Quote from: Empirical1.1 on September 05, 2014, 12:42:08 AM

Quote from: donkeypong on September 05, 2014, 12:29:13 AM

Quote from: Empirical1.1 on September 04, 2014, 11:42:46 PM

Quote from: Empirical1 on August 25, 2014, 12:18:17 AM
I think a lot of people are hoping BitUSD may track USD fairly close to 1-1 most of the time.

However because people are so bullish on BTSX and shorting BTSX lets you take a leveraged position on BTSX. BTSX bulls may be willing to short still at $0.70, this trading range will be so far from the peg that it could damage the credibility of the peg. This could make people sell BTSX. This will mean less BTSX bulls willing to short below the peg and the situation will correct itself.

I don't mind a BitUSD like that but it might not appeal as much to retailers and savers.

It seems to make it stable you should introduce free market interest rates.
Then you still short 1-1 but when most people are bulls like now you will pay a higher interest rate to short BitUSD as opposed to shorting very far below the peg.

I made this prediction before BitAssets started trading.

While not as low as $0.7, the first part essentially came true. (Too many people willing to short below the peg.) Enough to warrant introducing price feeds.

The second part has been implemented (only shorting @ 1-1) but without interest rates...

The third part, interest/incentive rates are needed I think BM has a great solution here - https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=8235.msg108444#msg108444

My new prediction

Despite claims that the peg is working BitAsset creation will be minimal. (The share price will languish below $80 million CAP) Over the next few weeks the voices will get louder asking for interest.

Within a week of interest/incentives being added to BTSX the CAP will surpass Litecoin.

If interest/incentives is not added for say a month from now you should also see BitAssets already in circulation starting to fetch prices >2% below the peg on average.

(No economics degree or prediction market understanding, novice trader, don't understand options, contracts etc.. So take it with a pinch of salt but that's my prediction...)

That's a fair and informed prediction. I'll hold you to it! Honestly, though, we need to wait for a fully functional client. Some of us non-techies have barely been able to open the thing over the last few iterations. Once that is set and the marketing really gets into gear, I agree with your second part.

I'm in the same non-techie boat  :) and while I look forward to a more stable client it won't really help the peg like they hope imo.

For me, the most obvious example is BitBTC

Why would anyone buy BitBTC @1-1 in BTSX without an incentive?

They would then have BTSX failure/bug risk. They may not be able to re-sell BitBTC @ 1-1. They have to pay trading fees as well as the same conversion fee to real BTC as if they just sent BTSX to an exchange.

So it's obvious to me incentives will have to be added. The good news is shorts are willing to do that atm & BitBTC with incentives is a game changer  8)

I agree completely.

Quote from: Empirical1.1 on September 05, 2014, 12:42:08 AM

Quote from: donkeypong on September 05, 2014, 12:29:13 AM

Quote from: Empirical1.1 on September 04, 2014, 11:42:46 PM

Quote from: Empirical1 on August 25, 2014, 12:18:17 AM
I think a lot of people are hoping BitUSD may track USD fairly close to 1-1 most of the time.

However because people are so bullish on BTSX and shorting BTSX lets you take a leveraged position on BTSX. BTSX bulls may be willing to short still at $0.70, this trading range will be so far from the peg that it could damage the credibility of the peg. This could make people sell BTSX. This will mean less BTSX bulls willing to short below the peg and the situation will correct itself.

I don't mind a BitUSD like that but it might not appeal as much to retailers and savers.

It seems to make it stable you should introduce free market interest rates.
Then you still short 1-1 but when most people are bulls like now you will pay a higher interest rate to short BitUSD as opposed to shorting very far below the peg.

I made this prediction before BitAssets started trading.

While not as low as $0.7, the first part essentially came true. (Too many people willing to short below the peg.) Enough to warrant introducing price feeds.

The second part has been implemented (only shorting @ 1-1) but without interest rates...

The third part, interest/incentive rates are needed I think BM has a great solution here - https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=8235.msg108444#msg108444

My new prediction

Despite claims that the peg is working BitAsset creation will be minimal. (The share price will languish below $80 million CAP) Over the next few weeks the voices will get louder asking for interest.

Within a week of interest/incentives being added to BTSX the CAP will surpass Litecoin.

If interest/incentives is not added for say a month from now you should also see BitAssets already in circulation starting to fetch prices >2% below the peg on average.

(No economics degree or prediction market understanding, novice trader, don't understand options, contracts etc.. So take it with a pinch of salt but that's my prediction...)

That's a fair and informed prediction. I'll hold you to it! Honestly, though, we need to wait for a fully functional client. Some of us non-techies have barely been able to open the thing over the last few iterations. Once that is set and the marketing really gets into gear, I agree with your second part.

I'm in the same non-techie boat  :) and while I look forward to a more stable client it won't really help the peg like they hope imo.

For me, the most obvious example is BitBTC

Why would anyone buy BitBTC @1-1 in BTSX without an incentive?

They would then have BTSX failure/bug risk. They may not be able to re-sell BitBTC @ 1-1. They have to pay trading fees as well as the same conversion fee to real BTC as if they just sent BTSX to an exchange.

