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Messages - Markus

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346
Sounds like a good thing to have.

How much funding would you want to have from the Angelshares? And when? What is the total capital needed?

51 of the 52 licences you mentioned are for the US. Wouldn't it be easier to not be based there? Or start up somewhere else and try to get the US licences as a second step.






347
If BTS drops to 1 USD externally, BitUSD value in BTS will drop too.  BitUSD is value of USD in BTS + - some % of trading spread.
Shorts will be happy,  because sold BitUSD for 10 BTS and can buyback for 1BTS. No need for covering.
Longs have the same amount of BitUSD + some dividends, but 10x times less BTS.

I hope somebody will review and confirm or deny my opinion.

Reviewed it and going to deny it, sorry.
You are thinking the wrong direction: If BTS drops to 1 USD externally, BitUSD value in BTS will rise tenfold.

348
This seems to be a tricky question. Let's see if I understood the whole thing and look at it from the inside:

1) 4 million BEX exist.
10 million BitUSD exist, each (on average) with a collateral of 0.2 BEX. The internal market prices them at 0.1 BEX. 2 million BEX are bound in collateral for BitUSD.

2) The external value of BEX drops from $10 to $6.67.
The internal price of BitUSD rises to 0.15 BEX.

3)This causes the first margin calls. (If all BitUSD had been created at the same price, all with exactly 0.2 BEX collateral this would cause an instantaneous short squeeze. But let's assume they were not.)
The first margin calls destroy some BitUSD and drive the price up to 0.16 BEX (with the external value of BEX unchanged at $6.67 one BitUSD is now $1.07).

4) $1.07 per BitUSD triggers shorts to create new BitUSD at 0.16 BEX, these now have a collateral of 0.32 BEX.

5) This goes on for a while: The exteral price of BEX continues to drop, more margin calls kill old BitUSD with small collateral, more shorts create new BitUSD with large collateral. Finally 3,999,999 BEX are bound in collateral but still 10 million BitUSD exist. The exteral value of BEX is near $5.

Really?

6) The last, only available BEX is highly sought after because it is the only way to short BitUSD. Its price should not be able to fall below $5. Demand should stop its external price from falling this low in the first place.

The external price of BEX can only fall more if more free BEX is available. The only way this would happen if BitUSD were voluntarily sold internally.

--> If all longs hold onto their BitUSD this should maintain their value.

Not the total amount of BitUSD is limited by the exchange rate of BTS/USD but the exchange rate of BTS/USD is limited by the total amount of BitUSD. :)

349
BitShares AGS / Re: Should 3i stop BTC investment of AngelShares?
« on: January 11, 2014, 10:30:49 am »
Average daily donations BTC: 48.68
Average daily donations PTS: 2,740.2

48.68 / 2740   =>  .0177

Current PTS Price =>  .0175  (coinmarketcap)

Isn't it funny how efficient the market is?   The only thing stopping BTC donations would do is force us to sell PTS for BTC in the market to pay our bills.  Either way Invictus will end up with BTC and the PTS price will be suppressed.   Except with AGS the process of converting between BTC and PTS is distributed and done in a way that is far more effecient than if Invictus was attempting to raise 500 BTC selling PTS on Bter or Cryptsy.   It is also far more efficient for those who want to invest to send us BTC directly than to jump through hoops on Bter or Cryptsy paying their fees.

Changing the rules would hurt PTS far more than keeping things how they are and how things are is BETTER than if we never took BTC for AGS.    There is a method to our madness.

Your calculation above is a bit cheeky. You compare the average AGS-implied PTS price of the last 10 days with the current price of PTS.
The average PTS price was more like 0.022 BTC which is about 25 % (0.022/0.0177) higher. Clearly selling PTS to donate BTC for AGS is the main reason for the PTS price decline since New Year.
Changing the scheme halfway through though is definitely the wrong thing to do.
One thing III could do instead is denominate more bounties in BTC and not in PTS. I guess many bounty-hunters would sell their PTS for BTC right away depressing the price even more. Since we all believe PTS is undervalued long term this is also in the interest of maximising the value of the Angel Fund.

350
General Discussion / Re: BitShares Status Update
« on: January 10, 2014, 11:48:49 pm »
… With a little careful work I can always round down so that these rounding errors act as a kind of extra 'fee' the network charges users and no new coin ever gets created.

I think rounding down both sides and destroying a few satoshis is the best way.

351
General Discussion / Re: MEDIA INQUIRY: Who created ProtoShares?
« on: January 09, 2014, 07:12:21 am »
I assume you made a typo about primecoin in the post because you mentioned protoshares in the subject, and this forum is about ProtoShares.

