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Messages - Volker

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16
Satoshidice was a centralized company. They didn't sue the Bitcoin blockchain.
Also Satoshidice had other issues surrounding it. There is no evidence of any US government agency attacking a blockchain or any technology.

If on the other hand you start a company where you take people's money for "stocks" on a virtual exchange and then you sell the company well then yeah. But that isn't what Bitshares did.

I agree that the devs aren't breaking the law and that BitShares isn't legally incorporated, but it markets itself as a company and had a crowdsale/IPO-like offering in the beginning. It calls its units "shares." When BitShares gets big, there will likely be investigations. I don't think anyone will get arrested and I don't think anyone is breaking the law. We agree on that. But I'm just a bit more paranoid.

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Also no one really lost even in the Satoshi Dice example. If you look at the math of it the risk is very low and the fine is manageable. I don't think Bitshares developers are in any trouble because we don't own any shares in Invictus Innovations.

True. Voorhees only had to pay a small sum compared to his profits from operating SD and selling it so you can say it worked out well in the end.

17

There will be similar assets on every blockchain including Bitcoin so if they aren't arresting Counterparty developers why would you think they'd do it to Bitshares?

Mind you, I don't think the SEC could actually win a lawsuit, but I think that governments can and will harass people associated with BitShares by launching lawsuits and investigations. Devs should probably plan for that harassment. Moving to another jurisdiction and officially avoiding Americans would be one way to protect themselves. Try www.satoshidice.com from an American IP. It's what they do and it's a valid strategy.

Volker & Luckbit, PM me when you have a chance please.
Thanks!

You don't want to talk about hardforking bitshares and starting a new project, right? That's not what this thread is about. I want this vision to be realized on BitShares.

18
Refundable when and by what criteria?

You need to lock up 1 million BTS to register your name as one that can be voted on as a delegate.
It's refundable as soon as you unregister as a delegate.

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You already need to pay 2 weeks of earnings or ~60k BTS to register a 100% delegate, that seems sufficient to me.
I don't see how sacrificing two weeks of pay really changes anyone's behavior. People just work hard for two weeks to break even. Then they are incentivized only to do the bare minimum not to get voted out.

If you must have 1 million BTS locked on the blockchain when you are a delegate, then your incentives match the incentives of all BTS holders. Your 1 million BTS is always at risk losing 30 or 50% of its value in CNY or USD if you are not performing well and adding value. This is much better than incentivizing people to work for two weeks to break even.

19
I also believe we should add stocks as market assets, specifically I'd like to see something like Vanguard ETFs. Google provides realtime stock prices so feeds should not be an issue, the only thing holding us back is the price of registration.

In my opinion the 500k fee for short-name assets should only apply to user assets, creating a market asset should be a lot cheaper, more like 10k BTS. That way we could introduce interesting stocks with short ticker names and start trading them, with shorting and collateral backing. That would make the DEX a hell of a lot more interesting, and be something you could actually sell to your friends!

Yeah, that would be great. But if users add thousands of MPAs to one big list for a 10k fee, it will look sloppy and unusable. It needs to be neat. Maybe the NASDAQ can have its own searchable tab full of NASDAQ stocks.  ETFs like Vanguard can have their own tab. The devs would have to work with us on this.

20
With nothing else changed, what effect would this have?

21
what a tick, looks like this is nmc related??

Probably temporarily out of reserves. BitShares is available for me but bitUSD isn't.

22
1.  Stock trading is a great market to enter eventually and exchanges are extremely important for liquidity, but I think the core value proposition of bitAssets currently is its usefulness for mainstream users for payments. 

bitUSD is not much more useful than paypalUSD. From the  shopper's perspective, bitUSD is much slower and harder to obtain. Some merchants have a lot to gain, but these merchants are not offering big discounts for using bitUSD, so why would the customers bother obtaining bitUSD? Getting a 20% discount by using bitUSD would do a lot for adoption, but we can't force merchants to offer discounts.   

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The core value proposition of Bitcoin/altcoins as a payment system is to save the 3% credit card fees for merchants.

If that's the core value proposition, then it looks like we're fucked. Large companies like amazon.com have negotiated much better deals than 3%. More like 1%.
I would hope that the core value proposition for cryptoassets would be as a stores of wealth, like gold. Transactional use is only helpful for establishing a baseline value. Bitcoin's transactional use couldn't support an even 1 billion dollar market cap. The velocity of money is too high.


