Author Topic: Delegate Votes & AGS BTS  (Read 3874 times)

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Offline Ander

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I think its smart to not give away your trading strategy before it happens.

Just look at the good elliot wave chartists on bitcointalk.  Ryan closed his trading thread because whenever he would post, whales would use the information against him, and then chessnut started seeing the same thing once his thread got going strong. 

There is some guy in there who has been posting about his margin position.  He gets a margin call if bitocin hits $341 apparently.  How much do you want to bet that bitcoin will briefly hit $340.99 and screw him over, and then go back up?  Whales just love to fuck over new traders like that and profit from their margin calls.
« Last Edit: November 20, 2014, 10:00:17 pm by Ander »
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zerosum

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I have already set aside the 55K BTS to run this experiment. Granted I started several weeks after our favorite whale here, but my fund is in red also. I will publish every transaction after  BTS hits $2.5 a piece and  the fund is closed.

Sounds good. But why wait until $2.5 to publish? Could be quite a while before we get there.

No, I have decided on all my operations to be closed doors for the foreseeable future. 

Offline arhag

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I have already set aside the 55K BTS to run this experiment. Granted I started several weeks after our favorite whale here, but my fund is in red also. I will publish every transaction after  BTS hits $2.5 a piece and  the fund is closed.

Sounds good. But why wait until $2.5 to publish? Could be quite a while before we get there.

Offline Ander

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Shorting bitUSD is definitely not a conservative strategy.

I personally will not do it because i have been burned by margin in the past, and will never use it again.  At times like the present, I simply keep buying as many shares as I can as I get new money, and hold, without the need to worry about margin calls. 

Nothing can ever take my BTS away from me.  It could go to zero, but you are not getting my BTS unless the price goes back up to prices I am willing to sell at again. 

With a potential margin call I cannot use this strategy of averaging in during periods where the price is dropping. 
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zerosum

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So essentially, there is a person out there who went margin long somewhere between $250k and $750k worth of BTS, depending on how much he shorted to himself.  (That would be something like 15 to 50 million BTS).  Divide by 3 due to collateral, to show how many shares of BTS he was essentially long on margin.

And he is going to get a margin call in a few days, or have to cover before it happens.

No, he is saying that big short holder will have to close soon (in 6 days) due to the 30 days rule. For that person might be a wise decision to close even earlier to cut his losses, and BM also includes the market conditions that will make such a move more likely.[It is not very likely for his cover order to be triggered as it is @ about 90 BTS/BitUSD  (0.0111 bitUSD/BTS)]

Tonyk, see what I mean when I say it is not really fair to say your shorting strategy is conservative? If the USD price of BTS stays the same for the next 6 days, then this whale shorter is going to be forced to cover with a 33% drop in price of BTS. At no time during the last 24 days was there an opportunity to cover and reshort to compound gains at a BitUSD/BTS price above $0.0225. This means it is very likely that this whale will lose 2.5 to 7.5 million BTS because of this process (or 16% of their stake). I'm not saying you can't make a lot of money shorting BitUSD, but I just don't think it is fair to call it a conservative investment strategy.
I have already set aside the 55K BTS to run this experiment. Granted I started several weeks after our favorite whale here, but my fund is in red also. I will publish every transaction after  BTS hits $2.5 a piece and  the fund is closed.
And I still consider this fairly conservative strategy... maybe I am too risk tolerant.

Offline arhag

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So essentially, there is a person out there who went margin long somewhere between $250k and $750k worth of BTS, depending on how much he shorted to himself.  (That would be something like 15 to 50 million BTS).  Divide by 3 due to collateral, to show how many shares of BTS he was essentially long on margin.

And he is going to get a margin call in a few days, or have to cover before it happens.

No, he is saying that big short holder will have to close soon (in 6 days) due to the 30 days rule. For that person might be a wise decision to close even earlier to cut his losses, and BM also includes the market conditions that will make such a move more likely.[It is not very likely for his cover order to be triggered as it is @ about 90 BTS/BitUSD  (0.0111 bitUSD/BTS)]

Tonyk, see what I mean when I say it is not really fair to say your shorting strategy is conservative? If the USD price of BTS stays the same for the next 6 days, then this whale shorter is going to be forced to cover with a 33% drop in price of BTS. At no time during the last 24 days was there an opportunity to cover and reshort to compound gains at a BitUSD/BTS price above $0.0225. This means it is very likely that this whale will lose 2.5 to 7.5 million BTS because of this process (or 16% of their stake). I'm not saying you can't make a lot of money shorting BitUSD, but I just don't think it is fair to call it a conservative investment strategy.

