Author Topic: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]  (Read 3902 times)

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Offline btswildpig

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #15 on: March 08, 2015, 01:24:44 pm »
I am fairly new here, from my (rather limited) perspective it went a bit downhill with the whole PR blunder and dev silence on the forums.

How can that be a good thing? IMO there needs to exist some back and forth between users and developers, otherwise it seems to me that the devs live in their nice cathedral in the clouds away from the userbase, and the users don't know very well what the devs are up to and even if the users' opinions matter at all.

+1000%

The only evidence we have at the moment that anything is being done is the github logs.

I remember getting into debates on reddit about how the BitShares developers are really transparent because theyre always on the forums answering questions. This is no longer the case.

we have another debate and that was how do they find the time to be always on the forum and answer questions one by one and still working on coding ?
Because I tried , if I follow the same pace , I couldn't do anything else for that day .
Answer question according to the devs own time table is good ( like see a question , answer in 2-3 days ), always on forum and always quickly answer question is a little scary .

Those times could have better spent , like answer questions for all of the users by providing a extensive help file , which is still lack of at this moment .

I saw Xeroc didn't even know about a serious manual short cover bug from 1 months ago (which is shock to me because if guys like him didn't know then what about the users ) , which is weird because that bug was asked and answered on the forum multiple times as I recall , but it seems that those time spent have already been forgotten . Only guys like me can remember because I spent tons of time on the forum . The bug seems to be fixed on Github .

By the way ... the devs has been answering questions these days ..... you just didn't notice because the frequency is reduced , and some of them you don't know they're "core dev" . And from the "closed issues" in Github you can see their development speed has been increased .

I want to use Stan's "Iceberg" metaphor , even when you don't see the devs telling you they're doing things , they're actually doing more things ....

edit :
by the way , this is the 15 time in 10 minute that I click this post to see who has replied ..... so you can see how addictive this forum stuff is ....
I want to leave and do some more important things , but I just couldn't resist going back , because I feel like I'm in a conversation while it's not .
help me , please  :-X
« Last Edit: March 08, 2015, 01:44:37 pm by btswildpig »
这个是私人账号,表达的一切言论均不代表任何团队和任何人。This is my personal account , anything I said with this account will be my opinion alone and has nothing to do with any group.

Offline sittingduck

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #16 on: March 08, 2015, 03:03:30 pm »
Forums are addicting.  I suspect leaving the forums is as hard for the devs as it is for those who want to interact with them. 


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Offline btswildpig

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #17 on: March 08, 2015, 03:14:53 pm »
Forums are addicting.  I suspect leaving the forums is as hard for the devs as it is for those who want to interact with them. 


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I think if anyone wants to report actual development issues still will be addressed .
Try write more suggestions of improving the wallet , you'll see .
这个是私人账号,表达的一切言论均不代表任何团队和任何人。This is my personal account , anything I said with this account will be my opinion alone and has nothing to do with any group.

Offline carpet ride

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #18 on: March 08, 2015, 03:17:24 pm »

edit :
by the way , this is the 15 time in 10 minute that I click this post to see who has replied ..... so you can see how addictive this forum stuff is ....
I want to leave and do some more important things , but I just couldn't resist going back , because I feel like I'm in a conversation while it's not .
help me , please  :-X

Truer words...


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Offline xeroc

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #19 on: March 08, 2015, 04:18:54 pm »
To clarify, I do remember the shorting issue and thought it made it into one of the recent releases ..

Also I'd like to remark that even even though BitShares takes almost 100% of my spare time, it has gotten very difficult to follow every discussion AND contribute where possible ..

IMHO, things are moving forward alot faster than 9 months ago .. the baby is maturing as is the community ..
+5%!
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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #20 on: March 08, 2015, 04:21:33 pm »
OK. A lot of opinions on ' forum addictiveness' , 'PR of silence' is the best / worst thing ever, Xeroc's knowledge of every possible bug; plus a healthy dose of wildpigs wisdom on wide range of subjects - from 'people will short more if they are not afraid of bugs' to 'devs will respond to development issues (i.e. not like the OP post, where no such issues were raised)'...

Anyone with opinion on the main issue (aka between the 'short version' tags) in the OP?

Offline btswildpig

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #21 on: March 08, 2015, 04:34:07 pm »
OK. A lot of opinions on ' forum addictiveness' , 'PR of silence' is the best / worst thing ever, Xeroc's knowledge of every possible bug; plus a healthy dose of wildpigs wisdom on wide range of subjects - from 'people will short more if they are not afraid of bugs' to 'devs will respond to development issues (i.e. not like the OP post, where no such issues were raised)'...