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3.  People go into crypto trading because they want to trade crypto and believe in the value proposition of Bitcoin and other altcoins.   I'm sure some people get addicted to trading and would want to trade other assets, but most of the volume in crypto-exchanges/gateways is between Bitcoin & local currencies.  Also bitAssets on exchanges may not be as compelling because you can already trade into local currency from Bitcoin on exchanges.   The main value proposition for using the bitShares exchange vs another exchange is because it's decentralized, not because it has pegged assets.
The compelling reason to trade everything on bitshares with bitassets would be because the platform is better in every way, not just better in one way (decentralized).


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4. Right now Bitcoin exchanges charge .2 - .5% per trade. (Competition will drive that lower)  Regular mainstream online brokerage accounts charge .5%-1% on an average trade of $1-$2k.   Settlement will be much faster using crypto.  Smaller and microtrades are compelling.  Not that many people worry about counterparty risk for securities.  There are advantages, but how compelling is it for investors or traders to switch? The biggest downside is there won't be much liquidity compared to regular brokerage accounts. 
The market size of retail online brokerage trading is maybe $10Billion/yr?  (Interactive brokers & E-Trade make about $1B rev per year)


Remember, BitAssets are created using BitShares. If there are 10 billion dollars worth of bitUSD being used to trade 10 billion worth of various bitassets.There must be more than 40 billion dollars worth of BitShares in existence. Then we start burning the fees.

BitShares can do what other platforms can't:
A big advantage is that BitShares allows you to trade anything. I'm American. If I could, I'd trade some Chinese stocks with BitShares that are not available in America. Chinese people would like to trade some American stocks that are not available in China. Those are just two examples.

BitShares will be the best way to let everyone trade everything.

Counterparty risk: It's common for brokerage accounts to be locked, disabled, or seized for some legal reason. BitShares will never lock your account.

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5. We technically have a Forex exchange using bitAssets already.  Is there a lot of Forex activity?  I don't think there is much of any.  Most people just trade between local currency and BTS.  (I think there will be a lot of Forex activity eventually, but only after there is a core value proposition to use BTS for payments in various local currencies)
Currently, trading on bitshares is not attractive because 20x-50x margin is not available. If I trade bitEUR:bitUSD, how much money can I make? Think about it.

23

IMO the main problem seems to be that all market making is pegged to BTS which is pretty much a wildcard. So to be more than a mere gambler, one has to understand both markets.  That just seems to be asking too much.

Huh? If you're trading bitUSD:bitBTC, then you don't need to know anything about the BTS markets. You can focus on any pair. If you don't understand BTS, you don't need to trade BTS.

24
BitShares cannot "take off" while bitcoin and the rest of crypto are in a bear market.

Yes, because that is number 4 on Stanimov's 7 deadly crypto natural laws:

"#4. only DarkDashTITANCOPYCoin can grow its market cap duting a bitcoin bear market."

DASH/DRK was the only coin on the list that figured out the whole supply vs. demand thing. If you want to create a DASH masternode (which receives new DASH in exchange for the masternode's mixing services), then you need to lock up 1000 DRK. Sort of like staking in Peercoin. You can't touch those 1000 DASH and you receive more DASH out of the block reward.

There are thousands of DASH masternodes now and they are each locking up $3000+ USD worth of DASH, taking it out of the supply. The people who run these masternodes then save up another 1000, and then "stake them" in order to get even more DASH.

BitShares could employ a similar strategy for delegates. Instead of having a registration bond that's destroyed, (which only motivates scam delegates to pretend to do work for a few weeks), we could instead have a large registration fee that's not destroyed, but is rather returned to the delegate after "canceling" delegate registration. Perhaps 1 million BTS. (If DASH can have $3000-required masternodes, we can have $4500-required delegates) So everyone who is a delegate or running as a delegate must have 1 million BTS locked up in the system. What would be the result?

1) All delegates are heavily invested in BTS compared to the pay they receive. Unless they truly believe that they will serve as beneficial delegates for a long time and that BTS will be worth more in the long-term, then becoming a 100% delegate will be too risky for them.  If they're willing to lock up 1 million BTS and risk getting fired in a few weeks for inaction or incompetency after BTS drops 30% against the USD, they'll lose money measured in USD.

2) 101 * 1 million = 101 million BTS taken out of supply by delegates alone and probably more because delegates need to lock up 1 million BTS on the blockchain to be eligible for votes.

Wow, your trolling of DASH just made me think of this on the spot. This is a damn good idea and solves delegate accountability and incentive issues  without having to micromanage them.

I'm sure some people will complain that it's elitist though.