Offline bytemaster


2 quick questions if you do not mind BM. I do not find them inappropriate, but if you do, simply disregard them BM.

1.Aren't the BTC donated to AGS and later sold for BTS(X) considered part of the AGS fund? By the 94 mil number it does not seem to be the case.
2.How many of those BTC still need to be converted to BTS?

1. is true, but those funds are a separate wallet as I didn't manage the sale. 

2. We stopped buying bts long ago. 
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Offline Ander

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So essentially, there is a person out there who went margin long somewhere between $250k and $750k worth of BTS, depending on how much he shorted to himself.  (That would be something like 15 to 50 million BTS).  Divide by 3 due to collateral, to show how many shares of BTS he was essentially long on margin.

And he is going to get a margin call in a few days, or have to cover before it happens.

And bytemaster is going to use these funds to buy the low that is created by this margin call.
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Offline biophil

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I don't understand all these, but are you saying you expect the downtrend to continue? :(

He is saying the opposite.  He plans to sell bitUSD to buy BTS.

Yes he does, but because some have to close due to downtrend.
No, he is saying that he will has to close soon (in 6 days) due to the 30 days rule. For that person might be a wise decision to close even earlier to cut his losses.

Except that I am fairly certain that person shorted to himself, which means he has the bitUSD sitting around already to cover with. Which means I believe the impact on the market will be minimal.

Except I know for a fact that he is really short at least 250 K usd.  Because I know people that collectively hold over 400k usd  and there are only 900k bit usd.

How nice it must be to know these things!
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Offline bytemaster


I don't understand all these, but are you saying you expect the downtrend to continue? :(

He is saying the opposite.  He plans to sell bitUSD to buy BTS.

Yes he does, but because some have to close due to downtrend.
No, he is saying that he will has to close soon (in 6 days) due to the 30 days rule. For that person might be a wise decision to close even earlier to cut his losses.

Except that I am fairly certain that person shorted to himself, which means he has the bitUSD sitting around already to cover with. Which means I believe the impact on the market will be minimal.

Except I know for a fact that he is really short at least 250 K usd.  Because I know people that collectively hold over 400k usd  and there are only 900k bit usd. 
For the latest updates checkout my blog: http://bytemaster.bitshares.org
Anything said on these forums does not constitute an intent to create a legal obligation or contract between myself and anyone else.   These are merely my opinions and I reserve the right to change them at any time.

Offline graffenwalder

Why not set a good example and put in a bit of interest?

I see about 50 million collateral at 0% interest.

Wouldn't a bit of interest make bitusd more appealing and thus BTS more also?

Offline biophil

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I don't understand all these, but are you saying you expect the downtrend to continue? :(

He is saying the opposite.  He plans to sell bitUSD to buy BTS.

Yes he does, but because some have to close due to downtrend.
No, he is saying that he will has to close soon (in 6 days) due to the 30 days rule. For that person might be a wise decision to close even earlier to cut his losses.

Except that I am fairly certain that person shorted to himself, which means he has the bitUSD sitting around already to cover with. Which means I believe the impact on the market will be minimal.
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zerosum

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I don't understand all these, but are you saying you expect the downtrend to continue? :(

He is saying the opposite.  He plans to sell bitUSD to buy BTS.

Yes he does, but because some have to close due to downtrend.
No, he is saying that big short holder will have to close soon (in 6 days) due to the 30 days rule. For that person might be a wise decision to close even earlier to cut his losses, and BM also includes the market conditions that will make such a move more likely.[It is not very likely for his cover order to be triggered as it is @ about 90 BTS/BitUSD  (0.0111 bitUSD/BTS)]
« Last Edit: November 20, 2014, 09:10:28 pm by tonyk2 »

Offline biophil

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I don't understand all these, but are you saying you expect the downtrend to continue? :(

He is saying the opposite.  He plans to sell bitUSD to buy BTS.

Yes he does, but because some have to close due to downtrend.

No, because some have to close because they're about to expire.
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sumantso

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I don't understand all these, but are you saying you expect the downtrend to continue? :(

He is saying the opposite.  He plans to sell bitUSD to buy BTS.

Yes he does, but because some have to close due to downtrend.