Author Topic: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]  (Read 3911 times)

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Offline Helikopterben

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #30 on: March 09, 2015, 04:42:40 pm »
The current 300% collateral (200% from shorts) puts the shorts in unnecessarily unfair position.

 +5%

Perhaps circuit breakers could be used to protect markets from not being able to cover all margin calls in a timely manner if margin requirements are reduced.  If the market falls X percentage in X period of time, then halt trading for X period of time to sort out all margin calls and resume trading after X period of time.  Force shorts who are within X percentage of margin call to go ahead and cover at market before trading is resumed.  If the market goes into panic mode, then perhaps the system can force that to happen in an orderly fashion with circuit breakers.   

As for the 30 day forced cover... I would like to see this rule extremely relaxed if not completely eliminated.  Maybe it could be phased out by changing the rule from 30 to 60 to 90 to 180 to 360 over time.  Depending on how that goes, we could possibly leave the rule at 360 days or 720 days or higher... just a thought.

IMO, futures and options markets are the closest model to look at for how to replicate a collateralized, leverage-based financial market onto a decentralized format.  In fact, these legacy markets work good-enough except for the problem of trust, which blockchain technology is intended to solve.  The user experience of these legacy markets don't have to be replicated exactly (and probably can't be) but these legacy systems will definitely provide a guide as to how it should be done... and so far I believe bitshares is close to getting the right formula, but as for now, short sellers liquidity providers are definitely being unfairly disadgvantaged.

Offline BTSdac

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #31 on: March 15, 2015, 07:21:59 am »
Now shorted BTA should been covered in one month , it is so short . many people think BTS is bullish in future , but  cannot know in one month . so there only a few people to short BTA.  can we introduce one month short ,  there month short  ,six month short. one year short .  it mean cover the short in one,there ,six twelve months respectively. and there is a required MIN yield per type of short
For example,
Short type                     Cover deadline          required MIN yield             required MIN collateral
one month short            in one month                      0%                                         300%
there month short          in there month                   4%                                         300%
six month short              in six  month                       8%                                        400%
twelve month short        in twelve month                  16%                                       400%

now translation queue according to yield.
so
queue yield for queue =Yield supply by shorter -required MIN yield

it fall form 0.3 CNY to 0.06 CNY, just in half a year.
it is hard to say what will happen in a year. even 10 times of collateral will not enough. But if collateral is too much, people have no interest to short.
you can cover you short in any time.
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Offline BTSdac

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #32 on: April 04, 2015, 03:59:05 am »
Now shorted BTA should been covered in one month , it is so short . many people think BTS is bullish in future , but  cannot know in one month . so there only a few people to short BTA.  can we introduce one month short ,  there month short  ,six month short. one year short .  it mean cover the short in one,there ,six twelve months respectively. and there is a required MIN yield per type of short
For example,
Short type                     Cover deadline          required MIN yield             required MIN collateral
one month short            in one month                      0%                                         300%
there month short          in there month                   4%                                         300%
six month short              in six  month                       8%                                        400%
twelve month short        in twelve month                  16%                                       400%

now translation queue according to yield.
so
queue yield for queue =Yield supply by shorter -required MIN yield

Yield harvesting means that the yield provided by the short does not necessarily benefit the long even though the long does suffer from this change because of lower volume on the BitAsset/BTS exchange (due to less frequent forced turnover) and an inability to guarantee exiting into BTS in 1 month. The increased minimum collateral also doesn't protect against undercollateralization risk much because the margin call would still be the same. So in short, all this does is add unnecessary disadvantages to shorts to compensate for the huge advantage it provides for longer terms, but it does not provide any advantages to the long even though it causes huge disadvantages to the long.
BTS system is new system ,so we try find the similar system in real world ,you know short BTA much much similar with lend money from bank with collateral bts
as the real bank , we can lend money for different period with  different   yield ,so it is reasonable .
I don't think it is a good idea to have different term lengths within a given BitAsset/BTS market. It is fine if a different BitAsset variant had a different term length (for example the current BitUSD could be BitUSD-30 and we could have another asset BitUSD-90 which had term lengths of 3 months; these two BitUSDs would of course not be fungible with one another), but within a single BitAsset I think it is better for the terms to be the same. We can then argue whether the standard BitAssets we have today should have a term length of 30 days or if we should extend it a little. Personally, I think 30 days is fine.
yes it maybe a methods , but as you said, they be fungible with one another
In fact, when we start discussing different term lengths, I think what we really should be talking about are bond markets. There can be 1-month BitUSD bonds, 3-month BitUSD bonds, 6-month BitUSD bonds, etc. Then by selling it for some price less than its nominal value to someone going long, it effectively sets the interest rate in a way that cannot be harvested like yield can. So, the people who want to speculate on USD/BTS price over the long term would use the bond market, but people who want cryptocash (perhaps with no to little yield) would want BitUSD with a short 30-day term limit to ensure a nice market peg.

Also keep in mind that it is already possible today to effectively extend your term length by using a larger effective collateral. That is what this post was all about. In that post I discussed how it was possible to effectively have three consecutive terms without realizing losses (given certain assumptions like the price never dropping more than 33% within a 30 day period) until the end of the third term. If I assume 7 days is allocated for finding the right opportunity to self-short at 0% interest (meaning I assume it is possible to find the market in a state where there are no BitUSD sell orders at or below the price feed within a 7 day window) then that means in the worst case I have 23 days per each term. If I want 4 consecutive terms to allow for 92 consecutive days (three months) without realizing losses, I need to choose N = 3 (see my linked post) which gives a p_3 = 20% and means that I can only (conservatively) short sell at most 10% of the value of my BTS. Essentially this means that my effective collateral (BTS I have allocated for this purpose and cannot be used for other purposes) is not a little over 200% (nearly all in collateral) but rather 1000% collateral (200% in collateral and 800% held on the side for roll overs). If by the end of the third month I can auto-cover at the price feed which is at a price (in BitUSD/BTS) that is larger than the price I initially shorted at (3 months prior), then I will gain a BTS profit.
yes people can extend their short , but they need more bts to finish it , can the process is a little complex。it would block some of people to short BTA because they don`t want to operate per week or months.
and also ,now we can saw ,there are a problem in our marketing if we open the marketing ,we lack BTA now, 
less and less people short BTA now
github.com :pureland
BTS2.0 API :ws://139.196.37.179:8091
BTS2.0 API 数据源ws://139.196.37.179:8091

Offline liondani

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Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #33 on: April 04, 2015, 04:13:59 pm »
less and less people short BTA now

yes, because they are almost bankrupt(?)... (ironically the best supporters)

Offline fuzzy

Re: Major factor for the BTS price now and in the future [my take]
« Reply #34 on: April 04, 2015, 04:20:34 pm »
To clarify, I do remember the shorting issue and thought it made it into one of the recent releases ..

Also I'd like to remark that even even though BitShares takes almost 100% of my spare time, it has gotten very difficult to follow every discussion AND contribute where possible ..

IMHO, things are moving forward alot faster than 9 months ago .. the baby is maturing as is the community ..
+5%!

i can agree with this 100%
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