Author Topic: What will happen if nobody shorts ?  (Read 4172 times)

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Offline karnal

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Offline xeroc

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May it be that no one is shorting because of the "invalid asset amount bug"?

Offline karnal

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@ inirizushi... I feel you bro...Every time I buy the price goes down, everytime I sell the price goes up..::) ::)

@Ander, any idea why today this big CNY volume especially within BTS exchange? We beat BTC38 in volume..And why the bitusd doesn't follow?

Would really like to buy some bitUSD, but call price is ~160 and lowest sell 180.

Offline xiahui135

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This is pretty crazy with the amount of shorts that are locked in right now.  What will be really interesting will be to watch the price of BTS keep going up on the exchanges.  When will the bitUSD holders blink and start selling the bitUSD at the peg? 200, 150, 100?
Because it is not pegged asset.
If we want to peg, we need do market make.

Offline mf-tzo

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@ inirizushi... I feel you bro...Every time I buy the price goes down, everytime I sell the price goes up..::) ::)

@Ander, any idea why today this big CNY volume especially within BTS exchange? We beat BTC38 in volume..And why the bitusd doesn't follow?

Offline Ander

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But if really the price will go up, then why is there so few shorts ? I'm pretty sure that as soon as I'll start shorting again, we'll have a 30-days downtrend :D

Everybody doesnt want to short bitassets because they got burned hard, and because they are waiting for bitassets 2.0 probably. 

Most people dont end up benefitting from margin trading.  Generally if most people are on one side of the boat, they lose.  The few and the lucky win and the rest lose.


I prefer to buy and hold because if you are wrong about your timing but right about the long term fundamentals, you can just wait long enough and eventually profit.  So shorting bitAssets is not for me, I'm just going to buy and hold BTS.  Buying a cryptocurrency is risky enough, without margin!



That said, the premium on bitUSD is a profit opportunity.  But if you want to profit form it without much risk, you need to find a way to do all the conversions very fast, as a risk free arbitrage.  And since we dont have a solid bitUSD to fiat USD gateway set up, we cant really do that right now.
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Offline inarizushi

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because I'm still bearish (just when price goes up.. I've been almost 100% wrong all the way down, now I'm wrong again on the way up).

Why be bearish now?  As soon as it goes up a bit more, giving us a higher high and higher low, or holds this level a bit longer and the daily moving average crossover happens, no one is going to want to sell any BTS.  Silly time to be bearish. ;)

Obviously I'm not bearish anymore when I see a +8% on CMC :). I also may just not understand the whole implications of "bear". I assume it means you believe that the price will go down in the short time, which I did... But I didn't act as a rational bear selling everything. I just happened to have bought some bitAssets at the low.

But if really the price will go up, then why is there so few shorts ? I'm pretty sure that as soon as I'll start shorting again, we'll have a 30-days downtrend :D
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Offline Ander

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because I'm still bearish (just when price goes up.. I've been almost 100% wrong all the way down, now I'm wrong again on the way up).

Why be bearish now?  As soon as it goes up a bit more, giving us a higher high and higher low, or holds this level a bit longer and the daily moving average crossover happens, no one is going to want to sell any BTS.  Silly time to be bearish. ;)
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Offline inarizushi

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I understand that bitusd holders may want the security and don't want to sell their bitusd even at 200,100,50,30,1..That is fair enough...

What I don't understand is why someone will pay now +10% to buy bitusd to cover? Is it because i.e. someone can start dumping BTS like crazy on the external exchanges, manipulate the market and trigger margin calls? I really can't think of anything else..If that is the case and something like that happens at these levels then...we might as well go back to buy some earthcoins, or worldcoins etc..BTS will become worthless..

Relative orders obviously is a must.
I have no idea of how the cover orders behave right now, and even less in the future (for example, in what orders will they be covered ?). If the new 17000 lines of code thing is full of bugs/doesn't deliver for any reason, and the price crashes again, I certainly don't want my BTS to be locked.