I would rather call that a copy-paste-stuff-up :)

352
An interesting article about us without even being mentioned!  :)

Quote:
“One of the biggest questions with a project like this is: How do you fund software development?” he said. “People usually say, ‘I’ll make a company, and then I’ll raise money,’ but at that point it’s not really decentralized anymore.”

U. researchers develop Bitcoin prediction market

http://dailyprincetonian.com/news/2014/01/u-researchers-develop-bitcoin-prediction-market/

353
General Discussion / Re: Do BitShares need an interest rate?
« on: January 05, 2014, 10:06:33 pm »
There needs to be a global rate or BitUSD would not be fungible.
I agree, that at any one time any one BitAsset must have a global rate to make them fungible. This doesn't necessarily mean if has to be larger than zero.

If there are no borrowing costs then you eliminate a major market incentive to cover and make shorting vs simply selling equal.   We want to bias toward sellers first before shorts.
This one seems to be the gist of the matter. Can you explain why this bias is necessary?

Another reason why you want to have an interest rate is because it drives incentive to hold BitUSD and drives demand for BitShares.
This will not drive up demand for long. What it will do is drive up price of BitAssets to an equilibrium level where future interest payments will be priced in - the 114 %, 128 %, 200 % and 400 % figures mentioned in my post. I don't think it will drive demand for BitShares. Rather, promising people they will earn more on a BitAsset than on the corresponding real-life asset taints the whole thing and makes it look Ponziish.

A bank with 0 interest rates is unlikely to receive many deposits and we want there to be a large number of BitUSD deposits.
This is not true if the price of the deposit is floating. Otherwise zero-coupon bonds would not work.

354
General Discussion / Do BitShares need an interest rate?
« on: January 05, 2014, 10:35:16 am »
2) BitAssets will now receive a predictable, hardcoded 5% interest return, and short positions will pay a 5% borrowing cost.

There has been some discussion in the BitShares Status Update thread but I think this topic deserves its own thread.
After thinking about this for some time I wanted to share some thoughts. My question is:

Why do BitShares need interest payed by the shorts to the longs? Without it the BitAsset would track the real-life asset much better.

Essentially, what you are creating with this interest/dividend is an bond with a 5 % coupon and infinite maturity. The price of this asset will be highly susceptible to market interest rates changes. In theory causing the price of the asset to change the same magnitude as the interest rate: for example a rise from 3 % p.a. fo 4 % p.a. (4/3 = a 33 % rise) should lead to a drop in asset value by 25 % (to 3/4). Compare this volatility to a 30 year (the longest maturity available) US treasury bond.
Chart: http://www.comdirect.de/inf/anleihen/detail/chart.html?timeSpan=5Y&ID_NOTATION=15793986#timeSpan=SE&e&

The price of the BitAsset will be (much) higher than the real-life asset where the coupon (5 % assumed) is much higher than the market interest rate. For BitUSD with a US treasury bond yield of 3.9 % p.a. this effect might be negligible (the NPV calculation quoted in the BitShares white paper states 114 %*, I arrive at 128 %). For assets which normally don't fetch an interest (Gold, JPY, etc.) this will be a huge difference: A 100 year 5 % coupon JPY bond in an environment where you normally get 0.8 % p.a. would trade near 400 %, a 30 year bond just above 200 %.

In BitShares there is no need to charge the shorts a penalty. In real life you have to pay for shorting because you need a counter-party. Being long in any asset is quite a natural thing and you can do that on your own. Being short requires somebody to lend you the asset first before you to then sell it. This loan is open as long as your short position is open. In Bitshares being long and being short seem to be equivalent as both need a counter-party, so why disincentivise shorts? Would this not choke the supply?

If you want to fix these issues then at least every BitAsset will need its own interest rate. But my gut feeling is, the lower the rate the better, zero best.

* Is that calculation available anywhere? The paper only states the result.

355
Deutsch (German) / Re: AGS - Angelshares
« on: December 31, 2013, 03:26:47 am »
Wenn du hauptsächlich an BitShares interessiert bist macht es evtl. Sinn PTS in AGS zu tauschen. Das kommt darauf an wie sich das Tauschverhältnis einpendelt. Schau die Angel-Adressen an: Momentan werden 1364 PTS und 21 BTC für je 5000 AGS geboten. Da, was die Ausschüttung von BitShares angeht, PTS und AGS etwa gleichwertig sind macht momentan tauschen Sinn.

