Let's talk - decentralized betting/prediction market! Possibility of a next FBA!

[TravelsAsia]

I'm curious how this approach compares to Augur:

http://augur.link/augur.pdf


I'm working on a business around MUSE which provides incentives for people to get involved in Artist Coins as well as highlighting the top trending artists on the system. Think of it as the place to get the scoop before digging into the Peertracks system.

  If there was a BitShares Prediction Market, that would be a service that my potential customers would see as a natural fit. 

Example: Will the band SuperCool reach the top 20 trending chart by March 1st, 2016?

If I was able to take a small referral fee for that traffic, even better.

[abit]

Just do it.

[MrJeans]

The probability of obtaining a bet to settle could be based on your percentage holding of the asset.
This could be 'gamed' where a large stake holder colludes with others who dispute the bet.
Perhaps some formula that takes both stake holding and reputation into account.

[lil_jay890]

What I was thinking is this:

-I create a website where people can create there own bets.
-User A creates a bet with an expiration time (Packers vs Redskins for 2 bitUSD by 10pm 1/10/2016)
-This bet is displayed on the website for anyone to take (only 1 user can take the bet for 2 bitUSD)
-Once the bet expiration time expires, an email notification is sent to each player to settle there bet within 24hrs
-If both players agree on the winner, the money is released from escrow, and sent to the winning player.  Each player can rate each other as well.
-If players disagree, the bet is randomly sent to a UIA holder to make the determination,  The UIA holder receives 10% of the bet for work done. Basically 2 of 3 escrow.
-The UIA holder can also rate each player.
-The UIA would hold value because of it's ability to settle bets and make money.  UIA holders would also be incentivised to make correct decisions in order to attract more players and settle more bets correctly.

I know there are some holes in this, and I believe it needs to be at least somewhat centralized.  Please point out any improvements or show stoppers you see in this.

but the guy with the website could be charged responsible, this is the reason why i am looking into ways, that this can be run total without the need of a website etc.

- just a market on our client - a betting market

why do you limit it to 1 vs 1 ?

I agree with the part where the guy with the website could be charged with operating a gambling ring, but could this be hosted on a vps?  Could multiple web pages in different countries with different gambling laws host their own versions of the webpage?

I limit it to 1 vs 1 because it allows for the 2 people to rate each other and create a reputation.  People with higher reputations will be more likely to get the other side of their bets taken.  It also would allow 2 of 3 escrow for winner determination, as each player would be a signer.  If they don't agree, the bet description is sent to a random UIA holder to make the judgement (and collect 10% of the bet).  The UIA holder would be the 3rd escrow agent.

[Shentist]

What I was thinking is this:

-I create a website where people can create there own bets.
-User A creates a bet with an expiration time (Packers vs Redskins for 2 bitUSD by 10pm 1/10/2016)
-This bet is displayed on the website for anyone to take (only 1 user can take the bet for 2 bitUSD)
-Once the bet expiration time expires, an email notification is sent to each player to settle there bet within 24hrs
-If both players agree on the winner, the money is released from escrow, and sent to the winning player.  Each player can rate each other as well.
-If players disagree, the bet is randomly sent to a UIA holder to make the determination,  The UIA holder receives 10% of the bet for work done. Basically 2 of 3 escrow.
-The UIA holder can also rate each player.
-The UIA would hold value because of it's ability to settle bets and make money.  UIA holders would also be incentivised to make correct decisions in order to attract more players and settle more bets correctly.

I know there are some holes in this, and I believe it needs to be at least somewhat centralized.  Please point out any improvements or show stoppers you see in this.

but the guy with the website could be charged responsible, this is the reason why i am looking into ways, that this can be run total without the need of a website etc.

- just a market on our client - a betting market

why do you limit it to 1 vs 1 ?

[bytemaster]

What I was thinking is this:

-I create a website where people can create there own bets.
-User A creates a bet with an expiration time (Packers vs Redskins for 2 bitUSD by 10pm 1/10/2016)
-This bet is displayed on the website for anyone to take (only 1 user can take the bet for 2 bitUSD)
-Once the bet expiration time expires, an email notification is sent to each player to settle there bet within 24hrs
-If both players agree on the winner, the money is released from escrow, and sent to the winning player.  Each player can rate each other as well.
-If players disagree, the bet is randomly sent to a UIA holder to make the determination,  The UIA holder receives 10% of the bet for work done. Basically 2 of 3 escrow.
-The UIA holder can also rate each player.
-The UIA would hold value because of it's ability to settle bets and make money.  UIA holders would also be incentivised to make correct decisions in order to attract more players and settle more bets correctly.

