have not been widely reviewed at this stage.

In theory, if the external interest rate available on a currency is higher than the internal rate, the arbitrager (with existing BTS inventory) can earn profit by shorting bit-Currency, selling BTS outside and investing the real currency proceeds into an interest-bearing deposit. In a mature market, this should ensure that interest rates, within the constraint of arbitrage costs, are aligned with external rates, whether positive or negative. In that way, the potential for negative rates on the bit-Currency should not make the bit-Currency relatively unattractive to the real currency. Arbitrage would need to be encouraged in a more immature market though to not hinder its growth.

The biggest problem that certain members such as yourself have had with my yield-based system is the settlement at the price feed, which has been considered unnecessary by many in the longer term, and prone to price feed distortions. I maintain that a price feed is essential, but I do acknowledge the practical issues in managing it. Its worth noting though that this latest bitAsset 2.0 iteration also now features instantaneous forced settlement at the price feed, which is much closer to my own suggestions. The main difference is that, if price feed manipulation does occur, in this system it is always longs benefiting from shorts, whereas in my whitepaper, that distortion could run either way.

In thinking about the manipulation and other price feed issues, I've come up with some further suggestions that I will need to make in another post.

270
monsterer, xeroc, are you saying we can't do this yet, or that the ideal way of doing it (ACCT) is not available yet? To get commercial product to market, there are always trade-offs to be made. A company can go broke waiting to achieve the ideal.

There is no trust free way of doing this currently. If you don't mind that compromise and if you could use a backing of bitBTC instead of BTS for other bitAssets, then you could simply use both metaexchange / blocktrades for redemption.
monsterer, could you explain the mechanics here a bit further, as it could be the simplest starting point as a stepping stone to a more distributed trust system. My understanding is that a gateway only retains enough inventory to facilitate transactions. In this case, a potentially large backing reserve would need to be held for all the bitBTC issued. So for example:

User sends real BTC to pool in return for a new bitBTC, real BTC retained in reserve
User sends bitBTC to pool to be destroyed, for a real BTC sent back from the reserve

The key would be to have strong controls on the integrity of the reserve.



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