Some time ago this prediction was proposed on our prediction market from members of this forum.
In the first weeks we had only people how have been willing to predict against BitsharesX.
fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/bitshares-x/


Today someone made the first step by predicting ON BitsharesX.
fairlay.com/anonymous/1GQhNiYRuTJz8BojEoSjo9n5LJdAqjqzDA/

We follow this closely and are interested how it will turn out!

Martin - Team Fairlay

https://www.fairlay.com/event/category/bitcoin/bitshares-x/

Here you find percentages how likely things are (they are always an upper bound - this is why they sum up to >100) but consider - the ones with a (*) are predictions that are right now not backed by someone.

This means until now people are only willing to bet against bitshares.

Lets take the ≈10% for bitshares passing LTC by Sept1.: What it means is that someone is willing to bet on litecoins and is willing to give odds 11. (He bets 10 and someone else could bet 1 against him) The winner would get 11.

Since no one is willing (at the moment to take this odds) the assumption is that the likelihood of this event is <10% (since otherwise probably someone would take the bet)

As soon as someone is willing to bet ON bitshares we can give a upper bound for the other outcome. (Bitshares passing LTC). If you click on "use the advanced form" you see a visualization of the bounds. If you play a little bit with the slider you should get the concept of odds and corresponding percentages.

Information obv. get more reliable with more participants and higher volume. (normally as soon as >100mBTC are bet on both sites the values turns out to be pretty realistic) (since if they are not someone would come in and take the arbitrage opportunity)

Much of the paper was devoted to how to organize a order book for prediction market trading. Truthcoin, takes a much more effective approach using Robin Hanson's Market Scoring Rule, which seems to be getting overlooked by centralized prediction markets like Predictious and Fairlay. The Market Scoring Rule can allow for instant buys and sells.  Order books would require you to wait for someone else to take the opposing side.

Obv. we have a problem with liquidity until now - we will give market scoring rules (or a modification of it) a try!