I know there are some holes in this, and I believe it needs to be at least somewhat centralized.  Please point out any improvements or show stoppers you see in this.

I really like this simple approach.

[lil_jay890]

What I was thinking is this:

-I create a website where people can create there own bets.
-User A creates a bet with an expiration time (Packers vs Redskins for 2 bitUSD by 10pm 1/10/2016)
-This bet is displayed on the website for anyone to take (only 1 user can take the bet for 2 bitUSD)
-Once the bet expiration time expires, an email notification is sent to each player to settle there bet within 24hrs
-If both players agree on the winner, the money is released from escrow, and sent to the winning player.  Each player can rate each other as well.
-If players disagree, the bet is randomly sent to a UIA holder to make the determination,  The UIA holder receives 10% of the bet for work done. Basically 2 of 3 escrow.
-The UIA holder can also rate each player.
-The UIA would hold value because of it's ability to settle bets and make money.  UIA holders would also be incentivised to make correct decisions in order to attract more players and settle more bets correctly.

I know there are some holes in this, and I believe it needs to be at least somewhat centralized.  Please point out any improvements or show stoppers you see in this.

[Shentist]

We can already do this on blockchain all that is necessary is a little UI work in the wallet.  Bet properties can be published on the blockchain via CUSTOM operation.

You would need to do LSMR prediction markets to justify a FBA.

nice to hear that!

i think it would be best if we are

"throwing as many stones as possible"

one stone will hit something huge

[bytemaster]

We can already do this on blockchain all that is necessary is a little UI work in the wallet.  Bet properties can be published on the blockchain via CUSTOM operation.

You would need to do LSMR prediction markets to justify a FBA.   

[CoinHoarder]

Interestingly I had some thoughts about almost exactly the same idea yeaterday. Lets have a talk someday this week

Edit: everything needed for binary prediction markets is already there

That's funny you were thinking about this too! I think this avenue should be further explored- it could have wide reaching implications for Bitshares (in of course an extremely positive way.) There are so many things that could be built on top of Bitshares EASILY if this could be made to work.

Anyone that knows a little Javascript could make an addon or plugin for Bitshares.

[xeroc]

Interestingly I had some thoughts about almost exactly the same idea yeaterday. Lets have a talk someday this week

Edit: everything needed for binary prediction markets is already there

[CoinHoarder]

How would he contract be created? Would this be a new uia? Would the platform be completely decentralized?

this is the point i want to talk.

could it be made possible with our account system or do we need new stuff to coded to create something like this.

Possibly one or a combination of those ideas combined with this:

I've been wondering if applications could be built on top of Bitshares that require off chain communication (like a troll box) by using WebRTC and making the original "handshake" on the blockchain. The way I understand it, WebRTC requires an initial handshake to be performed on by some centralized service. I posit it may be possible to do this handshake on the Bitshares blockchain. After the initial handshake, all communications between web browsers is decentralized. It would be a blockchain-less top level of Bitshares in which javascript applications or "plugins" could be built. It would allow people to easily build apps on top of Bitshares without stakeholder approval... truly opening the floodgates "ethereum-style"... allowing anyone to develop anything. You could also add the capability for the program/plugin/app write to the blockchain to add extra functionality, but that would be optional depending on each certain programs/plugins needs.

https://vimeo.com/108532169

[lil_jay890]

How would he contract be created? Would this be a new uia? Would the platform be completely decentralized?

this is the point i want to talk.

could it be made possible with our account system or do we need new stuff to coded to create something like this.

I've been thinking about this topic for a few months now... I have a few solutions for the end of bet determination and payout, but I'm stuck on how the bet will actually be published.  I would like to keep it fully decentralized, but it seems this part is where the centralization needs to be in order to keep costs contained.

[Shentist]

How would he contract be created? Would this be a new uia? Would the platform be completely decentralized?

this is the point i want to talk.

could it be made possible with our account system or do we need new stuff to coded to create something like this.

[lil_jay890]

How would he contract be created? Would this be a new uia? Would the platform be completely decentralized?