25
General Discussion / Re: Not everyone is selling at a loss
« on: April 13, 2015, 04:07:35 am »
When I first started looking at BitShares, the delegate system struck me as both genius and poorly implemented. Proof-of-work mining is a waste, but so is DPOS if there's no mechanism for tracking delegate performance. Yunbi was supposedly working on a wallet and then it turns out that they weren't working on anything at all. This sort of inaction should be detected and dealt with within 1 week's time. It shouldn't take months to realize that the system is paying two 100% delegates for nothing. There's very little demand for bitUSD or any BitShares services right now, so it seems silly to counter with "inflation is low much lower than bitcoin/litecoin/etc." Any inflation hurts when demand is near zero. BitShares price is a simple function of supply vs. demand. bitUSD is not very useful and using it to buy alpaca socks without volatility is not a killer app. Make BitShares the ultimate trading platform by adding margin long trading, lending markets and more bitAssets and there will be millions of dollars worth of daily trade in
bitCNY:________
bitBTC: ________
bitUSD:________
and BTS:________ trading pairs.

Today I have zero use for BitShares. Let me lend bitUSD to traders on bitshares at 20% annually and I will put $20,000 into bitUSD tomorrow. Let me borrow bitUSD against my bitUSD collateral to buy bitBTC and I will stop using Bitfinex tomorrow.





26
In theory shouldn't it be possible to have autonomously issued assets? Assets issued by DACs themselves on the Bitshares blockchain in such a way that it cannot be a scam?

I think it's possible. Imagine for example you have a robo taxi which DAC which is owned by it's initial developers. They decide to build into the design the ability to "go public" by autonomously issuing assets which people could buy through Bitshares to either use as taxi service or to get profit sharing, discounts or whatever else.

I think in the context of the Internet of Things the UIA's make a lot more sense. I think in the current context UIA's should be collateralized and it's a mystery to me why Bytemaster changed his mind on that but my guess is it was to allow certain people in the community the opportunity to establish trust. That is fine but I wouldn't trust a UIA which isn't collateralized in some way or issued by algorithm (by a blockchain which no one fully controls). If you're giving money to a person it's just a gift or donation no matter how they try to tell you otherwise because code is law.

Volker on everything else I agree with you. I think Bitshares would be much more useful to people in western countries if it could be used to trade every kind of value, including stocks, CFDs, and even the most exotic stuff. We should have our own indexes we trade as well.

Listing a fully automated DAC as a UIA is interesting, but probably too complex to think about right now. A taxi company still has assets in real lifer that are owned by people, so a fully online DAC would probably be better. But there are always going to be trust issues with a UIA and, as a rule, half of them will turn out to be scams. BitShares just doesn't need that market. There's not much to be gained. If a company wants to raise money let them go somewhere else. We'll have enough problems just dealing with ordinary bugs and black swan events.

That is my Bitshares vision too, but the problem is most of the Bitshares Devs are from US and they are worry to implement something that may encounter govt prosecution.
Thus, Bitshares vision is limited and strict.

Just my few cents

Yes, but aren't bitUSD and bitCNY already CFDs? The Chinese government will not be happy with people freely trading bitCNY because the Chinese yuan is not supposed to be freely traded. The US does not want Americans trading any CFDs at all. The only reason why BitShares developers are not being prosecuted is because BitShares is small.

The developers need to decide now what countries they want to live in and what risks they are prepared to take. When Americans are trading pre-IPO Whatsapp or Snapchat shares with 3x leverage, the SEC definitely won't like it. But even if Americans are just trading very large amounts of BTS:bitUSD, they won't like it either. Probably the best way to protect yourselves as developers would be to move operations to Panama or Gibraltar (or a jurisdiction where this stuff is tolerated) and go all the way. Then make the official policy that Americans may not use some of the bitAssets. Redirect American IP addresses to a limited-feature client on the bitshares.org website.

27
I am glad to see others interested in the index approach.

Just some thoughts:

    While it could be run using the CFD model very safely, I think an Open Transactions or Hyper Ledger as a ledger for a reserve to  actual tokens is the most legit way to go.

    Save CFD's for SPY for DJI and NASDAQ.

    The key to keeping a reserve is limiting the redeemable time from entry of the assets as well as the value flow in to maintain calm markets.

I'd prefer a system of pure CFDs. And not just indices. Everything. Corn futures. Tesla. Everything. Why? It requires the most BTS and the least trust in issuers.