So it's obvious to me incentives will have to be added. The good news is shorts are willing to do that atm & BitBTC with incentives is a game changer  8)

Your points are valid and well supported. Right now their doesn't seem to be much demand for asset's and I think you are very correct in your interest incentive argument.
Not sure about the marketcap part though, I would actually expect a price drop if interest is not impleneted or something major like a payment gateway doesn't happen. Don't get me wrong I am very bullish for the future and don't think interest should be rushed into but in Cryptos everything seems to be going up or down not much room for stagnation. Instead of a ebb and flow of price raising and falling it seems to look more like spikes followed by sharp drop offs.

Short term priceprediction of .022 a share unless interest is added or a payment gateway.
How low do you think we will go?

Quote from: donkeypong on September 05, 2014, 12:29:13 AM

Quote from: Empirical1.1 on September 04, 2014, 11:42:46 PM

Quote from: Empirical1 on August 25, 2014, 12:18:17 AM
I think a lot of people are hoping BitUSD may track USD fairly close to 1-1 most of the time.

However because people are so bullish on BTSX and shorting BTSX lets you take a leveraged position on BTSX. BTSX bulls may be willing to short still at $0.70, this trading range will be so far from the peg that it could damage the credibility of the peg. This could make people sell BTSX. This will mean less BTSX bulls willing to short below the peg and the situation will correct itself.

I don't mind a BitUSD like that but it might not appeal as much to retailers and savers.

It seems to make it stable you should introduce free market interest rates.
Then you still short 1-1 but when most people are bulls like now you will pay a higher interest rate to short BitUSD as opposed to shorting very far below the peg.

I made this prediction before BitAssets started trading.

While not as low as $0.7, the first part essentially came true. (Too many people willing to short below the peg.) Enough to warrant introducing price feeds.

The second part has been implemented (only shorting @ 1-1) but without interest rates...

The third part, interest/incentive rates are needed I think BM has a great solution here - https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=8235.msg108444#msg108444

My new prediction

Despite claims that the peg is working BitAsset creation will be minimal. (The share price will languish below $80 million CAP) Over the next few weeks the voices will get louder asking for interest.

Within a week of interest/incentives being added to BTSX the CAP will surpass Litecoin.

If interest/incentives is not added for say a month from now you should also see BitAssets already in circulation starting to fetch prices >2% below the peg on average.

(No economics degree or prediction market understanding, novice trader, don't understand options, contracts etc.. So take it with a pinch of salt but that's my prediction...)

That's a fair and informed prediction. I'll hold you to it! Honestly, though, we need to wait for a fully functional client. Some of us non-techies have barely been able to open the thing over the last few iterations. Once that is set and the marketing really gets into gear, I agree with your second part.

I'm in the same non-techie boat  :) and while I look forward to a more stable client it won't really help the peg like they hope imo.

For me, the most obvious example is BitBTC

Why would anyone buy BitBTC @1-1 in BTSX without an incentive?

They would then have BTSX failure/bug risk. They may not be able to re-sell BitBTC @ 1-1. They have to pay trading fees as well as the same conversion fee to real BTC as if they just sent BTSX to an exchange.

So it's obvious to me incentives will have to be added. The good news is shorts are willing to do that atm & BitBTC with incentives is a game changer  8)

Quote from: Empirical1.1 on September 04, 2014, 11:42:46 PM

Quote from: Empirical1 on August 25, 2014, 12:18:17 AM
I think a lot of people are hoping BitUSD may track USD fairly close to 1-1 most of the time.

However because people are so bullish on BTSX and shorting BTSX lets you take a leveraged position on BTSX. BTSX bulls may be willing to short still at $0.70, this trading range will be so far from the peg that it could damage the credibility of the peg. This could make people sell BTSX. This will mean less BTSX bulls willing to short below the peg and the situation will correct itself.

I don't mind a BitUSD like that but it might not appeal as much to retailers and savers.

It seems to make it stable you should introduce free market interest rates.
Then you still short 1-1 but when most people are bulls like now you will pay a higher interest rate to short BitUSD as opposed to shorting very far below the peg.

I made this prediction before BitAssets started trading.

While not as low as $0.7, the first part essentially came true. (Too many people willing to short below the peg.) Enough to warrant introducing price feeds.

The second part has been implemented (only shorting @ 1-1) but without interest rates...

The third part, interest/incentive rates are needed I think BM has a great solution here - https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=8235.msg108444#msg108444

My new prediction

Despite claims that the peg is working BitAsset creation will be minimal. (The share price will languish below $80 million CAP) Over the next few weeks the voices will get louder asking for interest.

Within a week of interest/incentives being added to BTSX the CAP will surpass Litecoin.

If interest/incentives is not added for say a month from now you should also see BitAssets already in circulation starting to fetch prices >2% below the peg on average.

(No economics degree or prediction market understanding, novice trader, don't understand options, contracts etc.. So take it with a pinch of salt but that's my prediction...)

