I think some of the valuations here are a bit optimistic and wishful thinking. That said in the long run they may become true and even greatly surpass the original investment.

However we should also take into account human nature and other factors. Many, including myself have been waiting to become liquid so we can unload some. Where I'm going with this is, let's assume for a moment that all investors are at least smart enough to not want to sell at a loss. The moment XTS becomes liquid, we should look at the lowest price, not the highest that AGS was being acquired at. In general people should not sell lower than that.

Then there are other factors. Even if I am a big believer in the ideas, the velocity of the team wasn't to my liking so, I think there is risk they will be outrun by competition.

Thirdly the Ethereum sale will be coming up, and I would definitely want to diversify and move some % from XTS to eth.

I'll try to do a more detailed analysis and display what prices people bought at, we should then use those as a theoretical floor, since people generally should not sell at a loss.

Exciting times indeed. Trading will be very emotional as well, there will be some fun volatility ahead. :)

Quote from: bitcoinerS on July 04, 2014, 01:36:16 AM

Quote from: BldSwtTrs on July 03, 2014, 09:06:23 PM

Quote from: bytemaster on July 03, 2014, 07:37:28 PM
I little bird told me that there may be something released real soon so these speculative pre-trades may be for very short-lived advantage.

When is soon?

Little bird did not say.

Quote from: BldSwtTrs on July 03, 2014, 09:06:23 PM

Quote from: bytemaster on July 03, 2014, 07:37:28 PM
I little bird told me that there may be something released real soon so these speculative pre-trades may be for very short-lived advantage.

When is soon?

Little bird did not say.

Quote from: bytemaster on July 03, 2014, 07:37:28 PM
I little bird told me that there may be something released real soon so these speculative pre-trades may be for very short-lived advantage.

When is soon?

Quote from: Zeus on July 03, 2014, 05:59:05 PM
I don't want to get out bid by Empirical so I will also agree on $20 mil and not $17 mil...

And since I am feeling very generous today I will buy $2,500 at $20 mil and another $1000 at $21 mil...Unfortunately after the $3,500 I will have no more money for any summer holidays..

what about PTS and the transition to TITAN
or donation's for AGS ?

Quote from: bytemaster on July 03, 2014, 07:52:53 PM

Quote from: Empirical1 on July 03, 2014, 07:48:15 PM

Quote from: bytemaster on July 03, 2014, 07:37:28 PM
I little bird told me that there may be something released real soon so these speculative pre-trades may be for very short-lived advantage.

Exciting stuff!!!   8)

(Hmm.. Or should we be a bit concerned BM thinks small animals are speaking to him?  :P )

I need to stay away from twitter...

:)

Quote from: Empirical1 on July 03, 2014, 07:48:15 PM

Quote from: bytemaster on July 03, 2014, 07:37:28 PM
I little bird told me that there may be something released real soon so these speculative pre-trades may be for very short-lived advantage.

Exciting stuff!!!   8)

(Hmm.. Or should we be a bit concerned BM thinks small animals are speaking to him?  :P )

I need to stay away from twitter...

Quote from: bytemaster on July 03, 2014, 07:37:28 PM
I little bird told me that there may be something released real soon so these speculative pre-trades may be for very short-lived advantage.

Exciting stuff!!!   8)

(Hmm.. Or should we be a bit concerned BM thinks small animals are speaking to him?  :P )

Quote from: Zeus on July 03, 2014, 07:28:44 PM
I am very curious... 15/52 people so far believe that the initial market cap will be between $10-20mil and still no one is accepting our offer for $20-$21 mil... Come on people... who will be the lucky one to get the $13,500 from me and Empirical1 and lock some good profits upon release...Don't be shy...come forward...

$10-20 million, I wish  :D

QuoteKing Leonidas: 'Pray they are that stupid. Pray we are that lucky.'

- King Leonidas from 300 (2006)

I little bird told me that there may be something released real soon so these speculative pre-trades may be for very short-lived advantage.

I am very curious... 15/52 people so far believe that the initial market cap will be between $10-20mil and still no one is accepting our offer for $20-$21 mil... Come on people... who will be the lucky one to get the $13,500 from me and Empirical1 and lock some good profits upon release...Don't be shy...come forward...

Quote from: Simeon II on July 03, 2014, 05:28:40 PM

I am not ready to lock in any of my losses ...

As negotiation go, I will use your approach and counter-offer:
- Whatever 10K USD buys @ 45 mil market cap.