If people want to trade user-issued asset tokens representing BRK or AAPL on BitShares, they can do that in a separate tab. A Chinese group is working on that now with BRK. In any case, it doesn't do much for BitShares in terms of fees, and it exposes BitShares to a ton of negative press if asset issuers turn out to be scammers. How much will BitShares earn from fees when people are buying and selling shares of scamAAPL for 2 cents per transaction? How much will be lost when BitShares is mentioned as the platform where scamAAPL issuers ran away leaving scamAAPL holders with useless tokens? Quite frankly, I would prefer to see user issued assets deleted from BitShares entirely. Let people use NXT, Open Transactions, Counter-Party, or whatever if they want to issue assets. We can already see the disastrous history of user issued assets on Havelock. Almost every asset turns out to be a scam, including ASICMiner. I'm telling you, we don't want any of that crap on BitShares.



28
Traders and investors are the real customers, not merchants and shoppers. Merchants and shoppers don't necessarily need to hold bitUSD for a long time to do transactions. Nor do people using bitAssets for remittance purposes. These people hold bitAssets for as short a time as possible. They just want to be in the BTS system to accomplish their transaction. Then they leave the system.

In contrast, traders and investors either:
a) make lots of short term transactions (requiring frequent paying of fees) OR
b) hold their assets for a long period of time (taking those BTS out of circulation and also generating a yield that must be paid in BTS)

But traders are not interested in BitShares. Why? Just compare Bitshares to non-Bitshares trading platforms. Foreseeably, the most popular market-pegged assets will be government currencies, cryptocurrencies, and stocks. In the non-BitShares world, the most popular platforms for trading those assets (Forex markets, cryptocurrency exchanges, and stock brokerages) all have one thing in common: there is borrowing. The less volatile the asset (e.g. government currencies), the more borrowing is allowed. (Because no one is going to trade bitEUR:bitUSD unless they can trade with 20x margin.) The margin levels of course should differ depending on the class of assets traded (e.g. bitEUR:bitUSD should allow for 20x margin but BTS:bitUSD should only allow for .5x margin.)

The ultimate vision for BitShares, which I think we all share is:
Any person anywhere in the world with 100 BTS can hold, trade, borrow, or lend every major asset that exists in the world 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year with zero counter-party risk, virtually no minimum deposit or withdrawal size, low fees, and total privacy.

Trading is the activity that BitShares excels at. We want this to be like a vacation resort; people come into the BitShares system with their $2000 and Bitshares offers so many amazing services that they spend that money playing in the Bitshares system for years while they borrow, lend, daytrade, and invest to their heart's content. Mr. Larimer is a BTS bull so he shorts bitUSD, bitCNY and every other currency into existence in exchange for more BTS. Mr. Bernanke is a stock market bear and offers to short the entire US stock market against his bitUSD offering 0% interest. Ms. Zhang from China wants to buy Berkshire Hathaway but it's not available on the Chinese stock market. Ms. Zhang gets some bitUSD and buys bitBRK from Mr. Bernanke. Mr. Volker risks lending Ms. Zhang some additional bitUSD at 10% annually as long as she is only allowed 3x margin or less and will be automatically margin called if her balance goes too low. Mr. Gates knows something about what bitUSD:bitMSFT will do next week and no one's going to know if he trades it. And Mr. Ackman thinks that the USD:Hong Kong dollar peg will break and the Hong Kong dollar will be worth 30% more after the peg breaks. So Mr. Ackman borrows 50 million dollars worth of bitUSD at 10% per year and buys bitHKD.

And it goes on and on and on. Are you guys seeing what I'm seeing? BTS will eventually be like like forex, Bitfinex, NASDAQ, Nikkei, and Hang Seng all combined, only better.  A one stop shop for trading anything and everything. And then we just make sure there are no clocks on the BTS client and let people waste away in front of their computer screens making trade after trade in complete capitalist ecstasy.

When BitShares can do this, the CPC (cost per customer) that we are so worried about is going to drop to 0 because BTS will be more addictive than World of Warcraft.

tl;dr - Forget about merchants and customers. We need collateralized lending markets to attract forex, cryptocurrency, and equities traders and keep their money in the BitShares system.
 
EDIT: made my examples more accurate

So lets start with the indexes. Also why don't we have BitNXT, BitETH and so on? Bitshares encourages people to leave to go invest in those because you can't invest in them on the internal exchange. Over focus on BitUSD is holding Bitshares back.

How about some focus on stocks or the stock index? If the liquidity could be there and the price feed could be found.

