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Messages - oldman

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316
General Discussion / Re: BitUSD currently paying more than 1.5% APR
« on: October 01, 2014, 03:03:25 am »

I would be very skeptical of anyone offering me 5% to hold USD - what's the catch?


And that would be my cue to explain DACs. .... after that it's all numbers; 5% is greater than 1.5%, which is greater than 0.25%, no matter how you slice it

Your explanation of DAC's would be met with skepticism by the vast majority of investors, at least for next few years.

5% yields are expected on relatively high-risk equities/bonds... but not on cash.

I'm not saying the yield should not be 5% or greater - but I am saying that right out of the gate a lower yield is going to present better.

Now, if in a couple years bitAssets gain traction/acceptance and the yield climbs with transaction volume the result would be a spectacular flood of capital seeking low risk and protection from inflation.

Imagine the hordes of boomers that are retiring and need live off of their savings: bitUSD at 5% would be a Godsend!

317
General Discussion / Re: mesh networking, last mile problem, and BTSX
« on: October 01, 2014, 02:53:03 am »
So all we need is BM to combine BTSX, Storj, Maidsafe and Firechat into a global meshnet protocol that can connect any Bluetooth/WiFi device.

Throw in DAC to operate/maintain a bunch of those Facebook sub-orbital drones and/or microsats for continental inter-connectivity.

I mean really, what's he going to do with all the spare time once Bitshares is off and running?

318
General Discussion / Re: BTSX vs. bitAssets market cap
« on: October 01, 2014, 02:25:37 am »

- Thus at my very rough assumptios trading + payment fees for 150bn stock of bitUSD would be around $7.5bn p.a. => BTSX P/E ~ 400 / edit: 200 /at market cap of $3trn / edit: $1.5trn / required for that... well, then a profitable DAC should perhaps have a reasonable P/E of 400 /edit: 200/?

Another question is BM says that demand for bitUSD will drive BTSX market value - agree with that. Still, BTSX market cap has to be paid for with USD. For producing 150bn bitUSD, the entire /edit: 50% of/ FED balance sheet would be required to be paid for BTSX market cap. In a similar fashion, (-> OldMan) for issuing $150bn worth of bitCNY, all / edit: 50% of/ FX reserves of People's Republic of China would be required for an extra BTSX capitalization. Ultimately, for issuing $750bn worth of bitAssets (incl. BitEUR, bit GLD, ..., etc), the entire / edit: 50% of / market capitalization of S&P 500 ~ /edit: 50% of / annual US GDP would have to be invested into capitalization of BTSX... Well so should it be, why not? :)

Kudos for throwing some numbers at my pumping efforts! A bitAsset attracting value in the 100s of billions is certainly a bit optimistic... now.

What I am trying to impress upon folks is that BTSX is not going to attract value in the same manner as BTC - by competing with other assets.

BTSX can attract value by adding value to all existing and future assets... simultaneously.

To invest in BTC requires one to buy BTC instead of another asset.

To invest in bitAssets requires no such sacrifice by the investor.

bitAssets allows investors to have their cake and eat it too; all the benefits of crypto layered on top of any asset.

BTSX is a storm gathering - a perfect storm.

To wander a bit:

Generation X and Y are refusing to invest in traditional markets (equities and bonds) because of the 2000/2007 crashes and obscene levels of corruption in finance and government.

There are hundreds of billions parked in debt and cash. Literally hundreds of billions just sitting, waiting for a place to go.

Gen X/Y are smart - they know they need to invest, they've watched their boomer parents prosper immensely.

But they want nothing to do with stock markets.

When I explain Bitshares they instantly understand/accept it (they have unbelievable faith in tech/anything new) and more importantly, they see it as an anti-Wall Street, anti-Big Bank way to invest for their futures.

I've beat this drum before - marketing needs to reach out to the 35 and under crowd in a big way.

These folks could drive the BTSX market cap much higher and faster than anyone expects.

319
General Discussion / Re: BitUSD currently paying more than 1.5% APR
« on: October 01, 2014, 01:30:49 am »
A lower APR on an asset like bitUSD will facilitate adoption as it seems much less scammy than say 5%.

Folks are conditioned to expect low risk = low return and holding cash/cash equivalents is about as low risk as one can get (if one ignores the current trend of fiat debasement).

I would be very skeptical of anyone offering me 5% to hold USD - what's the catch?

But 1.5% offered by a decentralized bank/exchange without overhead (payroll, bricks) is believable.

320
General Discussion / Re: How fast are BTSX burned?
« on: September 30, 2014, 06:45:14 pm »
I suspect the burn rate will be significant, which if marketed properly can make BTSX a very desirable asset for investors.

However, at some point the burn will necessarily reduce the supply of BTSX to zero.

It was established the burn-to-zero problem can be managed by resetting the supply to 2B at any future point in time.

But is was not established exactly how this would be accomplished.

My vote would be for some type of hard-coded automatic reset once BTSX supply reaches 1B.

Folks basically see a deposit that doubles the number of BTSX shares held with a transaction note that says 'Share supply reset' or similar.