Ich werde das ein paar Tage beobachten und dann entscheiden.

Was neue DAC nach BitShares angeht ist so ziemlich alles offen:
Einzig je mind. 10% gehen PTS und AGS Besitzer. Das muss ja nicht immer 50/50 heißen, sondern kann 10/10, 10/90, 90/10 oder was auch immer werden.

356
Deutsch (German) / Re: Cryptocoin mit Index
« on: December 31, 2013, 03:16:36 am »
Ich glaube Freicoin ist von dem Gedanken inspiriert das Sparen zu bestrafen.

Was die Petabyte-Blockchain angeht. Wenn das Ding zu groß wird, kann der Schwanz definiert abgeschnitten werden. Alle Guthaben zu diesem Zeitpunkt werden in einem neuen Block zusammengefasst, der dann die Stelle der ersten x Blöcke übernimmt. Das Thema ist also nicht unbedingt ein Verfallsdatum für BTC.

357
Since bytemaster changed the thread topic to "First 32 BitAssets?" does that mean 32 is fine or is this number up to discussion as well?

My choice of stock indices was: One global one and one for every major economy (including BRIC but without Russia).
If 16 BitAssets is the limit I would kick them altogether.

I thought of CHF but economy and population are tiny. Where did you get the #5 rank from?

SEK and HKD I would kick in favour of INR and BRL.  Greater São Paulo and Mumbai each have far more inhabitants than Sweden and Hong Kong combined :)

Futures on food is a hot topic so I thought of leaving them out for now.

358
Keyhotee / Re: Redeeming Keyhotee ID & Angel Shares for Keyhotee Founders
« on: December 30, 2013, 10:42:04 am »
Good job Stan. Second prize only for me though. Guess a single letter was too greedy :)

… We will allow plenty of time afterward for you to notify us of any problems you discover with the tool - before locking the genesis block.

Please give us at least a week. It is still holiday season and many might be AFK for some days. Would be a bugger to loose a founder ID for not being able to give timely feedback.

359
General Discussion / Re: How does a BitAsset first appear in a chain?
« on: December 30, 2013, 10:27:38 am »
3) BitAssets are defined in the genesis block as a critical part of the consensus forming process.  Every 'market' requires custom tracking by all nodes and therefore BitAssets are not dynamic.   However, if you want to create a new kind of BitAsset all you need to do is launch a new blockchain for that asset, potentially paired with a couple of other related BitAssets.

Does this mean this new blockchain is totally independent of the original BitShares? This would mean the value of the new blockchain's BitShares is free floating and not linked to the original. Is there any way to link both chains so to inherit the trust brought forward towards the original BitShares?

Is there a discussion about what the 32 "original" assets will be?

I haven't seen it anywhere. I might just start it here:

Suggest focusing on fiat (largest economies and most populous countries) with a small amount of crypto, commodities and stock indices. No company stocks as these are too specialised and tend to be ephemeral.

Currencies:
AUD (Australia)
BDT (Bangladesh)
BRL (Brazil)
CAD (Canada)
CNY (China)
EUR (Europe)
GBP (United Kingdom of Great Britain and Northern Ireland)
IDR (Indonesia)
INR (India)
JPY (Japan)
KRW (South Korea)
MXN (Mexico)
NGN (Nigeria)
PHP (Philippines)
PKR (Pakistan)
RUR (Russia)
USD (United States of America)
VND (Vietnam)

Crypto
Bitcoin
Litecoin
Peercoin

Stock Indices
Global (MSCI World)
China (SSE Composite Index)
India (BSE)
Europe (Eurostoxx 50)
USA (DJIA)
Indonesia (IHSG)
Brasil (Ibovespa)

Commodities
Copper
Gold
Silver
Crude Oil

360
General Discussion / Re: How does a BitAsset first appear in a chain?
« on: December 28, 2013, 01:43:29 am »
Where do the first BitUSD come from? If they are "loaned into existence" by someone giving 2 BTS in exchange for 1 BTS worth of BitUSD, what initial exchange rate is used?

I understand that longs and shorts start making bids and asks for BitUSD and as soon as they overlap the first BitUSD are created at this exchange rate.

Some more questions I have:
  • What rate is used if the bid is higher than the ask? Do bids and asks have timestamps as on most exchanges and the older one determines the trade price? What when these overlapping bids/asks first appear in the same block?

  • Will the short positions be tradable? If yes, how will they be made fungible?

  • I'd also like to know who determines which BitAssets will exist. What do I have to do if I want to create a new one, e.g., BitISK?


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