Yes, we should have every currency, every cryptocurrency, every index, every commodity, and every stock in existence on BitShares. But first we need lending in place to attract the traders and the liquidity. Look at the trade volume difference between Finex/OKCoin and BTC-E. People need and want margin trading for most of my examples to work. We need collateralized lending in place, not just shorting and yield. No one will trade bitBTC:bitUSD on BitShares when they can get 3x margin on Finex. But IF they can trade bitUSD:bitBTC on BitShares with near 0% fee with margin trading paying interest (of which the BTS network takes a cut) BitShares will be very attractive.

I will volunteer  to provide liquidity shorting every asset in the world against BTS, including BTC, Google, and Berkshire Hathaway once collateralized lending is in place and BitShares becomes the trading paradise that it has the potential to become. Because when BTS becomes the one-stop trading paradise of the world, nothing will compare to its growth.

29
Traders and investors are the real customers, not merchants and shoppers. Merchants and shoppers don't necessarily need to hold bitUSD for a long time to do transactions. Nor do people using bitAssets for remittance purposes. These people hold bitAssets for as short a time as possible. They just want to be in the BTS system to accomplish their transaction. Then they leave the system.

In contrast, traders and investors either:
a) make lots of short term transactions (requiring frequent paying of fees) OR
b) hold their assets for a long period of time (taking those BTS out of circulation and also generating a yield that must be paid in BTS)

But traders are not interested in BitShares. Why? Just compare Bitshares to non-Bitshares trading platforms. Foreseeably, the most popular market-pegged assets will be government currencies, cryptocurrencies, and stocks. In the non-BitShares world, the most popular platforms for trading those assets (Forex markets, cryptocurrency exchanges, and stock brokerages) all have one thing in common: there is borrowing. The less volatile the asset (e.g. government currencies), the more borrowing is allowed. (Because no one is going to trade bitEUR:bitUSD unless they can trade with 20x margin.) The margin levels of course should differ depending on the class of assets traded (e.g. bitEUR:bitUSD should allow for 20x margin but BTS:bitUSD should only allow for .5x margin.)

The ultimate vision for BitShares, which I think we all share is:
Any person anywhere in the world with 100 BTS can hold, trade, borrow, or lend every major asset that exists in the world 24 hours a day, 7 days a week, 365 days a year with zero counter-party risk, virtually no minimum deposit or withdrawal size, low fees, and total privacy.

Trading is the activity that BitShares excels at. We want this to be like a vacation resort; people come into the BitShares system with their $2000 and Bitshares offers so many amazing services that they spend that money playing in the Bitshares system for years while they borrow, lend, daytrade, and invest to their heart's content. Mr. Larimer is a BTS bull so he shorts bitUSD, bitCNY and every other currency into existence in exchange for more BTS. Mr. Bernanke is a stock market bear and offers to short the entire US stock market against his bitUSD offering 0% interest. Ms. Zhang from China wants to buy Berkshire Hathaway but it's not available on the Chinese stock market. Ms. Zhang gets some bitUSD and buys bitBRK from Mr. Bernanke. Mr. Volker risks lending Ms. Zhang some additional bitUSD at 10% annually as long as she is only allowed 3x margin or less and will be automatically margin called if her balance goes too low. Mr. Gates knows something about what bitUSD:bitMSFT will do next week and no one's going to know if he trades it. And Mr. Ackman thinks that the USD:Hong Kong dollar peg will break and the Hong Kong dollar will be worth 30% more after the peg breaks. So Mr. Ackman borrows 50 million dollars worth of bitUSD at 10% per year and buys bitHKD. And he will pay the bitUSD back after the peg breaks or he gives up.

And it goes on and on and on. Are you guys seeing what I'm seeing? BTS will eventually be like like forex, Bitfinex, NASDAQ, Nikkei, and Hang Seng all combined, only better.  A one stop shop for trading anything and everything. And then we just make sure there are no clocks on the BTS client and let people waste away in front of their computer screens making trade after trade in complete capitalist ecstasy burning up fees while simultaneously soaking up BTS supply (into bitAssets).

When BitShares can do this, the CPC (cost per customer) that we are so worried about is going to drop to 0 because BTS will be more addictive than World of Warcraft.

tl;dr - Forget about merchants and customers. We need collateralized lending markets to attract forex, cryptocurrency, and equities traders and keep their money in the BitShares system.
 
EDIT: made my examples more accurate

30
General Discussion / Re: What's happening with the price?
« on: April 10, 2015, 10:27:15 pm »
The killer feature bitshares is missing is credibility and trustworthiness. Changing the supply schedule is a cardinal sin and absolutely nothing has been done to legitimize it

Monero's community had a proposal to change its supply schedule in order to reduce its 50%+ annual inflation. It was discussed for several months and ultimately rejected unanimously.

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