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Topics - kisa

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General Discussion / must see on internet economics
« on: February 05, 2015, 07:04:48 pm »
just saw a fascinating interview with futurist economist Jeremy Rifkin

General Discussion / DAC Article in City AM!
« on: January 07, 2015, 11:10:36 am »

Not sure if this link is known already. City AM is a free read by hundreds of thousands of London underground commuters every morning... has someone of BitShares spoken with Adam Lent of RSA already?

General Discussion / Coindesk: 19 Crypto 2.0 Projects to Watch in 2015
« on: January 04, 2015, 09:43:32 pm »

General Discussion / ripple rally
« on: November 23, 2014, 07:40:41 am »
No. 2 is staging quite strong rally +80% this week...
on steady volume of $1-2m/day. I couldn't yet find out what's causing this.

General Discussion / "pay with your phone" - VC fundraising
« on: November 05, 2014, 04:42:49 pm »
just read of the following venture - competitor or partner?
• Kash Corp., a San Francisco-based mobile payments startup and YCombinator alum, has raised $2 million in seed funding from undisclosed backers.

guys, does anyone follow this newsletter by Dan Primack - daily summary of tech fundraisings...

General Discussion / New Ray Dalio Paper
« on: October 26, 2014, 09:18:56 pm »
folks, just wanted to post this link to recently revised and extended paper by one of the most influential macro traders / thinkers of our time:

in addition to theoretical model and historical analysis, his growth predictions based on productivity and structural reforms in various countries could be especially of interest, starting from page 180...

i don't necessarily agree with all of it, but it is intriguing to see how the head of world biggest and hugely successful hedge fund thinks about the economic cycles.
His previous youtube presentation is quite cool i think...

General Discussion / What defines our lives today
« on: September 30, 2014, 11:14:01 pm »
Just a reminder to ourselves of which technologies are so self evident nowdays which didn't exist or weren't widespread a while ago... Please feel free to add stuff and precision - sorry this post is just a rough sketch as I am traveling... Most of these became $100bn+ worth businesses at some point.

Time since major breakthrough adoption
~10 years: social networking, navigation systems, 3D printers, LEDs, flat screen TV, ETF, drones
~20 years: laser surgery, internet/email, mobile phones, asset-backed securities, credit cards
~30 years: MRI, PC, CD recordings, microwave
~40 years: stock options, washing machines
~50 years: space travel, rock'n'roll
~60 years: atomic weapons, television, arthroscopic surgery, containerization
~70 years: telephone, tanks
~80 years: aircraft, automatic weapons, motorways
~90 years: radio
~100 years: car, electricity, subway, x-ray
~150 years: railway

General Discussion / BTSX vs. bitAssets market cap
« on: September 30, 2014, 08:16:47 am »
Guys did you sometimes think of BTSX along the following (simplified) lines -

We take 300 bn USD which can be used for payments,  consumption, investments, decoration... And we tie them up into BTSX market cap in order to create max. 100 bn bitUSD (incl. other bitAssets) which more efficiently serve similar purposes, apart from decoration. :)

- Is the gain in efficiency worth removing 2/3 of capital out of circulation?

- Would 1/3 generate trading and transfer fees sufficient for supporting BTSX market cap based on reasonable P/E?

- Is there any plan to become flexible on 200% reserve towards fractional?

I just realised that comparing BTSX to stock exchanges etc. could be misleading because of the limit on bitAssets market cap imposed by BTSX market cap combined with 200% reserve requirement. And I can't honestly imagine BTSX market value into trillions even at ultimate saturation. Imho innovation shouldn't defy common sense.


General Discussion / yield on bitAssets not enough?
« on: September 25, 2014, 07:30:48 am »
This night I was thinking about 10% yield once again.

Why should Sally invest in bitUSD or bitGLD? Effectively, she is lending USD to the startup exchange at 10% interest. Will she get her money back? Well, that depends on whether the peg holds and bitAsset market stays liquid. For the peg to hold and stay liquid systematically, we need enough bitUSD or bitGLD longs at ANY point in time, not only when "BTSX looks overvalued". Imho we need some 10-15% of BTSX market cap to be invested in bitAssets longs so that there is little downward or illiquidity pressure on respective pegs.

So, many Sallys would ask, why should I systematically hold bitUSD if I believe that the peg will hold and stay liquid? Then I better invest in BTSX for 10000% prospective yield... Wait, at least until we have enough depth and become established, well known and trusted bank, there is a substantial risk that pegs won't always work as planned. But then Sallys need better compensation for such risk than 10% yield. Perhaps some 20-30% participation in shorts profits sounds rather fair.

I might be overlooking something, and let's say payments utility might help to increase bitUSD long holdings. But I sense that either each larger BTSX investor should be "expected" to exchange 15% of his holdings into bitAssets for the sake of their liquidity and peg stability. Or the compensation for bitAssets longs should become proportional to the risk of peg future disruption/illiquidity and opportunity cost of missing on BTSX rally. Otherwise sounds like BTSX investors looking for people who enable their prospective 10000% return for 10% yield with uncertain payback.

Note - bitAssets don't offer systematic diversification from BTSX business model risk. Yes, you can diversify short term price risk, but that doesn't create reason for critical mass of longs at all times...

So my intuition tells me that we will likely see deficit of bitAssets longs going forward... someone else concerned?

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