And yes, I'm a bit paranoid of a whale attack. 70000 bitUSD in cover orders, that must be around 70000 * 200 * 3 = 42 millions BTS locked. With 26 bitBTC and 400 bitSILVER, that makes more than 50 millions. I have the impression it's possible to get a large portion of those by manipulating the price, but maybe I'm completely wrong on that. So yes, I'm willing to buy over price feed (not 10% though), because I'm still bearish (just when price goes up.. I've been almost 100% wrong all the way down, now I'm wrong again on the way up).

Actually, I wasn't sure before today that I could still manually cover the expired shorts. In my mind I could not, that's stupid, I should have asked.
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Offline mf-tzo

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I understand that bitusd holders may want the security and don't want to sell their bitusd even at 200,100,50,30,1..That is fair enough...

What I don't understand is why someone will pay now +10% to buy bitusd to cover? Is it because i.e. someone can start dumping BTS like crazy on the external exchanges, manipulate the market and trigger margin calls? I really can't think of anything else..If that is the case and something like that happens at these levels then...we might as well go back to buy some earthcoins, or worldcoins etc..BTS will become worthless..

Relative orders obviously is a must.

Offline liondani

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Can someone please explain me why people want to buy bitusd above the peg and not asking the feed price for bitusd?
I understand in the past there was the need to cover and hence the demand for bitusd at 10% more expensive but I don't get that now.
Why don't you remove your buy  usd orders above peg so the sellers of bitusd are essentially obliged to sell their precious bitusd at parity with usd?
What am I missing again? ???

I think if relative orders would be possible we would not have these problems right now....
On so volatile market how to sell or buy really  to the price feed? I make an order now and after some hours I must check the order again to change it one more time... Nobody will do it except market makers using a script... PLEASE IMPLEMENT RELATIVE ORDERS SHORTLY except you are all happy with zero liquidity....

Offline lil_jay890

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This is pretty crazy with the amount of shorts that are locked in right now.  What will be really interesting will be to watch the price of BTS keep going up on the exchanges.  When will the bitUSD holders blink and start selling the bitUSD at the peg? 200, 150, 100?

Offline mf-tzo

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Can someone please explain me why people want to buy bitusd above the peg and not asking the feed price for bitusd?
I understand in the past there was the need to cover and hence the demand for bitusd at 10% more expensive but I don't get that now.
Why don't you remove your buy  usd orders above peg so the sellers of bitusd are essentially obliged to sell their precious bitusd at parity with usd?
What am I missing again? ???

Offline inarizushi

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70000 bitUSD are now waiting to cover. If a whale came and shut the BTS price down, all the collateral of those 70000 bitUSD and of all the other bitAssets waiting in cover orders could be collected.

Nobody seems to care, but I have the feeling that we'll go down again soon if nobody addresses that problem. Isn't there anybody here that could tell me why I shouldn't worry of all those cover orders accumulating ?

cause we're moving to bitassets 2.0?

There was no clear announcements that bitAssets 1.0 would be converted into bitAssets 2.0. Actually the contrary was announced initially. (Did I miss something ?). The problem is only made worse.

yes you missed a lot.  nothing is getting converted.  But functional improvements like bitassets 2.0 should PREVENT  the price of BTS from dropping.

Hahahaha. I've been around for 9 months and all kinds of things were sure fire gonna prevent the price of BTS from dropping for all that time.
Having tens of millions of BTS locked in cover orders at the mercy of a big whaling doesn't look very preventable to me, especially not by a new, untested feature that will many people angry.
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Offline topcandle

70000 bitUSD are now waiting to cover. If a whale came and shut the BTS price down, all the collateral of those 70000 bitUSD and of all the other bitAssets waiting in cover orders could be collected.

Nobody seems to care, but I have the feeling that we'll go down again soon if nobody addresses that problem. Isn't there anybody here that could tell me why I shouldn't worry of all those cover orders accumulating ?

cause we're moving to bitassets 2.0?

There was no clear announcements that bitAssets 1.0 would be converted into bitAssets 2.0. Actually the contrary was announced initially. (Did I miss something ?). The problem is only made worse.

yes you missed a lot.  nothing is getting converted.  But functional improvements like bitassets 2.0 should PREVENT  the price of BTS from dropping. 
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