Anyone with opinion on the main issue (aka between the 'short version' tags) in the OP?

If shorts are gonna have a wonderful life according to your improvement  , and in the mean time there is still no significant increase in adoption of BitAssets , what will happen then ?

Will that be just like when BTA was first brought online last year and those BTA are produced more than market demand ?
这个是私人账号,表达的一切言论均不代表任何团队和任何人。This is my personal account , anything I said with this account will be my opinion alone and has nothing to do with any group.

zerosum

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #22 on: March 08, 2015, 04:52:12 pm »
OK. A lot of opinions on ' forum addictiveness' , 'PR of silence' is the best / worst thing ever, Xeroc's knowledge of every possible bug; plus a healthy dose of wildpigs wisdom on wide range of subjects - from 'people will short more if they are not afraid of bugs' to 'devs will respond to development issues (i.e. not like the OP post, where no such issues were raised)'...

Anyone with opinion on the main issue (aka between the 'short version' tags) in the OP?

If shorts are gonna have a wonderful life according to your improvement  , and in the mean time there is still no significant increase in adoption of BitAssets , what will happen then ?

Will that be just like when BTA was first brought online last year and those BTA are produced more than market demand ?
Did you bother to read the OP wildpig?
If yes, how did you come to that conclusion?
Shorts will not have wonderful life - they will have in some regards  more miserable life than now! But their misery will serve the purpose to secure the BTS system not just make shorts life  worse in unnecessary ways and make the BTS system worse at the same time.

I suggest 200% total collateral and margin call triggered by price movement of as little as 15% from shorting price. My solution is not in the OP as I do not intended this as a to push for my solution here. There are other solutions that are even better, but need more code changes, btw.

Offline xeroc

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #23 on: March 08, 2015, 04:55:40 pm »
Does you margin call include a 5% penalty? or would it come for "free"?
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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #24 on: March 08, 2015, 05:01:00 pm »
Does you margin call include a 5% penalty? or would it come for "free"?
It is up for discussion...but the same way it works currently - the 5% penalty is somewhat independent of the margin call trigger price - as  it is subtracted (or not) after the margin call is triggered and even after the order is filled.

I can see the argument for removing/reducing it though. ...and it is not essential for system security, it is more of a (smallish ?) income stream for the system.
« Last Edit: March 08, 2015, 05:13:31 pm by tonyk2 »

Offline arhag

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #25 on: March 08, 2015, 11:15:47 pm »
I suggest 200% total collateral and margin call triggered by price movement of as little as 15% from shorting price.

I'm fine with this. It still provides more than 40% sudden drop protection against undercollateralization (compared to the current 50%). If the 200% minimum initial collateral is used, margin calls happen when the price (in BitAsset/BTS) drops by 15% from initial shorting price (compared to current 33%). To recover the current 33% drop margin call protection, one would simply need to provide an initial collateral percentage a little higher than the minimum (253% rather than 200%, but that is still better than 300%)
« Last Edit: March 08, 2015, 11:25:33 pm by arhag »

Offline BTSdac

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #26 on: March 09, 2015, 02:17:10 am »
Now shorted BTA should been covered in one month , it is so short . many people think BTS is bullish in future , but  cannot know in one month . so there only a few people to short BTA.  can we introduce one month short ,  there month short  ,six month short. one year short .  it mean cover the short in one,there ,six twelve months respectively. and there is a required MIN yield per type of short
For example,
Short type                     Cover deadline          required MIN yield             required MIN collateral
one month short            in one month                      0%                                         300%
there month short          in there month                   4%                                         300%
six month short              in six  month                       8%                                        400%
twelve month short        in twelve month                  16%                                       400%

now translation queue according to yield.
so
queue yield for queue =Yield supply by shorter -required MIN yield


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Offline liondani

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #27 on: March 09, 2015, 02:35:32 am »
Now shorted BTA should been covered in one month , it is so short . many people think BTS is bullish in future , but  cannot know in one month . so there only a few people to short BTA.  can we introduce one month short ,  there month short  ,six month short. one year short .  it mean cover the short in one,there ,six twelve months respectively. and there is a required MIN yield per type of short
For example,
Short type                     Cover deadline          required MIN yield             required MIN collateral
one month short            in one month                      0%                                         300%
there month short          in there month                   4%                                         300%
six month short              in six  month                       8%                                        400%
twelve month short        in twelve month                  16%                                       400%

now translation queue according to yield.
so
queue yield for queue =Yield supply by shorter -required MIN yield
+5
That proposal makes absolute sense to me!