Or

You can use my approach and offer something creative that that covers my losses, if BTS is at my prediction level at launch. Giving me the chance to go from 15 mil to 20 mil (at which level I will still be getting only 66% for a small fraction of my total position) just does not cut it.

You will not have losses, if you actually believe your expectations.

You have a maximum expectation of $15 million for the market.

Quote from: Simeon II on July 03, 2014, 12:38:55 PM
I personally see the initial price/capitalization at a range of 2X PTS to 1/3 PTS (meaning 2 to 15 Mil capitalization)

Quote from: Simeon II on July 03, 2014, 12:45:46 PM
I obviously disagree - 2 to 15 Mil is my prediction.

I have a minimum expectation of $30 million for the market.

Quote from: Empirical1 on July 03, 2014, 01:42:07 AM

I looked at coinmarketcap and PTS was valued at $25 million before the snapshot and $10 million after.
As PTS makes up 50% of XTS. I would think that means the market was valuing BitShares X @ circa $30 Million?
If that's the case, I think the market should be valuing it at, at least $30 million

...Obviously the valuation should be much higher now for multiple reasons, personally I'm kind of hoping there will be some people that need to sell because it's been a while since the snapshot and I want to buy moarrrrr...  :)

So our perfect trade is at +-$21 million

At that price I will get +-40% gain based on my minimum expectations of price at launch.

At that price you will get a +- 40% gain based on your maximum expectations of price at launch.

(You can always buy your shares back at the $15 million or less you believe the market will be and keep the few thousand as profit. Then you have no losses, only the same shares + $$ profit.)

Quote from: Simeon II on July 03, 2014, 12:38:55 PM
It is one thing to make estimations, it is totally deferent if you have to put your money where your mouth is (i.e. buy/sell at those prices). Do not take it personally, it is human nature.

You are the one talking about numbers & valuations that you don't believe at all  :D

I believe I have won this contest.

I don't want to get out bid by Empirical so I will also agree on $20 mil and not $17 mil...

And since I am feeling very generous today I will buy $2,500 at $20 mil and another $1000 at $21 mil...Unfortunately after the $3,500 I will have no more money for any summer holidays..

Quote from: Simeon II on July 03, 2014, 05:28:40 PM

Quote from: Empirical1 on July 03, 2014, 04:24:24 PM

Quote from: Simeon II on July 03, 2014, 12:38:55 PM

First – The bet is of the table now! Let that be clear.

I was trying to make several points .
It is one thing to make estimations, it is totally deferent if you have to put your money where your mouth is (i.e. buy/sell at those prices). Do not take it personally, it is human nature.

I am not ready to lock in any of my losses ...
As negotiation go, I will use the same approach as you - I can start considering again at:
- Whatever 10K USD buys @ 45 mil market cap.

As far as putting my money where my mouth is.

I hope you agree that there is a big difference between being able to buy on the market when the product is actually released and you have all the information about volume, depth & can gauge the interest/How people are receiving it? To make a deal before the market is a different proposition.

I know your bet is off the table. The best bet I can commit to now and offer is the following -

(Unfortunately, I cannot do anywhere close to your 1%.) But I am happy to buy $10 000 worth of XT now at a 20 million CAP now. So 0.05 % of the total shares,

The offer is available for next 24 hours, with the conditions

1. XTS is not trade-able on the market in the next 24 hours. 
2. Someone at I3 needs to handle the escrow and guarantee that I wll get 0.05% of the XTS supply for my $10 000.

I'm sure they are really busy, but maybe it will be good for publicity.
So you/someone else would just need to convince them to guarantee your side if you were interested in the bet.

I can transfer the BTC equivalent to I3 as soon as those conditions are met. (So there is nothing for them to guarantee from my side, only that they are willing to be escrow and to confirm that they've received my funds.)

You have misquoted me in your post above.

QuoteI am not ready to lock in any of my losses ...
As negotiation go, I will use the same approach as you - I can start considering again at:
- Whatever 10K USD buys @ 45 mil market cap.

This is you speaking, not me as indicated in your post.

$45 Million hey? At least we have found out where your real selling price is  :)

5.3X higher than your average expectation ($8.5 million) and 22.5X higher than your minimum expectation ($2 mil)...

I will leave my offer at $20 million standing according to the terms described in case you change your mind.

QuoteWhere is your valuation coming from? How can it be valued at less than pts? you do realize this is the protodac for bitshares x? i wouldn't be supprised if the market cap started at $100 mil. Unless ppl are absolutely desperate for money right now I don't see them selling their shares at such low prices. You have to be an idiot

Please don't put off potential golden gooses who are willing to give away their golden eggs   :)