That's a fair and informed prediction. I'll hold you to it! Honestly, though, we need to wait for a fully functional client. Some of us non-techies have barely been able to open the thing over the last few iterations. Once that is set and the marketing really gets into gear, I agree with your second part.

Quote from: Empirical1 on August 25, 2014, 12:18:17 AM
I think a lot of people are hoping BitUSD may track USD fairly close to 1-1 most of the time.

However because people are so bullish on BTSX and shorting BTSX lets you take a leveraged position on BTSX. BTSX bulls may be willing to short still at $0.70, this trading range will be so far from the peg that it could damage the credibility of the peg. This could make people sell BTSX. This will mean less BTSX bulls willing to short below the peg and the situation will correct itself.

I don't mind a BitUSD like that but it might not appeal as much to retailers and savers.

It seems to make it stable you should introduce free market interest rates.
Then you still short 1-1 but when most people are bulls like now you will pay a higher interest rate to short BitUSD as opposed to shorting very far below the peg.

I made this prediction before BitAssets started trading.

While not as low as $0.7, the first part essentially came true. (Too many people willing to short below the peg.) Enough to warrant introducing price feeds.

The second part has been implemented (only shorting @ 1-1) but without interest rates...

The third part, interest/incentive rates are needed I think BM has a great solution here - https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=8235.msg108444#msg108444

My new prediction

Despite claims that the peg is working BitAsset creation will be minimal. (The share price will languish below $80 million CAP) Over the next few weeks the voices will get louder asking for interest.

Within a week of interest/incentives being added to BTSX the CAP will surpass Litecoin.

If interest/incentives is not added for say a month from now you should also see BitAssets already in circulation starting to fetch prices >2% below the peg on average.

(No economics degree or prediction market understanding, novice trader, don't understand options, contracts etc.. So take it with a pinch of salt but that's my prediction...)

Quote from: xeroc on August 26, 2014, 07:09:51 PM
Brian organized a "How To Use The Wallet" - webinar with already 1000 users registered
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=7254.new#new

Nice! I signed up for my wife and I to watch.

Brian organized a "How To Use The Wallet" - webinar with already 1000 users registered
https://bitsharestalk.org/index.php?topic=7254.new#new

Totally agree with this... This is very dangerous. If there is a big theft from the exchanges then we are f..cked and I doubt we will ever recover since it is still very early stages..

On the other hand the client crashes very often and people may be concerned about how secure are the BitsharesX client. Especially newbies like me...I think we need reassurances that security wise it is more secure to keep our funds within the BitshaesX.

More related to BitUSD manipulation than price but...

It seems the use of leverage gives big players a greater incentive to engage in price manipulation with BitUSD/BTSX?

The hurdle new users have to overcome when first registering an account potentially encourages new users & speculators to leave more BTSX on the two large exchanges than there should be.

This creates a significant hack/theft and now manipulation risk.

I think BTSX should be actively encouraging people to keep BTSX in their wallets and off the exchanges even more than others and yet our current model does the opposite.

Poloniex apparently has some initial wallet funding assistance, I think we should encourage BTC38 and bter to implement a similar feature too?

QuoteI think they are referencing USD/bitUSD.  $.70 per bitUSD.  30 cents below where the peg should be.

Yes obviously...I was at work and just read it quickly so I missunderstood...I am also a bit slow  ::)

IT'S ON! :D

I think they are referencing USD/bitUSD.  $.70 per bitUSD.  30 cents below where the peg should be.

Are you guys implying that no one will short bitusd below i.e. $0.45 - $0.7?  that is x10 - x20 the usd/btsx current price and you are saying that no one will be doing that because bitusd is not proven to peg the usd? or i misunderstand something? because if this is what we are discussing here I hate to be a spoiler but if this was the case no one would be selling now at these prices and unfortunately people do sell..

Of course as my good friend Toast said:

QuoteIf any motherfucker dares to short at $0.7 I will eat his collateral like a mama bear eats baby bear hunters

so if that statement holds that will be nice...

Quote from: bytemaster on August 25, 2014, 03:10:26 PM

Quote from: Empirical1 on August 25, 2014, 03:02:04 PM

Quote from: bytemaster on August 25, 2014, 02:49:50 PM
The premium for shorting below the peg will be proportional to the interest rate paid for going long....  the farther from the peg, the higher the effective interest rate.

Yes this is kind of my understanding. I was just worried BTSX bulls would be willing to pay such a high interest rate to short right now it could move the price too far away from the peg but hopefully it will be fine.

I think it will be tempered against the risks of an unproven market.

+5%

Quote from: Empirical1 on August 25, 2014, 03:02:04 PM

Quote from: bytemaster on August 25, 2014, 02:49:50 PM
The premium for shorting below the peg will be proportional to the interest rate paid for going long....  the farther from the peg, the higher the effective interest rate.

Yes this is kind of my understanding. I was just worried BTSX bulls would be willing to pay such a high interest rate to short right now it could move the price too far away from the peg but hopefully it will be fine.

I think it will be tempered against the risks of an unproven market.