I think first we should define who has the final saying on the outcome of an event. Witnesses, committee? Or does that add a work overload they they shouldn't have? Maybe if we create a new type of "status" or account type, like Prediction Witnesses or Oracles.
All of them should report the same outcome, the correct one.
People will argue against that saying with Augur lots of people decide it (if I got it right) and it's more decentralized.
We can counter that argument that shareholders can vote in and out Oracles who provide the correct outcomes.
I think the problem here is the incentive. In Augur or any other system, Oracles should have an incentive to provide the correct outcome. With BitShares we don't have that atm I think.
Possible solutions:
- They earn bts like witnesses for their efforts
- They earn a % of all the winnings of a certain event.
Say there's a prediction market about US Presidentials. Person P wins and there's an X amount to be distributed to all who participated on the market. a % of that could be divided through all the Oracles maybe?