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Offline arhag

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #28 on: March 09, 2015, 05:54:51 am »
Now shorted BTA should been covered in one month , it is so short . many people think BTS is bullish in future , but  cannot know in one month . so there only a few people to short BTA.  can we introduce one month short ,  there month short  ,six month short. one year short .  it mean cover the short in one,there ,six twelve months respectively. and there is a required MIN yield per type of short
For example,
Short type                     Cover deadline          required MIN yield             required MIN collateral
one month short            in one month                      0%                                         300%
there month short          in there month                   4%                                         300%
six month short              in six  month                       8%                                        400%
twelve month short        in twelve month                  16%                                       400%

now translation queue according to yield.
so
queue yield for queue =Yield supply by shorter -required MIN yield

Yield harvesting means that the yield provided by the short does not necessarily benefit the long even though the long does suffer from this change because of lower volume on the BitAsset/BTS exchange (due to less frequent forced turnover) and an inability to guarantee exiting into BTS in 1 month. The increased minimum collateral also doesn't protect against undercollateralization risk much because the margin call would still be the same. So in short, all this does is add unnecessary disadvantages to shorts to compensate for the huge advantage it provides for longer terms, but it does not provide any advantages to the long even though it causes huge disadvantages to the long.

I don't think it is a good idea to have different term lengths within a given BitAsset/BTS market. It is fine if a different BitAsset variant had a different term length (for example the current BitUSD could be BitUSD-30 and we could have another asset BitUSD-90 which had term lengths of 3 months; these two BitUSDs would of course not be fungible with one another), but within a single BitAsset I think it is better for the terms to be the same. We can then argue whether the standard BitAssets we have today should have a term length of 30 days or if we should extend it a little. Personally, I think 30 days is fine.

In fact, when we start discussing different term lengths, I think what we really should be talking about are bond markets. There can be 1-month BitUSD bonds, 3-month BitUSD bonds, 6-month BitUSD bonds, etc. Then by selling it for some price less than its nominal value to someone going long, it effectively sets the interest rate in a way that cannot be harvested like yield can. So, the people who want to speculate on USD/BTS price over the long term would use the bond market, but people who want cryptocash (perhaps with no to little yield) would want BitUSD with a short 30-day term limit to ensure a nice market peg.

Also keep in mind that it is already possible today to effectively extend your term length by using a larger effective collateral. That is what this post was all about. In that post I discussed how it was possible to effectively have three consecutive terms without realizing losses (given certain assumptions like the price never dropping more than 33% within a 30 day period) until the end of the third term. If I assume 7 days is allocated for finding the right opportunity to self-short at 0% interest (meaning I assume it is possible to find the market in a state where there are no BitUSD sell orders at or below the price feed within a 7 day window) then that means in the worst case I have 23 days per each term. If I want 4 consecutive terms to allow for 92 consecutive days (three months) without realizing losses, I need to choose N = 3 (see my linked post) which gives a p_3 = 20% and means that I can only (conservatively) short sell at most 10% of the value of my BTS. Essentially this means that my effective collateral (BTS I have allocated for this purpose and cannot be used for other purposes) is not a little over 200% (nearly all in collateral) but rather 1000% collateral (200% in collateral and 800% held on the side for roll overs). If by the end of the third month I can auto-cover at the price feed which is at a price (in BitUSD/BTS) that is larger than the price I initially shorted at (3 months prior), then I will gain a BTS profit.
« Last Edit: March 09, 2015, 06:21:53 am by arhag »

Offline xiahui135

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #29 on: March 09, 2015, 01:30:56 pm »
Now shorted BTA should been covered in one month , it is so short . many people think BTS is bullish in future , but  cannot know in one month . so there only a few people to short BTA.  can we introduce one month short ,  there month short  ,six month short. one year short .  it mean cover the short in one,there ,six twelve months respectively. and there is a required MIN yield per type of short
For example,
Short type                     Cover deadline          required MIN yield             required MIN collateral
one month short            in one month                      0%                                         300%
there month short          in there month                   4%                                         300%
six month short              in six  month                       8%                                        400%
twelve month short        in twelve month                  16%                                       400%

now translation queue according to yield.
so
queue yield for queue =Yield supply by shorter -required MIN yield

it fall form 0.3 CNY to 0.06 CNY, just in half a year.
it is hard to say what will happen in a year. even 10 times of collateral will not enough. But if collateral is too much, people have no interest to short.