Show Posts

This section allows you to view all posts made by this member. Note that you can only see posts made in areas you currently have access to.

Topics - CWEvans

Pages: [1] 2
General Discussion / Cryptsy in disarray
« on: April 17, 2014, 06:03:01 pm »

"The popular cryptocurrency trading site has been having some noticeable issues these past few hours. Users of Cryptsy have been reporting negative balances, frozen transfers, suspended withdrawals. Speculation is that a recent update is causing the issues. Cryptsy is aware of the issues, but no official statement has been released yet."

General Discussion / CNBC: Bitcoin Uprising
« on: April 16, 2014, 03:36:41 pm »
All this excitement over an empty token. Wait till BTS ME and BTS X are released!

General Discussion / Reaching out to the Left
« on: April 15, 2014, 08:13:10 pm »
Although not explicitly stated, it is pretty clear that the vast majority of those who know what the acronym "DAC" stands for embrace some libertarian variant of anti-authoritarianism. We almost never see anti-authoritarian leftists in our midst.  In this, we are missing out on an incredible opportunity.

Only very rarely might one see a band of Rothbardians or Objectivists willing to stand up for their beliefs in front of a water canon in freezing weather, but hold an IMF or Bilderberg Group meeting, and leftist radicals will show up in large numbers in spite of tear gas, concussion grenades, and dogs.

That's the kind of dedication that we need!

Considering that Bitcoin is associated with money, per se, and leftists typically hold money in disdain, we might get some traction among them with BitShares.

For example, someone could use BTS ME to issue Protest Hours (XPH). The movement organizers could exchange XPH for anything else of value, including BTC, BTS, BitUSD, etc., that rally organizers could use to reward protesters who show up at a rally. After the rally, anyone in possession of a unit of XPH could use it to redeem from the movement organizers some fraction of what the rally organizers paid, or better yet use the XPH as a medium of exchange within the activist community.

If the shares circulated as an intra-community medium of exchange, a would-be radical just getting started would be able to look at the market prices of the different movements' shares and either join one with a high market cap or help out one of the underdogs.

Alternatively, the movement organizers could fund their activities with a Distributed Autonomous Charity.

Either way, rather than compete for attention among existing Bitcoin users, we could recruit within a largely untapped market that includes environmental, food, anti-exploitation and anti-human-trafficking, pro-choice, feminist, LGBT, and peace activists. While one might not agree with their agendas, decentralization does imply diversity of thought, and they do have the numbers on their side.

Interesting interview with Tim Draper on Bloomberg:

"The total value of all Bitcoin is about seven or eight billion. So, it is sort of a good, successful business in the eyes of... the venture community."

General Discussion / BitShares bashing on reddit/r/bitcoin
« on: April 12, 2014, 03:15:42 pm »

Looks like there are some grumblings of financial discrepancy...

Interesting that they can spend so heavily in marketing a product that doesnt even have a deadline anymore. How long before we get a "Gee Golly guys, we tried our best but we ran out of funding!"

General Discussion / China: BitCNY, BitEUR, BitUSD
« on: April 02, 2014, 11:24:40 pm »
It is hard to tell what the real story is in China, but it looks like there might be a gaping maw of demand for BitCNY, BitEUR, and BitUSD there.

"OKCoin, FXBTC, and BTC38 Announce the End of Chinese Yuan Deposits Starting April 3, 2014"

Of course, the question still remains how someone in China will be able to acquire BitCNY.

I will keep my eye open for responses on this thread from our Chinese colleagues.

I just felt a disturbance in The Force, as if 1 million long-term Bitcoin hoarders just updated their income tax returns.

Details at Business Insider.

General Discussion / Game Theory Critiques of POW Mining
« on: March 25, 2014, 03:40:49 pm »
Recent article summarizes research analyzing weaknesses in Bitcoin's reliance on POW and mining.

"Academics Spy Weaknesses in Bitcoin’s Foundations"

  • Transaction fees alone are insufficient to justify expense of mining.
  • 'Selfish Miner' attack.
  • Centralization begets DDOS attacks.

General Discussion / BTS Mutual Aid Society (aka 'insurance')
« on: March 24, 2014, 07:39:33 pm »
We have a new board for the BTS Mutual Aid Society (BTS MAS) DAC (aka 'insurance').

Those who are interested in this topic are encouraged to help design the workflow and the cash flows of the DAC. I am working on the white paper, and there are several different ways of handling some aspects that come largely down to a matter of personal taste.

General Discussion / Pricing Premiums
« on: March 24, 2014, 07:35:45 pm »
The premium (P) that one pays should be equal to the probability (p) of the event times the cost (c) of the event, plus a share of fixed administrative overhead (π):

P = p(event)*c(event) + π

A DAC eliminates the need to hire administrative staff, such that π→0.

However, since probability of a future event cannot be known, only estimated, the optimal premium cannot be known ex ante. Given that hindsight is 20/20, we can calculate what the premium should have been, ex post, but that is not helpful.

A prediction market seems to be the best way to set the premium, and perhaps to determine the payout. Whether every Tom, Dick, and Harry should be able to participate in the prediction market, or only certified claims adjusters is the question.

Perhaps we need a separate reputation market, such that the opinions or votes of each market participant is weighted by his, her, its, or their reputation scores?

General Discussion / TANSTAAFL: Risk
« on: March 24, 2014, 06:52:37 pm »
Risk The risk of a particular course of action is like energy or subatomic spin; it cannot be created or destroyed, only transformed or transferred. Like pollution, risk never vanishes, even if it is spread so thinly across the environment that one does not notice it, it is buried in a remote dump, or it is poured into a river to be carried out to the open ocean.

In efficient markets, the party transferring the risk pays a premium to the party that bears the risk, whether it is for an insurance policy, an appliance warranty, a loan guarantee, or any other similar arrangement. Although one is covered, the risk does not cease to exist; someone else has agreed to bear the cost.

When one transfers one's risk to others without compensating them, this creates market inefficiencies, as we see with bailouts of 'too big to fail' firms that do not pay for this coverage during upward phase of the business cycle, with relief payments to property owners in areas prone to natural disasters who pay no premiums to relief agencies, etc.

The same holds true with a mutual aid society (MAS), which is a voluntary association formed by a group of individuals with a common bond to provide mutual aid to its members for relief from sundry difficulties, to which each member pays a fee to compensate the other members for bearing his or her risk.

In other words, in exchange for the expectation of aid in time of need, each member incurs some cost that he or she should consider to be sunk. Participation in the MAS should not be seen as a speculative investment, as the purpose of insurance—most broadly speaking—is to compensate one for one's losses, and not to enable one to profit from them.

We should bear this in mind, when developing the payout scheme.

General Discussion / BTS Mutual Aid Society (aka 'insurance')
« on: March 24, 2014, 02:20:58 pm »
The BTS MAS board is now open. If I have missed any insurance-related threads, let me know, so that I can move them over to the BTS MAS board.

Pages: [1] 2