That, or an annual reset.

Can the devs address this issue?

It should be something well explained prior to a marketing push.

321
General Discussion / Re: How high can she go?
« on: September 30, 2014, 05:08:43 pm »
>Trillion dollar BTSX cap is not unrealistic; just did a little pumping here https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=9486.msg123619#msg123619.

322
General Discussion / Re: BTSX vs. bitAssets market cap
« on: September 30, 2014, 05:04:53 pm »
BTSX will be worth 1.5 trillion!
Unreasonable you say... I don't see why.
citing without context rox :)

Folks need to remember that BTSX increases in market cap at some multiple of the cap of the total value of all bitAssets

So if $300B of bitUSD produces a $1.5T BTSX cap what happens if bitCNY also has a few hundred billion in market cap?

Now what about bitEUR?

Now what about bitGLD/SLV/OIL/APPL/Pork Bellies?

If the tech works, and at this point we have proof positive that it does, and if marketing drives any level of adoption, the market cap of BTSX could be stunning. A singularity-type event.

BTSX is essentially a container for the value of all existing and future asset classes.

And when folks put their asset value into the BTSX container they get yield (huge!), negligible counter party risk (huge!), global portability, public ledger, TITAN etc. etc. etc.

Investors can get all the benefits of the Bitcoin protocol yet maintain portfolio allocations/diversification.

Business owners around the globe can reduce banking overhead while accessing new markets.

Hell, a company like Western Union could adopt bitUSD and avoid certain death.

Citizens in bankrupt/corrupt/hyperinflating countries can use bitAssets to preserve wealth.

The 'unbanked' billions can access full banking/investing services for the cost of a pre-paid smart phone - no gov ID, address, credit rate etc. required.

A BTSX market cap in the trillions is an eventuality if there is even a modest level of adoption.

The only speed bump is fiat on-ramps.

The fact that I3 team is making this their No. 1 non-development priority should give investors goose-bumps, especially as Circle is right now proving that debit/credit cards can work as a major fiat on-ramp.

Crazy, but it's happening.

323
General Discussion / Re: Why I suck and Agent86 does not!
« on: September 30, 2014, 04:31:24 pm »
Quote from: Agent86
The market rules are not meant only for bot trading, getting rid of the prioritization by fee in favor of prioritization by collateral just made it less costly to trade on deviations/inefficiencies in the market so you may see more bot activity.

Congratulations on the new market mechanics A86. The peg is tracking ALL assets beautifully.

Seconded, well done.

324
General Discussion / Re: How fast are BTSX burned?
« on: September 30, 2014, 04:29:46 pm »
The way I understand it, a portion of BTSX are burned by delegates as a form of dividend to BTSX holders by decreasing supply, correct? Is there any way to determine how fast this burn rate will be? For example, coinmarketcap has us at 1,999,883,512 BTSX right now, meaning 116,488 BTSX have been burnt to date. Is this accurate? Is there any way to guesstimate how many BTSX will be in existence after say 1 year? 3 years? 10 years?

Burn rate is entirely dependent on transaction volume; burn increases as transactions increase.

I don't think there's any way to guesstimate - you will end up with the same type of charts that are circulated to predict future price movements for Bitcoin.

325
General Discussion / Re: So whats going on with marketing?
« on: September 30, 2014, 04:24:43 pm »
I assure you, we are working tirelessly behind the scenes.  We are focusing our energy on "on ramps" as bytemaster said.   Credit cards, debit and bank transfers direct to BTSX and bitUSD.  I hate to say just wait, but that's what I'm saying.  I cant give details until after the fact, as we're talking to a lot of potential partners who want to help us.   And yes, we've been invited to money 2020.  Dan will be speaking there, if he accepts.  B

This is probably the best news investors could hope for. Well done!

If Dan can't attend someone from from team should... there will be a lot of eyes and ears.

326
Excellent!  +5%

327
General Discussion / Re: the name of 'bitGLD' should be reconsidered
« on: September 29, 2014, 06:37:06 pm »
If that is true it would be wise to increase the limit.

Derived/pegged assets by their very nature are going to need descriptive names.
Each asset has a description that can be much longer ..

I am aware of this... but the vast majority of folks will never see the descriptions, just the asset names.

328
General Discussion / Re: So whats going on with marketing?
« on: September 29, 2014, 05:09:35 pm »
Bo tells me the Eastern side has a team of 20-30 people contributing in various ways.
what the ...

Now I understand why they already have a nicely layouted investment plan. Well done  +5%

This would also explain the CNY volume... and be a good indicator of what investors can expect when folks this side of the pond ramp up.

330
General Discussion / Re: the name of 'bitGLD' should be reconsidered
« on: September 29, 2014, 05:07:26 pm »
XAU is correct, however, nearly impossible to market to average folks.

bitGOLD and bitSILVER should be implemented before a mainstream marketing push.
AFAIR there is a limit to the length of the bitasset name... and if I am not misstaken it's 6 byte .. i.e. 6 chars

If that is true it would be wise to increase the limit.

Derived/pegged assets by their very nature are going to need descriptive names.

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